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I think the good argument is that with the very high level of leverage in the market and people spending their money on the assumption of high equity/bitcoin/re
by boringg 4y ago
I think the good argument is that with the very high level of leverage in the market and people spending their money on the assumption of high equity/bitcoin/real estate values - as the fed shuts down access to cheap money and increases interest rates across the economy - those over levered people tip into getting margins-called, repo'ed, write offs to credit card companies and people losing their homes. I hope that isn't the case but that's the argument.
The alliterative is inflation getting into double digits and then the fed having to do even more dramatic things such as increasing the federal funds rate to 20% (highest on record).
There are some specific things right now but it feels like they aren't large enough to cause the systemic problems just temporary fires.