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Sorry, I just saw your comment now. Not sure if you'll notice this reply. > But I don’t see a justification for fixing housing prices. There is no justificati
by jbay808 4y ago
Sorry, I just saw your comment now. Not sure if you'll notice this reply.
> But I don’t see a justification for fixing housing prices.
There is no justification for fixing house prices; that is an assumption made purely to consider the result of that hypothetical scenario, to examine what the consequence would be of housing prices not falling. The reason this scenario is worth modelling is simply because many Canadians do strongly believe that housing prices will not fall, so I want to examine what the world would look like with this belief being correct.
I also consider a scenario where housing prices drop by half. If rates keep going up as quickly as they are, I actually think it's plausible that housing prices drop more than this, but I have to pick a number that won't cause readers to simply tune out.
The model so far is only a partial model; housing demand is not included, but it could be in the future. Then housing prices would not need to be taken as an input, and could be projected forward. But I'm not sure it's worth the time to build that model; no matter how rigorously I derived it, I don't think it would change anybody's minds. Canadian housing prices are a charged topic and the beliefs people hold are pretty hard to change.