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What If Ukraine Wins?

10 points by memorable 4y ago

version_five 4y ago
What does the whole thing mean? Are we into some new geopolitical situation where we play chicken with Russia and hope the don't mess with something we care about (enough to do more than put a flag in our windows or social media profiles)? Or will Putin die or get overthrown and we go back to normal? Or some other thing? I think it's less a question of if Ukraine wins or loses in whatever this is, and more of how are we going to re-equilibrate? To something stable, or to some fragile ongoing steady-state? There must have been some informed thinking done on this
- Vladimof 4y ago
  > Or will Putin die or get overthrown and we go back to normal That's a big if... he might have someone lined up
  - version_five 4y ago
    Yes good point, there is also the option that his successor maintains this program and nothing change or somehow it gets more dangerous
  - quantified 4y ago
    There ought not to be "normal" like we were pretending it to be since Putin came to power. Unlikely to see another Gorbachev. Either someone he picked or someone who wants to be him are likely the next century's leaders. The West will simply not be able to trust them.
- deleted 4y ago
  [deleted]
- smt88 4y ago
  > Are we into some new geopolitical situation where we play chicken with Russia and hope the don't mess with something we care about This has been the geopolitical situation between the US and Russia since 1919. The geopolitics of the 20th century were dominated by this exact pattern.
tomohawk 4y ago
What if Ukraine doesn't win? What if Putin gets away with mass murder again, like he did in Chechnya? What if Putin is able to kill Zelensky like he assasinated so many other people in other countries? Take a look at his justification for all of this violence. There's no limiting factor to the excuses he makes for it. It could apply just as well to the Baltic states, Poland, etc.
- cjbenedikt 4y ago
  - smt88 4y ago
    None of those things shared the following qualities with the invasion of Ukraine: - sovereign, functioning democracy - recent - motivated by a desire to rebuild an empire (i.e. colonize a sovereign nation) Whatever you want to say about those situations, you can't say that it was a dictator trying to conquer a sovereign democracy.
  - Gibbon1 4y ago
    [flagged]
simonblack 4y ago
What if I win five billion dollars in the lottery? Similar likelihood of it happening. Ukraine is in deep shit. It won't be getting better any time soon.
- eveningcoffee 4y ago
  If you don't buy an appropriate ticket, your change of winning is zero. Ukraine winning the war is certainly >0.
tamaharbor 4y ago
Why did the US send $41B to Ukraine? Why is the US taking sides?
- eveningcoffee 4y ago
  First, US was a close partner to Ukraine, as were some other states. US is not taking sides, it has continuously supported Ukraine. And why shouldn't anybody support a democratic country against illegal invasion?

10 points by memorable 4y ago

What does the whole thing mean? Are we into some new geopolitical situation where we play chicken with Russia and hope the don't mess with something we care about (enough to do more than put a flag in our windows or social media profiles)? Or will Putin die or get overthrown and we go back to normal? Or some other thing? I think it's less a question of if Ukraine wins or loses in whatever this is, and more of how are we going to re-equilibrate? To something stable, or to some fragile ongoing steady-state? There must have been some informed thinking done on this

Vladimof 4y ago
> Or will Putin die or get overthrown and we go back to normal That's a big if... he might have someone lined up
- version_five 4y ago
  Yes good point, there is also the option that his successor maintains this program and nothing change or somehow it gets more dangerous
- quantified 4y ago
  There ought not to be "normal" like we were pretending it to be since Putin came to power. Unlikely to see another Gorbachev. Either someone he picked or someone who wants to be him are likely the next century's leaders. The West will simply not be able to trust them.
deleted 4y ago
[deleted]
smt88 4y ago
> Are we into some new geopolitical situation where we play chicken with Russia and hope the don't mess with something we care about This has been the geopolitical situation between the US and Russia since 1919. The geopolitics of the 20th century were dominated by this exact pattern.

tomohawk 4y ago

What if Ukraine doesn't win? What if Putin gets away with mass murder again, like he did in Chechnya? What if Putin is able to kill Zelensky like he assasinated so many other people in other countries? Take a look at his justification for all of this violence. There's no limiting factor to the excuses he makes for it. It could apply just as well to the Baltic states, Poland, etc.

cjbenedikt 4y ago
- smt88 4y ago
  None of those things shared the following qualities with the invasion of Ukraine: - sovereign, functioning democracy - recent - motivated by a desire to rebuild an empire (i.e. colonize a sovereign nation) Whatever you want to say about those situations, you can't say that it was a dictator trying to conquer a sovereign democracy.
- Gibbon1 4y ago
  [flagged]

simonblack 4y ago

What if I win five billion dollars in the lottery? Similar likelihood of it happening. Ukraine is in deep shit. It won't be getting better any time soon.

eveningcoffee 4y ago
If you don't buy an appropriate ticket, your change of winning is zero. Ukraine winning the war is certainly >0.

tamaharbor 4y ago

Why did the US send $41B to Ukraine? Why is the US taking sides?

eveningcoffee 4y ago
First, US was a close partner to Ukraine, as were some other states. US is not taking sides, it has continuously supported Ukraine. And why shouldn't anybody support a democratic country against illegal invasion?