4 ms·

China is going to do it, and you seem to believe the safety profile of nuclear energy technology has been frozen for 50 years. It's extremely strange to think s

by gfodor 4y ago

China is going to do it, and you seem to believe the safety profile of nuclear energy technology has been frozen for 50 years. It's extremely strange to think something as broad as the process of nuclear fission can be spoken about as having a universal, never changing risk-profile, regardless of technological advancement. We don't do this for any other technology. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2021-11-02/china-climate-goals-hinge-on-440-billion-nuclear-power-plan-to-rival-u-s https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2021-11-02/china-cli...

rectang 4y ago
The fundamentals of that risk profile haven't changed — you still have high concentration of radioactive materials in a single geographic location. The risk profile for nuclear is unlike that of other technologies. They told us it was safe back then. They tell us its safe today. They will always tell us it's safe. The fundamentals tell us they're wrong.
- gfodor 4y ago
  "The fundamentals" is doing a lot of work there. It's fundamentally unsafe to move at a high velocity in a meat-based body. Does this mean the risk profile of high speed transportation is invariant across technology? The "fundamentals" you speak of boil down to the first principles analysis, based on physics, of the possible states a nuclear energy production system can get into. This is not invariant with regards to technology. It seems far too reductive to claim "putting radiocative materials together in the same location" should box out all civilian use of a energy production mechanism.
  - ncmncm 4y ago
    All failures of nukes thus far have been direct consequences of inadequately competent and scrupulous administration. Administration and adherence to standards of excellence are not improving.
    - gfodor 4y ago
      Good systems engineering can tolerate massive levels of incompetent and scrupulous operators.
      - ncmncm 4y ago
        So, not good enough engineering, either, then? Bad engineering is also, almost always, management failure.
Brometheus 4y ago
China is building out mostly solar and wind.
- pfdietz 4y ago
  And very large amounts of pumped hydro too.
- kwere 4y ago
  source?
ncmncm 4y ago
The Chinese nukes will be mothballed long short of their design life, just because they will be unable to compete on cost. That will save us from an absolute rash of accidents as habitually corrupt administration fails to operate at necessary standards. With some luck, most of those planned will be cancelled before completion as their operating cost is recognized as already undercut.

by gfodor 4y ago

rectang 4y ago

The fundamentals of that risk profile haven't changed — you still have high concentration of radioactive materials in a single geographic location. The risk profile for nuclear is unlike that of other technologies. They told us it was safe back then. They tell us its safe today. They will always tell us it's safe. The fundamentals tell us they're wrong.

gfodor 4y ago
"The fundamentals" is doing a lot of work there. It's fundamentally unsafe to move at a high velocity in a meat-based body. Does this mean the risk profile of high speed transportation is invariant across technology? The "fundamentals" you speak of boil down to the first principles analysis, based on physics, of the possible states a nuclear energy production system can get into. This is not invariant with regards to technology. It seems far too reductive to claim "putting radiocative materials together in the same location" should box out all civilian use of a energy production mechanism.
- ncmncm 4y ago
  All failures of nukes thus far have been direct consequences of inadequately competent and scrupulous administration. Administration and adherence to standards of excellence are not improving.
  - gfodor 4y ago
    Good systems engineering can tolerate massive levels of incompetent and scrupulous operators.
    - ncmncm 4y ago
      So, not good enough engineering, either, then? Bad engineering is also, almost always, management failure.

Brometheus 4y ago

China is building out mostly solar and wind.

pfdietz 4y ago
And very large amounts of pumped hydro too.
kwere 4y ago
source?

ncmncm 4y ago

The Chinese nukes will be mothballed long short of their design life, just because they will be unable to compete on cost. That will save us from an absolute rash of accidents as habitually corrupt administration fails to operate at necessary standards. With some luck, most of those planned will be cancelled before completion as their operating cost is recognized as already undercut.