3 ms·
Faster reporting shouldn't affect long time averages. If the delay is x months 100*x/(n+x)% of crashes go unreported at month n with delayed reporting under si
by freemint 4y ago
Faster reporting shouldn't affect long time averages. If the delay is x months 100*x/(n+x)% of crashes go unreported at month n with delayed reporting under simplified assumptions.
- _ea1k 4y agoThe challenge is that the availability of these systems is increasing exponentially at the moment. Long term it matters less, as the long term reporting can include mileage. Short term, the lags introduce a lot of bias. I'm thinking largely of how quickly Super Cruise and Blue Cruise are expanding here. Other systems may not be expanding as quickly.
- freemint 4y agoAn exponential also gets squashed by an asymptotic. That math gets a bit more complicated (You need to evaluate an integral) but that does not categorically change the math. Also i find the notion of an exponential ramp up quiet dubious, polynomial would make more sense.
- _ea1k 4y agoThat's fair, but going back to the report I had misread it. It actually includes a lot more cars than I thought. However, it relies on reporting of accidents that is likely missing a lot of them. It is very likely that only Tesla's data is close to accurate.