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I don’t pay much attention to hardware as I used too. How is Moore’s law doing these days? Seems like Moore is still correct? Maybe with ARM & AMD? Is it doubl

I don’t pay much attention to hardware as I used too. How is Moore’s law doing these days? Seems like Moore is still correct? Maybe with ARM & AMD? Is it doubling though or is the tail end starting to dwindle?

stuu99 4y ago
dralley 4y ago
Moore's law has an economic component, i.e. "double transistors for the same price", which is falling apart faster than the density promises. New nodes are expensive and have massive fixed per-chip design costs.
- jotm 4y ago
  Which makes soldered chips in mobile devices (and NUCs/small PCs) all the more insane. But it's good for business - people will just buy a new one anyway... Hopefully socketed chips on desktops will never go away, maybe recycling/reuse businesses will become more common (manufacturers will try and stop that with some sort of locks, no doubt) or we'll see the return of sockets on laptops (I can only dream).
Symmetry 4y ago
Clock speeds stopped increasing exponentially in the mid 2000s[1]. Transistor density keeps increasing exponentially. Power per operation keeps decreasing exponentially. Marginal cost per transistor keeps decreasing exponentially. Cost to build a new fab keeps increasing exponentially. The number of leading edge fab companies might have stopped decreasing exponentially, but since we're down to 3 it's hard to tell. [1] Frequency wasn't mentioned in Moore's 1965 paper but the phrase "Moore's Law" wasn't coined until 1975 after Dennard published his results and the phrase has historically always been ambiguous as to exactly what was doubling periodically when Dennard Scaling still held.
- throwoutway 4y ago
  Best reply I’ve read in a while! Learned something new thanks
ksec 4y ago
>Seems like Moore is still correct To indirectly answer your question. There is nothing in the Semiconductor sector that measures at 2x every 24 months. Whether that is Performance, Cost or Transistor Density. And to throw another question, what exactly is Moore’s law? Because in modern day journalism and conversation, the term "Moore’s law" means transistor improvement.
- nicolaslem 4y ago
  GPU power consumption feels like it 2x every 24 months.
  - ksec 4y ago
    Seems like a tweet I just read from Jeff Atwood, Being surprised by GPU Power Draw. If that was the case we would be at 1000W+ per GPU by now.

stuu99 4y ago

dralley 4y ago

Moore's law has an economic component, i.e. "double transistors for the same price", which is falling apart faster than the density promises. New nodes are expensive and have massive fixed per-chip design costs.

jotm 4y ago
Which makes soldered chips in mobile devices (and NUCs/small PCs) all the more insane. But it's good for business - people will just buy a new one anyway... Hopefully socketed chips on desktops will never go away, maybe recycling/reuse businesses will become more common (manufacturers will try and stop that with some sort of locks, no doubt) or we'll see the return of sockets on laptops (I can only dream).

Symmetry 4y ago

Clock speeds stopped increasing exponentially in the mid 2000s[1]. Transistor density keeps increasing exponentially. Power per operation keeps decreasing exponentially. Marginal cost per transistor keeps decreasing exponentially. Cost to build a new fab keeps increasing exponentially. The number of leading edge fab companies might have stopped decreasing exponentially, but since we're down to 3 it's hard to tell. [1] Frequency wasn't mentioned in Moore's 1965 paper but the phrase "Moore's Law" wasn't coined until 1975 after Dennard published his results and the phrase has historically always been ambiguous as to exactly what was doubling periodically when Dennard Scaling still held.

throwoutway 4y ago
Best reply I’ve read in a while! Learned something new thanks

ksec 4y ago

>Seems like Moore is still correct To indirectly answer your question. There is nothing in the Semiconductor sector that measures at 2x every 24 months. Whether that is Performance, Cost or Transistor Density. And to throw another question, what exactly is Moore’s law? Because in modern day journalism and conversation, the term "Moore’s law" means transistor improvement.

nicolaslem 4y ago
GPU power consumption feels like it 2x every 24 months.
- ksec 4y ago
  Seems like a tweet I just read from Jeff Atwood, Being surprised by GPU Power Draw. If that was the case we would be at 1000W+ per GPU by now.