3 ms·

This prognosis was the final straw caused me to exit the market as it sounded like Brian wasn’t expecting a recovery in any reasonable time period. Furthermore

by azpa 4y ago

This prognosis was the final straw caused me to exit the market as it sounded like Brian wasn’t expecting a recovery in any reasonable time period. Furthermore, I felt that other asset classes were overvalued when I got into crypto and I hardly think that’s it’s currently the same. It also turned out to not be the inflation hedge I originally assumed it would be. Part of my current assertion is that cryptos value is tied to retail investors - the same who need to pull out of the market to deal with Very real expenses. Let’s also give credit where credit is due. Brian may also be using the economy as cover. Give credit where credit is due - FTX came in and ate their lunch. Hats of to them.

Zaskoda 4y ago
> It also turned out to not be the inflation hedge I originally assumed it would be. This is a common misconception. I've never understood why people have had such unrealistic expectations of Bitcoin's price performance during the initial phase of inflation. There are two types of people who buy Bitcoin: one that holds it for the long term and the other that treats it as a speculative investment, perhaps even swing trading with it. Access to cheap borrowing and a dramatic increase in the money supply has overpriced Bitcoin as speculators buy in. It has to correct. Now, as the money supply begins to shrink and access to cheap debt comes to an end, speculators are forced out of the market. They need cash to cover their debts. Thus, as all markets begin to fall, Bitcoin is going to fall with them. A lot of us have always expected this to be the case. Eventually, once the speculators are washed out, we'll hit a floor. We might be there already. We might have a way to go. But there will be a floor. The correction across all markets we've seen so far is just a market adjustment back to reality. Meanwhile, the debt bubble hasn't really started to "pop" just yet. We've seen record levels of debt lately, corporate debt in particular. Now we will begin to see over-leveraged companies begin defaulting on their debt as they head into bankruptcy. This will be the real crash. The full scope of this is unknowable. But there's reason to believe it will be historic. Meanwhile, Bitcoin has no debt. Bitcoin doesn't care. Bitcoin will just keep on being Bitcoin. At some point, people will begin to notice that Bitcoin is the only thing that's not falling anymore. This will be the moment of change.
- echelon 4y ago
  > Now we will begin to see over-leveraged companies begin defaulting on their debt as they head into bankruptcy. This will be the real crash. The full scope of this is unknowable Leverage and cash flow figures are available for all publicly traded companies. The market already knows and already has it priced in. Decreasing cash flow might pose problems. We'll have to wait and see.

by azpa 4y ago

Zaskoda 4y ago

> It also turned out to not be the inflation hedge I originally assumed it would be. This is a common misconception. I've never understood why people have had such unrealistic expectations of Bitcoin's price performance during the initial phase of inflation. There are two types of people who buy Bitcoin: one that holds it for the long term and the other that treats it as a speculative investment, perhaps even swing trading with it. Access to cheap borrowing and a dramatic increase in the money supply has overpriced Bitcoin as speculators buy in. It has to correct. Now, as the money supply begins to shrink and access to cheap debt comes to an end, speculators are forced out of the market. They need cash to cover their debts. Thus, as all markets begin to fall, Bitcoin is going to fall with them. A lot of us have always expected this to be the case. Eventually, once the speculators are washed out, we'll hit a floor. We might be there already. We might have a way to go. But there will be a floor. The correction across all markets we've seen so far is just a market adjustment back to reality. Meanwhile, the debt bubble hasn't really started to "pop" just yet. We've seen record levels of debt lately, corporate debt in particular. Now we will begin to see over-leveraged companies begin defaulting on their debt as they head into bankruptcy. This will be the real crash. The full scope of this is unknowable. But there's reason to believe it will be historic. Meanwhile, Bitcoin has no debt. Bitcoin doesn't care. Bitcoin will just keep on being Bitcoin. At some point, people will begin to notice that Bitcoin is the only thing that's not falling anymore. This will be the moment of change.

echelon 4y ago
> Now we will begin to see over-leveraged companies begin defaulting on their debt as they head into bankruptcy. This will be the real crash. The full scope of this is unknowable Leverage and cash flow figures are available for all publicly traded companies. The market already knows and already has it priced in. Decreasing cash flow might pose problems. We'll have to wait and see.