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How so? They claim each rocket (with refueling) can deliver 450T to mars. SpaceX has supported a reliable and high rate of launches, I believe higher than the

by sliken 4y ago

How so? They claim each rocket (with refueling) can deliver 450T to mars. SpaceX has supported a reliable and high rate of launches, I believe higher than their next few competitors combined. What makes them "totally inadequate"? I think many in 2010 had no idea how well SpaceX would do, how cheap the launches would be, and how many launches they would manage.

ncmncm 4y ago
You did not read Charlie's essay, did you? At 17 people per passenger trip, supported by, say, 5 cargo flights each, how many flights get you to 100M population? 1M population? I get ~60,000 passenger flights for the first 1M pop, plus 300,000 cargo flights. Each cargo or passenger flight needs what, ten fuel launches? So, about 4 million launches. At 10 launches per day (!), in twenty years, you have 73k launches, and 19k colonists delivered. Presumably after twenty years you have made some bigger rockets and added more spaceports. So, the next 20 years maybe you get another 40k colonists? 60,000 people is a very small city. You have maybe enough people to work the machines to keep people alive, but nowhere near enough to produce semiconductors, space suits, axial-flux motors, batteries, tires, diapers, dish detergent, shoes, cybertrucks, plastic sheeting for habitat expansion, solar panels, Starlink satellites, Starlink terminals, CAT6, optical fiber, superconducting tape, MRI scanners, laptops, phones, speakers, underware, pencils, paper, coffee, chairs, glass bottles, light bulbs, transformers, Romex, wall sockets, ductwork, duct tape, fans, compressors, vacuum pumps, pots, kettles, microwave ovens, refrigerators, dishwashers, laundry machines, CNCs, m3 screws, nuts, and washers, bulldozers, excavators, forklifts, plexiglas, mirrors, tupperware, eyeglass frames, pressure hose, hose clamps, hydraulic cylinders, zip ties, label-printer tape, activated carbon filter sheets. Antidepressants, anxiolytics. I might have missed something; they better not! Fortunately, scrap stainless steel sheet, pallets, and rocket engines will pile up fast. Where do you get 450t per SS to Mars? https://caseyhandmer.wordpress.com/2021/04/09/the-martian-starship/ https://caseyhandmer.wordpress.com/2021/04/09/the-martian-st... says 100t.

by sliken 4y ago

ncmncm 4y ago

You did not read Charlie's essay, did you? At 17 people per passenger trip, supported by, say, 5 cargo flights each, how many flights get you to 100M population? 1M population? I get ~60,000 passenger flights for the first 1M pop, plus 300,000 cargo flights. Each cargo or passenger flight needs what, ten fuel launches? So, about 4 million launches. At 10 launches per day (!), in twenty years, you have 73k launches, and 19k colonists delivered. Presumably after twenty years you have made some bigger rockets and added more spaceports. So, the next 20 years maybe you get another 40k colonists? 60,000 people is a very small city. You have maybe enough people to work the machines to keep people alive, but nowhere near enough to produce semiconductors, space suits, axial-flux motors, batteries, tires, diapers, dish detergent, shoes, cybertrucks, plastic sheeting for habitat expansion, solar panels, Starlink satellites, Starlink terminals, CAT6, optical fiber, superconducting tape, MRI scanners, laptops, phones, speakers, underware, pencils, paper, coffee, chairs, glass bottles, light bulbs, transformers, Romex, wall sockets, ductwork, duct tape, fans, compressors, vacuum pumps, pots, kettles, microwave ovens, refrigerators, dishwashers, laundry machines, CNCs, m3 screws, nuts, and washers, bulldozers, excavators, forklifts, plexiglas, mirrors, tupperware, eyeglass frames, pressure hose, hose clamps, hydraulic cylinders, zip ties, label-printer tape, activated carbon filter sheets. Antidepressants, anxiolytics. I might have missed something; they better not! Fortunately, scrap stainless steel sheet, pallets, and rocket engines will pile up fast. Where do you get 450t per SS to Mars? https://caseyhandmer.wordpress.com/2021/04/09/the-martian-starship/ https://caseyhandmer.wordpress.com/2021/04/09/the-martian-st... says 100t.