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Ukraine is currently getting hammered by Russian artillery in Donbas, and suffering 100+ dead soldiers per day (as reportedly is Russia). They will only win wit

Ukraine is currently getting hammered by Russian artillery in Donbas, and suffering 100+ dead soldiers per day (as reportedly is Russia). They will only win with large amounts of ongoing foreign military and economic aid from committed partners. Why would they try to go to Moscow? They don’t have the logistical capacity to pull it off and it would be in nobody’s interest. Unlike Russia they don’t seem to be ruled by crazy people. More realistically Ukraine will lose a bit more ground and a few more towns in Donbas before the Russian offensive culminates, and then as more supplies come in they will eventually counter-attack when they get a chance. The Russian military will run out of soldiers and equipment while the Russian economy sputters, and will be slowly pushed out of Ukrainian territory. What happens as a result to domestic policy in Russia will be highly volatile and is hard to predict.

cpursley 4y ago
> They will only win with large amounts of foreign military and economic aid Which systems exactly (models, etc)? And who exactly will field them? > Ukraine will lose a bit more ground in Donbas before the Russian offensive culminates Correct, that's one of their stated objectives > The Russian military will run out of soldiers and equipment They ran out of both two months ago, didn't you hear? > Russian economy sputters Any evidence that this is happening or will happen?
- jacobolus 4y ago
  > They ran out of both two months ago, didn't you hear? Russia has lost on order 20k dead soldiers and some multiple of that wounded, thousands of lost pieces of equipment, etc. But that is still less than half of the resources they committed in Ukraine. Despite steep losses, attrition hasn’t yet completely obliterated the Russian armed forces. But since they have done no general mobilization in Russia, those lost troops are not being replaced, and more and more units are losing combat effectiveness with each passing month. They are also running out of untrained separatist cannon fodder from Donbas. Ukraine has also suffered tens of thousands of casualties and lost a great deal of equipment. But since Ukraine is fighting for survival, it has much more available manpower, and its soldiers have better morale and motivation. The bottleneck for Ukraine is training and advanced weapons like artillery, rockets, missiles, and fighter jets. > Any evidence [Russian economic trouble] is happening or will happen? Lots of Russian industry has already shut down, and GDP is expected to contract 15% this year and an additional several percent the year after (for reference, US GDP contracted by 4.3% in the great recession, and by about 30% during 1929–1933). Europe is transitioning to other energy sources as fast as possible. In the medium term Russia is not capable of continuing much of its domestic oil production without foreign equipment and expertise. Few foreign investors are going to feel any confidence to invest in Russia, for years.

cpursley 4y ago

> They will only win with large amounts of foreign military and economic aid Which systems exactly (models, etc)? And who exactly will field them? > Ukraine will lose a bit more ground in Donbas before the Russian offensive culminates Correct, that's one of their stated objectives > The Russian military will run out of soldiers and equipment They ran out of both two months ago, didn't you hear? > Russian economy sputters Any evidence that this is happening or will happen?

jacobolus 4y ago
> They ran out of both two months ago, didn't you hear? Russia has lost on order 20k dead soldiers and some multiple of that wounded, thousands of lost pieces of equipment, etc. But that is still less than half of the resources they committed in Ukraine. Despite steep losses, attrition hasn’t yet completely obliterated the Russian armed forces. But since they have done no general mobilization in Russia, those lost troops are not being replaced, and more and more units are losing combat effectiveness with each passing month. They are also running out of untrained separatist cannon fodder from Donbas. Ukraine has also suffered tens of thousands of casualties and lost a great deal of equipment. But since Ukraine is fighting for survival, it has much more available manpower, and its soldiers have better morale and motivation. The bottleneck for Ukraine is training and advanced weapons like artillery, rockets, missiles, and fighter jets. > Any evidence [Russian economic trouble] is happening or will happen? Lots of Russian industry has already shut down, and GDP is expected to contract 15% this year and an additional several percent the year after (for reference, US GDP contracted by 4.3% in the great recession, and by about 30% during 1929–1933). Europe is transitioning to other energy sources as fast as possible. In the medium term Russia is not capable of continuing much of its domestic oil production without foreign equipment and expertise. Few foreign investors are going to feel any confidence to invest in Russia, for years.