7 ms·

* Those who left have already returned, my coworkers never left, nor will I in near future. * Electronics can be imported via China and Kazakhstan. Thousands o

• jacobolus 4y ago
  > It is not as if Ukraine has anything better to offer. They have 260+ captured Russian tanks, for one thing. Ukraine has asked supporting countries to instead send howitzers, anti-air guns/missiles, and multiple-launch rockets. By the end of this war Ukraine might end up with the largest tank army in Europe. https://oryxspioenkop.com/2022/02/attack-on-europe-documenting-equipment.html https://oryxspioenkop.com/2022/02/attack-on-europe-documenti... By most reports Ukraine (and Russia for that matter) are both much more limited by supply of trained tank crew than lack of physical tanks. Hundreds of Russian tanks requiring 3 crew members were already being driven by crews of 2 (in some cases untrained), and therefore combat ineffective right from the start. Russia has lost an estimated 1000+ tanks in 3 months of war, and now has all but stopped doing maneuver operations, whether because they are scared to lose more or have run out of supply. From what I understand Russia’s tank production has entirely stopped for lack of microchips and other components. > Cruise, ballistic missiles on the conveyor and in the air. Every day and night. The rate of Russian use of long-distance missiles dropped off dramatically after the first couple months of the war. They wasted their missiles blowing up hundreds or thousands of militarily irrelevant civilian targets (apartment buildings, hospitals, schools, etc.). External experts don’t have perfect knowledge of Russian supplies, but the most plausible inference is that the Russian military is running out of whatever stores they were willing to use here. (Presumably there is still some reserve, but missiles getting used are not being obviously replaced.) What the Russian military does have a lot of compared to Ukraine is artillery and artillery ammo, and unguided rocket launchers. Pretty much all of the stockpiled 152 mm (Soviet caliber) artillery ammo in Europe was already sent to Ukraine and Ukraine has almost run through it all, but Ukraine doesn’t yet have enough 155 mm (NATO caliber) howitzers to replace the 152 mm artillery that is out of ammo. Hopefully they will get hundreds more NATO howitzers in the coming weeks and months.
  • cpursley 4y ago
    Oh really? Sounds like they're already on the outskirts of Moscow and don't actually need the $40 billion. Maybe we can get some of that back?
    • jacobolus 4y ago
      Ukraine is currently getting hammered by Russian artillery in Donbas, and suffering 100+ dead soldiers per day (as reportedly is Russia). They will only win with large amounts of ongoing foreign military and economic aid from committed partners. Why would they try to go to Moscow? They don’t have the logistical capacity to pull it off and it would be in nobody’s interest. Unlike Russia they don’t seem to be ruled by crazy people. More realistically Ukraine will lose a bit more ground and a few more towns in Donbas before the Russian offensive culminates, and then as more supplies come in they will eventually counter-attack when they get a chance. The Russian military will run out of soldiers and equipment while the Russian economy sputters, and will be slowly pushed out of Ukrainian territory. What happens as a result to domestic policy in Russia will be highly volatile and is hard to predict.
      • cpursley 4y ago
        > They will only win with large amounts of foreign military and economic aid Which systems exactly (models, etc)? And who exactly will field them? > Ukraine will lose a bit more ground in Donbas before the Russian offensive culminates Correct, that's one of their stated objectives > The Russian military will run out of soldiers and equipment They ran out of both two months ago, didn't you hear? > Russian economy sputters Any evidence that this is happening or will happen?
        • jacobolus 4y ago
          > They ran out of both two months ago, didn't you hear? Russia has lost on order 20k dead soldiers and some multiple of that wounded, thousands of lost pieces of equipment, etc. But that is still less than half of the resources they committed in Ukraine. Despite steep losses, attrition hasn’t yet completely obliterated the Russian armed forces. But since they have done no general mobilization in Russia, those lost troops are not being replaced, and more and more units are losing combat effectiveness with each passing month. They are also running out of untrained separatist cannon fodder from Donbas. Ukraine has also suffered tens of thousands of casualties and lost a great deal of equipment. But since Ukraine is fighting for survival, it has much more available manpower, and its soldiers have better morale and motivation. The bottleneck for Ukraine is training and advanced weapons like artillery, rockets, missiles, and fighter jets. > Any evidence [Russian economic trouble] is happening or will happen? Lots of Russian industry has already shut down, and GDP is expected to contract 15% this year and an additional several percent the year after (for reference, US GDP contracted by 4.3% in the great recession, and by about 30% during 1929–1933). Europe is transitioning to other energy sources as fast as possible. In the medium term Russia is not capable of continuing much of its domestic oil production without foreign equipment and expertise. Few foreign investors are going to feel any confidence to invest in Russia, for years.