3 ms·

Russia will not come out of this any better. China and India are gleefully picking the bones, and it's hard to blame them. The fudged numbers of the Ruble are i

by juve1996 4y ago

Russia will not come out of this any better. China and India are gleefully picking the bones, and it's hard to blame them. The fudged numbers of the Ruble are irrelevant.

cpursley 4y ago
The EU and other buyers of Russian commodities seem to be paying those fudged numbers as we speak.
- juve1996 4y ago
  Of course - through necessity. But this will force them to move away and look for other options. You can go ahead and congratulate them on their short term "victories", but long term, I don't see how this benefits them.
  - cpursley 4y ago
    Russia can find new customers before EU can find new suppliers (at least regarding natural gas), which is precisely why we're seeing increases in energy costs.
    - juve1996 4y ago
      It takes infrastructure to move natural gas. They can find customers - but can they get that NG there? Not right now they can't. And there are material shortages everywhere - it will take a long time and it will be more costly in the long run than their European markets. Tensions are already rising between the Saudi's and Russians, who are frustrated with Russia's drop in output since the war started. This will only exacerbate the west moving away from fossil fuels - essentially weakening oil power world wide. On top of that, all the money they're making from oil has been pretty much paying off accumulated foreign debts. People are concerned about the export - but it doesn't matter if you export a lot if you can't import what you need for an extended war effort or for your citizens. I think Russia has already lost this war from a geopolitical perspective. Even if they take the Ukraine, their position is worse than it was from before.
      - cpursley 4y ago
        You made my point for me regarding moving natural gas. EU is 5+ years from a Russian gas replacement (oil/gasoline, sooner). Regarding debts, the Russian federal debt is one of the lowest in the world. Google/Yandex it. And as for the citizens, yeah - no more BMWs or iPhones (just kidding, those will come from Kazakhstan and Armenia at a markup)...
        deleted 4y ago
        [deleted]

Russia will not come out of this any better. China and India are gleefully picking the bones, and it's hard to blame them. The fudged numbers of the Ruble are irrelevant.

cpursley 4y ago

The EU and other buyers of Russian commodities seem to be paying those fudged numbers as we speak.

juve1996 4y ago
Of course - through necessity. But this will force them to move away and look for other options. You can go ahead and congratulate them on their short term "victories", but long term, I don't see how this benefits them.
- cpursley 4y ago
  Russia can find new customers before EU can find new suppliers (at least regarding natural gas), which is precisely why we're seeing increases in energy costs.
  - juve1996 4y ago
    It takes infrastructure to move natural gas. They can find customers - but can they get that NG there? Not right now they can't. And there are material shortages everywhere - it will take a long time and it will be more costly in the long run than their European markets. Tensions are already rising between the Saudi's and Russians, who are frustrated with Russia's drop in output since the war started. This will only exacerbate the west moving away from fossil fuels - essentially weakening oil power world wide. On top of that, all the money they're making from oil has been pretty much paying off accumulated foreign debts. People are concerned about the export - but it doesn't matter if you export a lot if you can't import what you need for an extended war effort or for your citizens. I think Russia has already lost this war from a geopolitical perspective. Even if they take the Ukraine, their position is worse than it was from before.
    - cpursley 4y ago
      You made my point for me regarding moving natural gas. EU is 5+ years from a Russian gas replacement (oil/gasoline, sooner). Regarding debts, the Russian federal debt is one of the lowest in the world. Google/Yandex it. And as for the citizens, yeah - no more BMWs or iPhones (just kidding, those will come from Kazakhstan and Armenia at a markup)...
      - deleted 4y ago
        [deleted]