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> Meanwhile RUB to USD is at its highest in nearly 5 years Is that meant to demonstrate economic strength? * Russians have massive amount of brain drain. Most

> Meanwhile RUB to USD is at its highest in nearly 5 years Is that meant to demonstrate economic strength? * Russians have massive amount of brain drain. Most of tech employees have left, leaving only people extracting oil, people who turn it into fertilizer and gasoline and supporting roles. * They can't build military tech because of sanctions. Starting to use 1950s and 1960s tanks. * They've privatized and violated tons of foreign companies (for example Renault gave away 68% of car manufacturer Avtovaz to the state). Nobody in their right mind will bring money there in the future. * They can't import smartphones, tech or luxury cars (things that keep russian upper middle class happy). > Cutting Russia off from SWIFT has only strengthened their ties to India and China There has been both strengthening and weakening. Russia depends on China, not the other way around. > and now we're dealing with soaring food and energy prices at home It hurts both ways. This is normal. Appeasement would be a better choice?

kgeist 4y ago
>Most of tech employees have left That's not quite true, as an engineer in Russia, I'm not witnessing massive exodus (yet?)
- cpursley 4y ago
  Anecdotal, but I know several Russian programmers who've taken jobs in Russia (formally working for western companies) because now with the RUB so strong, they actually make more money working for local companies.
88840-8855 4y ago
It hurts the Russian, but the Russian lived in the Soviet Union and survived the Crazy 90s. They can suffer way more than Westerns spoiled by prosperity. And the best thing - rich Russian escaping Russia end up being sanctioned, hence, many stay. Let's see who can suffer more: Westerns + accepting a global food crisis with millions of dead people in the Third world (thanks to the sanctions, NOT the war per se) or the Russians who lived like shit before and know that this is yet another round of sufferings.
- RcouF1uZ4gsC 4y ago
  > It hurts the Russian, but the Russian lived in the Soviet Union and survived the Crazy 90s. They can suffer way more than Westerns spoiled by prosperity. From the Mongol invasions to WWII to the Soviet Union, Russians have a lot of experience with collective suffering and deprivation.
  - hdjjhhvvhga 4y ago
    Yes, but why? Why do these people have to suffer all the time? One reason I heard my Russian friends repeating is that "it's a bit country so we need a strong ruler to keep it together". But history shows this is not true. Also a federation of states like the USA would probably work better than the current setup where a short guy from Moscow is sending Buryat boys to die in a country they haven't seen before.
    - 5e92cb50239222b 4y ago
      > a federation of states like the USA would probably work better than the current setup where a short guy from Moscow is sending Buryat boys to die in a country they haven't seen before Excuse my ignorance… but how is it different from a tall guy from Connecticut sending, I dunno, Montana boys to die in a country they haven't even heard of? I'm just trying to understand the difference.
      - butterfly771 4y ago
    - RcouF1uZ4gsC 4y ago
      History does not show this is true. Russia has historically been invaded by such people as Genghis Khan(actually his grandson, Tamerlane, Napoleon, Charles )I forget which one) of Sweden, and Hitler. The USA on the other hand is protected by two oceans and has not had a foreign army on the continent since 1815.
at-fates-hands 4y ago
Serious question then. . . How long before their economy collapses? Of course with the idea that everything you're saying is true. Which at this point, I have no basis to disagree with you. I'm just wondering how long you think it will take for all of this finally come to a head.
- cpursley 4y ago
  Considering that commodities matter and Russia has them in spades, is run by (mostly) competent people (notice I didn't say moral or ethical) and has many friends outside the west, including the most populous countries, their economy is not collapsing any time soon.
  - archagon 4y ago
    As someone who was born in the Soviet Union, has Russian friends and family, and has been observing Russia for decades... > is run by (mostly) competent people Citation needed.
    - somenameforme 4y ago
      What would you say of Russia's overall trajectory from the late 1990s to present times by most any quantifiable value: economy, security (as in personal safety), opportunity, and so on? I'm not trying to be snarky or rhetorical, and am asking out of genuine curiosity. I'm sure you know what I'm referencing and this tends to give me a quite positive view of the competence of Russian leadership, but I'm also an outsider and am certain there are things I'm missing or not considering.
- snemvalts 4y ago
  Once they run out of military hardware probably. Russian military doctrine has throughout ages been to throw massive amounts of human lives at the enemy, same is true for today. At some point however, without military hardware it will become absurd even for them. Russians themselves have gotten used to consumer goods etc from the west, but they are mostly too afraid to rise up against or fight for Putin, who has most of modern russian state built around himself. So, no uprising from within probably. Altogether if not the end of summer, then it's into very scary territory. Famine + energy prices - while Russia being unable to advance in Ukraine because of seasonal changes.
logifail 4y ago
> Appeasement would be a better choice? Pope Francis says Ukraine war was ‘perhaps somehow provoked’ https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/jun/14/pope-francis-ukraine-war-provoked-russian-troops https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/jun/14/pope-francis-u... "The pontiff warned [..] against what he said was a fairytale perception of the conflict as good versus evil" "We need to move away from the usual Little Red Riding Hood pattern, in that Little Red Riding Hood was good and the wolf was the bad one [..] something global is emerging and the elements are very much entwined."
- rajup 4y ago
  Well that’s a new one, is there an interpretation of red riding hood where the wolf is good?
  - vladstudio 4y ago
    if there is none, it is definitely worth writing.
  - slim 4y ago
  - pydry 4y ago
    This isnt little red riding hood. It's a crips (US/NATO) vs. bloods (Russia) turf war with Ukraine trying to join the crips for protection and beat off the bloods using nazi paramilitaries. Geopolitics aint no fairy tale. It's gang warfare writ large.
  - rapjr9 4y ago
    Tanith Lee, "Wolfland" - "Little Red Riding Hood gets turned on its head. The wolf is frightening, but it's not the villian in this tale." https://www.amazon.com/Red-Blood-Tales-Sisters-Grimmer/dp/0879977906 https://www.amazon.com/Red-Blood-Tales-Sisters-Grimmer/dp/08...
- themitigating 4y ago
  What makes the pope, a man who has dedicated his life to the study of religion and God an expert in global politics, that a quote from him has more value than a comment from anyone here. He mentions in the article that an unnamed world leader told him Russia would get upset at NATO being so close to their border. Putin has publicly mentioned this multiple times before the war with Ukraine. Finally, Ukraine has the right to join any alliance it wants and for Russia to invade over that is bullshit. If you want to bring up promises about not joining NATO then we must talk about promises not to invade. Russia has already done this before in 2014
5e92cb50239222b 4y ago
> Most of tech employees have left Yeah, you just keep believing that. Western media was happy to report the mass exodus at the beginning of the war, but for some reason didn't notice that the vast majority of them have returned by now. Undoubtedly, some will be better prepared next time and will leave for good, but that definitely won't be 'most of tech employees' because there's nowhere for them to go. It's really hard to emigrate to the West (you have no idea how difficult it is even for those working in IT), and neighboring countries can't soak up that many (I'm from one of them).
lawxls 4y ago
* Those who left have already returned, my coworkers never left, nor will I in near future. * Electronics can be imported via China and Kazakhstan. Thousands of kilometers of line of contact, plenty of T62's in good condition, why not give them to separatists? It is not as if Ukraine has anything better to offer. Cruise, ballistic missiles on the conveyor and in the air. Every day and night. * So? You are not planning to restart the business in the near future as a result of your position? Bye. Toyota, Honda, and Nissan have all already announced their return. Asian cars it is. Although, cars are still very expensive. * Lol. Again, China and Kazakhstan. It's been cheaper to order from China than ever before (or since 2016 as I remember). Aside from that, phones and other electronics are available in store at prices even lower than before due to market rate prices. GPU's are literally more accessible than three months ago. What hurts is inflation, but it's everywhere. Also, it's kinda annoying not to be able to pay for some services that I usually use through russian bank's credit card. I guess I'll need to travel to another country in order to get a regular card, many russians did that already.
- jacobolus 4y ago
  > It is not as if Ukraine has anything better to offer. They have 260+ captured Russian tanks, for one thing. Ukraine has asked supporting countries to instead send howitzers, anti-air guns/missiles, and multiple-launch rockets. By the end of this war Ukraine might end up with the largest tank army in Europe. https://oryxspioenkop.com/2022/02/attack-on-europe-documenting-equipment.html https://oryxspioenkop.com/2022/02/attack-on-europe-documenti... By most reports Ukraine (and Russia for that matter) are both much more limited by supply of trained tank crew than lack of physical tanks. Hundreds of Russian tanks requiring 3 crew members were already being driven by crews of 2 (in some cases untrained), and therefore combat ineffective right from the start. Russia has lost an estimated 1000+ tanks in 3 months of war, and now has all but stopped doing maneuver operations, whether because they are scared to lose more or have run out of supply. From what I understand Russia’s tank production has entirely stopped for lack of microchips and other components. > Cruise, ballistic missiles on the conveyor and in the air. Every day and night. The rate of Russian use of long-distance missiles dropped off dramatically after the first couple months of the war. They wasted their missiles blowing up hundreds or thousands of militarily irrelevant civilian targets (apartment buildings, hospitals, schools, etc.). External experts don’t have perfect knowledge of Russian supplies, but the most plausible inference is that the Russian military is running out of whatever stores they were willing to use here. (Presumably there is still some reserve, but missiles getting used are not being obviously replaced.) What the Russian military does have a lot of compared to Ukraine is artillery and artillery ammo, and unguided rocket launchers. Pretty much all of the stockpiled 152 mm (Soviet caliber) artillery ammo in Europe was already sent to Ukraine and Ukraine has almost run through it all, but Ukraine doesn’t yet have enough 155 mm (NATO caliber) howitzers to replace the 152 mm artillery that is out of ammo. Hopefully they will get hundreds more NATO howitzers in the coming weeks and months.
tomp 4y ago
> Russians have massive amount of brain drain. Most of tech employees have left I doubt this will continue. The West has clearly demonstrated that their sanction and Russo-phobia will target not just politicians and oligarch, but normal people as well. Students being expelled, employees and artists fired, hospitals not treating them, etc. Ordinary Russians aren't safe/welcome in the West, and they know it. Going home is their only choice (or praying that Russia collapses soon and Russo-phobia ends... sounds like a gamble).
- hdjjhhvvhga 4y ago
  This is an active topic in the Russian community: which countries are the most Russia-friendly. In general, the countries the closest to Russia and most likely to be invaded next are the most hostile (Baltics, Romania etc.). However, the countries further away care less, and in non-Western countries practically nobody cares. You will be just labeled "white" an that's all.
cpursley 4y ago
> They can't build military tech because of sanctions. Russia is ahead of the west both in ballistics & air defense using mostly off the shelf consumer chips that are very easy to smuggle in via 3rd parties. > Starting to use 1950s and 1960s tanks. Retrofitted tanks that get the job done. These are being sent to the rear for policing (occupying) operations as well as given to the Donbas separatists. > Renault gave away 68% of car manufacturer Avtovaz to the state Pretty sure that was on Renaults own volition. The Chinese are more than glad to take up the slack.
- VWWHFSfQ 4y ago
  > Russia is ahead of the west both in ballistics & air defense This is an absolutely absurd claim. I will say that it is flat-out FALSE.
  - cpursley 4y ago
    Well, the US President and Pentagon disagree with you. As do the receiving ends of those weopons systems.
    - VWWHFSfQ 4y ago
      Citations please!
      - cpursley 4y ago
        Google it. Russians might be Orcs, but they can math.
        VWWHFSfQ 4y ago
        So this is a troll account. Got it.
        archagon 4y ago
        His recent posts are all in war threads pumping up Russia while smugly mocking Westerners and the US/EU. Probably not a troll, but a true believer. As a Russian/American following this sick war with abject horror, it really depresses me...

kgeist 4y ago

>Most of tech employees have left That's not quite true, as an engineer in Russia, I'm not witnessing massive exodus (yet?)

cpursley 4y ago
Anecdotal, but I know several Russian programmers who've taken jobs in Russia (formally working for western companies) because now with the RUB so strong, they actually make more money working for local companies.

88840-8855 4y ago

It hurts the Russian, but the Russian lived in the Soviet Union and survived the Crazy 90s. They can suffer way more than Westerns spoiled by prosperity. And the best thing - rich Russian escaping Russia end up being sanctioned, hence, many stay. Let's see who can suffer more: Westerns + accepting a global food crisis with millions of dead people in the Third world (thanks to the sanctions, NOT the war per se) or the Russians who lived like shit before and know that this is yet another round of sufferings.

RcouF1uZ4gsC 4y ago
> It hurts the Russian, but the Russian lived in the Soviet Union and survived the Crazy 90s. They can suffer way more than Westerns spoiled by prosperity. From the Mongol invasions to WWII to the Soviet Union, Russians have a lot of experience with collective suffering and deprivation.
- hdjjhhvvhga 4y ago
  Yes, but why? Why do these people have to suffer all the time? One reason I heard my Russian friends repeating is that "it's a bit country so we need a strong ruler to keep it together". But history shows this is not true. Also a federation of states like the USA would probably work better than the current setup where a short guy from Moscow is sending Buryat boys to die in a country they haven't seen before.
  - 5e92cb50239222b 4y ago
    > a federation of states like the USA would probably work better than the current setup where a short guy from Moscow is sending Buryat boys to die in a country they haven't seen before Excuse my ignorance… but how is it different from a tall guy from Connecticut sending, I dunno, Montana boys to die in a country they haven't even heard of? I'm just trying to understand the difference.
    - butterfly771 4y ago
  - RcouF1uZ4gsC 4y ago
    History does not show this is true. Russia has historically been invaded by such people as Genghis Khan(actually his grandson, Tamerlane, Napoleon, Charles )I forget which one) of Sweden, and Hitler. The USA on the other hand is protected by two oceans and has not had a foreign army on the continent since 1815.

at-fates-hands 4y ago

Serious question then. . . How long before their economy collapses? Of course with the idea that everything you're saying is true. Which at this point, I have no basis to disagree with you. I'm just wondering how long you think it will take for all of this finally come to a head.

cpursley 4y ago
Considering that commodities matter and Russia has them in spades, is run by (mostly) competent people (notice I didn't say moral or ethical) and has many friends outside the west, including the most populous countries, their economy is not collapsing any time soon.
- archagon 4y ago
  As someone who was born in the Soviet Union, has Russian friends and family, and has been observing Russia for decades... > is run by (mostly) competent people Citation needed.
  - somenameforme 4y ago
    What would you say of Russia's overall trajectory from the late 1990s to present times by most any quantifiable value: economy, security (as in personal safety), opportunity, and so on? I'm not trying to be snarky or rhetorical, and am asking out of genuine curiosity. I'm sure you know what I'm referencing and this tends to give me a quite positive view of the competence of Russian leadership, but I'm also an outsider and am certain there are things I'm missing or not considering.
snemvalts 4y ago
Once they run out of military hardware probably. Russian military doctrine has throughout ages been to throw massive amounts of human lives at the enemy, same is true for today. At some point however, without military hardware it will become absurd even for them. Russians themselves have gotten used to consumer goods etc from the west, but they are mostly too afraid to rise up against or fight for Putin, who has most of modern russian state built around himself. So, no uprising from within probably. Altogether if not the end of summer, then it's into very scary territory. Famine + energy prices - while Russia being unable to advance in Ukraine because of seasonal changes.

logifail 4y ago

> Appeasement would be a better choice? Pope Francis says Ukraine war was ‘perhaps somehow provoked’ https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/jun/14/pope-francis-ukraine-war-provoked-russian-troops https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/jun/14/pope-francis-u... "The pontiff warned [..] against what he said was a fairytale perception of the conflict as good versus evil" "We need to move away from the usual Little Red Riding Hood pattern, in that Little Red Riding Hood was good and the wolf was the bad one [..] something global is emerging and the elements are very much entwined."

rajup 4y ago
Well that’s a new one, is there an interpretation of red riding hood where the wolf is good?
- vladstudio 4y ago
  if there is none, it is definitely worth writing.
- slim 4y ago
- pydry 4y ago
  This isnt little red riding hood. It's a crips (US/NATO) vs. bloods (Russia) turf war with Ukraine trying to join the crips for protection and beat off the bloods using nazi paramilitaries. Geopolitics aint no fairy tale. It's gang warfare writ large.
- rapjr9 4y ago
  Tanith Lee, "Wolfland" - "Little Red Riding Hood gets turned on its head. The wolf is frightening, but it's not the villian in this tale." https://www.amazon.com/Red-Blood-Tales-Sisters-Grimmer/dp/0879977906 https://www.amazon.com/Red-Blood-Tales-Sisters-Grimmer/dp/08...
themitigating 4y ago
What makes the pope, a man who has dedicated his life to the study of religion and God an expert in global politics, that a quote from him has more value than a comment from anyone here. He mentions in the article that an unnamed world leader told him Russia would get upset at NATO being so close to their border. Putin has publicly mentioned this multiple times before the war with Ukraine. Finally, Ukraine has the right to join any alliance it wants and for Russia to invade over that is bullshit. If you want to bring up promises about not joining NATO then we must talk about promises not to invade. Russia has already done this before in 2014

5e92cb50239222b 4y ago

> Most of tech employees have left Yeah, you just keep believing that. Western media was happy to report the mass exodus at the beginning of the war, but for some reason didn't notice that the vast majority of them have returned by now. Undoubtedly, some will be better prepared next time and will leave for good, but that definitely won't be 'most of tech employees' because there's nowhere for them to go. It's really hard to emigrate to the West (you have no idea how difficult it is even for those working in IT), and neighboring countries can't soak up that many (I'm from one of them).

lawxls 4y ago

* Those who left have already returned, my coworkers never left, nor will I in near future. * Electronics can be imported via China and Kazakhstan. Thousands of kilometers of line of contact, plenty of T62's in good condition, why not give them to separatists? It is not as if Ukraine has anything better to offer. Cruise, ballistic missiles on the conveyor and in the air. Every day and night. * So? You are not planning to restart the business in the near future as a result of your position? Bye. Toyota, Honda, and Nissan have all already announced their return. Asian cars it is. Although, cars are still very expensive. * Lol. Again, China and Kazakhstan. It's been cheaper to order from China than ever before (or since 2016 as I remember). Aside from that, phones and other electronics are available in store at prices even lower than before due to market rate prices. GPU's are literally more accessible than three months ago. What hurts is inflation, but it's everywhere. Also, it's kinda annoying not to be able to pay for some services that I usually use through russian bank's credit card. I guess I'll need to travel to another country in order to get a regular card, many russians did that already.

jacobolus 4y ago
> It is not as if Ukraine has anything better to offer. They have 260+ captured Russian tanks, for one thing. Ukraine has asked supporting countries to instead send howitzers, anti-air guns/missiles, and multiple-launch rockets. By the end of this war Ukraine might end up with the largest tank army in Europe. https://oryxspioenkop.com/2022/02/attack-on-europe-documenting-equipment.html https://oryxspioenkop.com/2022/02/attack-on-europe-documenti... By most reports Ukraine (and Russia for that matter) are both much more limited by supply of trained tank crew than lack of physical tanks. Hundreds of Russian tanks requiring 3 crew members were already being driven by crews of 2 (in some cases untrained), and therefore combat ineffective right from the start. Russia has lost an estimated 1000+ tanks in 3 months of war, and now has all but stopped doing maneuver operations, whether because they are scared to lose more or have run out of supply. From what I understand Russia’s tank production has entirely stopped for lack of microchips and other components. > Cruise, ballistic missiles on the conveyor and in the air. Every day and night. The rate of Russian use of long-distance missiles dropped off dramatically after the first couple months of the war. They wasted their missiles blowing up hundreds or thousands of militarily irrelevant civilian targets (apartment buildings, hospitals, schools, etc.). External experts don’t have perfect knowledge of Russian supplies, but the most plausible inference is that the Russian military is running out of whatever stores they were willing to use here. (Presumably there is still some reserve, but missiles getting used are not being obviously replaced.) What the Russian military does have a lot of compared to Ukraine is artillery and artillery ammo, and unguided rocket launchers. Pretty much all of the stockpiled 152 mm (Soviet caliber) artillery ammo in Europe was already sent to Ukraine and Ukraine has almost run through it all, but Ukraine doesn’t yet have enough 155 mm (NATO caliber) howitzers to replace the 152 mm artillery that is out of ammo. Hopefully they will get hundreds more NATO howitzers in the coming weeks and months.

tomp 4y ago

> Russians have massive amount of brain drain. Most of tech employees have left I doubt this will continue. The West has clearly demonstrated that their sanction and Russo-phobia will target not just politicians and oligarch, but normal people as well. Students being expelled, employees and artists fired, hospitals not treating them, etc. Ordinary Russians aren't safe/welcome in the West, and they know it. Going home is their only choice (or praying that Russia collapses soon and Russo-phobia ends... sounds like a gamble).

hdjjhhvvhga 4y ago
This is an active topic in the Russian community: which countries are the most Russia-friendly. In general, the countries the closest to Russia and most likely to be invaded next are the most hostile (Baltics, Romania etc.). However, the countries further away care less, and in non-Western countries practically nobody cares. You will be just labeled "white" an that's all.

cpursley 4y ago

> They can't build military tech because of sanctions. Russia is ahead of the west both in ballistics & air defense using mostly off the shelf consumer chips that are very easy to smuggle in via 3rd parties. > Starting to use 1950s and 1960s tanks. Retrofitted tanks that get the job done. These are being sent to the rear for policing (occupying) operations as well as given to the Donbas separatists. > Renault gave away 68% of car manufacturer Avtovaz to the state Pretty sure that was on Renaults own volition. The Chinese are more than glad to take up the slack.

VWWHFSfQ 4y ago
> Russia is ahead of the west both in ballistics & air defense This is an absolutely absurd claim. I will say that it is flat-out FALSE.
- cpursley 4y ago
  Well, the US President and Pentagon disagree with you. As do the receiving ends of those weopons systems.
  - VWWHFSfQ 4y ago
    Citations please!
    - cpursley 4y ago
      Google it. Russians might be Orcs, but they can math.
      - VWWHFSfQ 4y ago
        So this is a troll account. Got it.
        archagon 4y ago
        His recent posts are all in war threads pumping up Russia while smugly mocking Westerners and the US/EU. Probably not a troll, but a true believer. As a Russian/American following this sick war with abject horror, it really depresses me...