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I’m concerned the following might play out: -Russia wins in Ukraine -The sanctions were ultimately ineffective, for the reasons you explain above -China take

by zionic 4y ago

I’m concerned the following might play out: -Russia wins in Ukraine -The sanctions were ultimately ineffective, for the reasons you explain above -China takes Taiwan during major US political unrest, at BEST destroying the fabs and at worst gaining full control of the leading 3nm/2nm etc process -A deeper China-Russia alliance, which was expedited by our ineffective sanctions now, puts the screws to US/western companies by blocking access to the latest semiconductor tech

scyzoryk_xyz 4y ago
-Russia wins in Ukraine Russia has so far demonstrated that it isn’t capable of much on that front. Ukraine is a big country, they’re barely doing a city at a time, and they’ve only had success on a small front that they’re very familiar with. -The sanctions were ultimately ineffective, for the reasons you explain above This remains to be seen - they’re definitely “effective” because they’re changing everything, question is how the West could be “miscalculating”. -China takes Taiwan during major US political unrest, at BEST destroying the fabs and at worst gaining full control of the leading 3nm/2nm etc process That would require China to launch an enormous large scale operation, which they’ve just seen can be a total shit show. An invasion would probably not allow them to “take” the 2-3nm process either, and it wouldn’t give them the returns on the investment. Most importantly China currently does not need to be invading Taiwan to be in an advantageous strategic position - they’re “winning” as is. -A deeper China-Russia alliance, which was expedited by our ineffective sanctions now, puts the screws to US/western companies by blocking access to the latest semiconductor tech Currently Russia has only managed to weaken and isolate itself. The symmetrical relationship Putin would need probably isn’t on the table, and Russia isn’t a worthwhile partner for China in such a terrible and toxic condition. (Question is if putting “screws” on western companies is “bad” thing, but that’s another matter.) All of these things worried me before the war, but Russia’s total incompetence has, if anything, greatly held back the China-Russia relationship.
- cpursley 4y ago
  > Russia has so far demonstrated that it isn’t capable of much on that front. Russia is weeks, perhaps days, away from consolidating the Donbas. An area larger than the UK and one of their primary objectives. > Currently Russia has only managed to weaken and isolate itself. Russia is coming out of this with multiple new trade partnerships, financial payment integrations and military alliances.
  - MrRiddle 4y ago
    People don’t realize Donbas is Ukraine’s last real line of defense and their only stronghold. After it falls, and it will soon, it’s a matter of siege and patience. Ability to counterattack will be completely removed.
    - cpursley 4y ago
      After Donbas falls, if history is any lesson - the political situation in Ukraine will implode quickly. We might see a military coup and whoever takes over come to an agreement with Russia.
- butterfly771 4y ago
d0mine 4y ago
> Russia wins in Ukraine NATO population is 10 times that of Russia. The difference in economy/technology/production even more drastic. What winning are you talking about?
- AnimalMuppet 4y ago
  >> Russia wins in Ukraine In Ukraine. NATO's population is irrelevant if Russia is not fighting NATO.
  - d0mine 4y ago
    Except for boots on the ground [officially], NATO does everything else: intelligence, weapons, training, supplies, etc. It is not a secret e.g., https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2022/6/15/infographic-what-weapons-has-ukraine-received-from-the-us-and-al https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2022/6/15/infographic-what-we... Imagine, somebody did it for Afghanistan in 2001 what do you think NATO response would be?
    - AnimalMuppet 4y ago
      Someone (Iran) did do it for Iraq. What was our response?

by zionic 4y ago

scyzoryk_xyz 4y ago

-Russia wins in Ukraine Russia has so far demonstrated that it isn’t capable of much on that front. Ukraine is a big country, they’re barely doing a city at a time, and they’ve only had success on a small front that they’re very familiar with. -The sanctions were ultimately ineffective, for the reasons you explain above This remains to be seen - they’re definitely “effective” because they’re changing everything, question is how the West could be “miscalculating”. -China takes Taiwan during major US political unrest, at BEST destroying the fabs and at worst gaining full control of the leading 3nm/2nm etc process That would require China to launch an enormous large scale operation, which they’ve just seen can be a total shit show. An invasion would probably not allow them to “take” the 2-3nm process either, and it wouldn’t give them the returns on the investment. Most importantly China currently does not need to be invading Taiwan to be in an advantageous strategic position - they’re “winning” as is. -A deeper China-Russia alliance, which was expedited by our ineffective sanctions now, puts the screws to US/western companies by blocking access to the latest semiconductor tech Currently Russia has only managed to weaken and isolate itself. The symmetrical relationship Putin would need probably isn’t on the table, and Russia isn’t a worthwhile partner for China in such a terrible and toxic condition. (Question is if putting “screws” on western companies is “bad” thing, but that’s another matter.) All of these things worried me before the war, but Russia’s total incompetence has, if anything, greatly held back the China-Russia relationship.

cpursley 4y ago
> Russia has so far demonstrated that it isn’t capable of much on that front. Russia is weeks, perhaps days, away from consolidating the Donbas. An area larger than the UK and one of their primary objectives. > Currently Russia has only managed to weaken and isolate itself. Russia is coming out of this with multiple new trade partnerships, financial payment integrations and military alliances.
- MrRiddle 4y ago
  People don’t realize Donbas is Ukraine’s last real line of defense and their only stronghold. After it falls, and it will soon, it’s a matter of siege and patience. Ability to counterattack will be completely removed.
  - cpursley 4y ago
    After Donbas falls, if history is any lesson - the political situation in Ukraine will implode quickly. We might see a military coup and whoever takes over come to an agreement with Russia.
butterfly771 4y ago

d0mine 4y ago

> Russia wins in Ukraine NATO population is 10 times that of Russia. The difference in economy/technology/production even more drastic. What winning are you talking about?

AnimalMuppet 4y ago
>> Russia wins in Ukraine In Ukraine. NATO's population is irrelevant if Russia is not fighting NATO.
- d0mine 4y ago
  Except for boots on the ground [officially], NATO does everything else: intelligence, weapons, training, supplies, etc. It is not a secret e.g., https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2022/6/15/infographic-what-weapons-has-ukraine-received-from-the-us-and-al https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2022/6/15/infographic-what-we... Imagine, somebody did it for Afghanistan in 2001 what do you think NATO response would be?
  - AnimalMuppet 4y ago
    Someone (Iran) did do it for Iraq. What was our response?