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Meanwhile RUB to USD is at its highest in nearly 5 years. Cutting Russia off from SWIFT has only strengthened their ties to India and China. Russia is still inv

• kgran 4y ago
  Good luck finding US dollars for the official rates: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-05-17/in-ussr-flashback-russians-are-hunting-for-black-market-dollars https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-05-17/in-ussr-f...
  • lawxls 4y ago
    Why would we need dollar when ruble go up? Literally don't remember last time buying goods from China was this cheap.
• rich_sasha 4y ago
  Since RUB exchange is so constrained, its "market rate" is also meaningless. I too can issue a currency, set its value at 1,000,000 USD per unit and declare monopoly in trading it.
  • bsedlm 4y ago
    but will you be able to sell fuel and fertilizer?
  • UmbertoNoEco 4y ago
    How many ft3 of gas are you selling daily?
    • snemvalts 4y ago
      Can the gas coupons be used for buying consumer goods? Right now doesn't seem to be the case. Money flows one way. Since Russians don't produce anything except raw materials, high currency value doesn't matter since they can't spend it.
  • lawxls 4y ago
    Lol. Literally just bough a flagship phone from China at a market rate price. (QIWI payment system) Ruble go up, might as well buy a 3080ti next time.
  • andruby 4y ago
    “Set its value at X”. There is no nob or “setting” to do this. There are plenty of Forex exchanges trading RUB for any currency. Including USD, EUR and others. Governments don’t have control over all exchanges so they can’t set the price. The price is determined by supply & demand (ie: the market). Governments do have some levers they can use: buying or selling reserves to put up or downward pressure on the market price. To limit trading of a currency you’d have to limit exchanges to any other currency. If you limit RUB-USD for example, people could still trade RUB-EUR and EUR-USD, thus still creating a defacto RUB-USD pricing.
  • ghostwriter 4y ago
    USD isn't the only currency you can exchange RUB for to conduct mutually beneficial transactions.
• VWWHFSfQ 4y ago
  > diplomatic incompetence What other mechanisms does the world have to try to stop Russia's invasion of Ukraine? Boots on the ground?
  • aeternum 4y ago
    Easier immigration. Smart people generally want to leave authoritarian governments. We've been making it increasingly difficult for almost 2 decades now. It's ridiculous that we turn them away when there is clear evidence that they grow the economic pie for everyone. It's also messed up that we don't consider the downstream effects of sanctions as collateral damage. How many millions of people can the west allow to starve due to sanctions and still hold the moral high-ground? https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/apr/06/sri-lanka-facing-imminent-threat-of-starvation-senior-politician-warns https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/apr/06/sri-lanka-faci...
    • 5e92cb50239222b 4y ago
      As somebody living under another strongman not far from Russia, I second that. Anybody with half a brain here wants to emigrate (and mostly not for economic reasons, but for political/social ones, and to get a chance to make something of yourself), but it's been close to impossible for at least 20 years unless you have millions in the bank (which an honest person is unlikely to have), or manage to win a green card lottery (which several of my acquaintances have done, but it's pure luck). Pretty weird to read all these articles about shortages of IT professionals, and compare that to the immigration barriers your governments have put. Although I guess your typical HN visitor probably wouldn't be very interested in influx of cheap labor that will bring down his salary to sane levels.
  • deleted 4y ago
    [deleted]
• labrador 4y ago
  > At some point you have to consider whether this level of diplomatic incompetence is intentional What would you suggest as an alternative? Continue doing business as usual as if they're not murdering women and children?
  • rajup 4y ago
    Puh-lease. Any other argument other than that tired argument. As if the US military has not been complicit in similar business around the world.
    • labrador 4y ago
      Which of the two, Russia or the US, would you rather live in and associate yourself with?
      • rajup 4y ago
        Not sure how that question is relevant, but if you think the politicians and military brass are worried at all about the “murders of children and women” I have a bridge to sell you.
        • labrador 4y ago
          The 99% who aren't psychopaths worry about it very much as something to be avoided if at all possible
          • rajup 4y ago
            Noble intentions and I agree with you it should be avoided, but again I’m confused that you’re suggesting that morality is the major driver for the actions or inactions of nations around the world when it comes to war. It probably is the major driver for most people as you say, but geopolitics simply don’t work that way.
  • FpUser 4y ago
• realcertify 4y ago
  Absolutely agree. Moreover, it's the diplomatic incompetence on both sides that led to this war, which in my opinion could be easily avoided.
  • VWWHFSfQ 4y ago
    Easily avoided! OK, now let's hear how it could be "easily avoided".
    • somenameforme 4y ago
      This [1] is a 1.5 minute video of NATO expansion since 1949. It was well understood that eastern expansion would, sooner or later, result in conflict with Russia (or the Soviet Union prior). We decided to not just poke the bear but to go cover our arse in honey and twerk in front of it with Aqua's Barbie Girl pumped up to 11. And of course it sounds nice to say sovereign nations ought be able to choose their own alliances and relationships, yet how long do you think that rhetoric would last if Russia managed to get Mexico to join a military alliance that was more or less openly framed as a force to "contain" the United States? And to add extra icing on the cake, what if they managed to get Mexico to join only after actively and overtly supporting an insurrection that overthrew a democratically elected pro-US regime? [1] - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ug2468hDl6E https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ug2468hDl6E
      • klibertp 4y ago
        You're brave. I tried giving a more balanced perspective on this war in the comments here 3 times, and I was called a Russian troll in the first attempt, flagged in the next one, and I lost a lot of karma in the third. You're going to be - at least - downvoted a lot, so I thought I'll join and will get downvoted with you. The more the merrier, right.
        • realcertify 4y ago
          Bad diplomacy in recent times has the same roots - a lot of people stopped accepting balanced views. They think that solely their own opinion is correct, and they start calling names (racist, sexist, troll, etc), downvoting whenever someone expresses a different point of view. Being good diplomat requires very mature and balanced behavior, which a lot of modern politicians lack.
• zionic 4y ago
  I’m concerned the following might play out: -Russia wins in Ukraine -The sanctions were ultimately ineffective, for the reasons you explain above -China takes Taiwan during major US political unrest, at BEST destroying the fabs and at worst gaining full control of the leading 3nm/2nm etc process -A deeper China-Russia alliance, which was expedited by our ineffective sanctions now, puts the screws to US/western companies by blocking access to the latest semiconductor tech
  • scyzoryk_xyz 4y ago
    -Russia wins in Ukraine Russia has so far demonstrated that it isn’t capable of much on that front. Ukraine is a big country, they’re barely doing a city at a time, and they’ve only had success on a small front that they’re very familiar with. -The sanctions were ultimately ineffective, for the reasons you explain above This remains to be seen - they’re definitely “effective” because they’re changing everything, question is how the West could be “miscalculating”. -China takes Taiwan during major US political unrest, at BEST destroying the fabs and at worst gaining full control of the leading 3nm/2nm etc process That would require China to launch an enormous large scale operation, which they’ve just seen can be a total shit show. An invasion would probably not allow them to “take” the 2-3nm process either, and it wouldn’t give them the returns on the investment. Most importantly China currently does not need to be invading Taiwan to be in an advantageous strategic position - they’re “winning” as is. -A deeper China-Russia alliance, which was expedited by our ineffective sanctions now, puts the screws to US/western companies by blocking access to the latest semiconductor tech Currently Russia has only managed to weaken and isolate itself. The symmetrical relationship Putin would need probably isn’t on the table, and Russia isn’t a worthwhile partner for China in such a terrible and toxic condition. (Question is if putting “screws” on western companies is “bad” thing, but that’s another matter.) All of these things worried me before the war, but Russia’s total incompetence has, if anything, greatly held back the China-Russia relationship.
    • cpursley 4y ago
      > Russia has so far demonstrated that it isn’t capable of much on that front. Russia is weeks, perhaps days, away from consolidating the Donbas. An area larger than the UK and one of their primary objectives. > Currently Russia has only managed to weaken and isolate itself. Russia is coming out of this with multiple new trade partnerships, financial payment integrations and military alliances.
• snemvalts 4y ago
  > Meanwhile RUB to USD is at its highest in nearly 5 years Is that meant to demonstrate economic strength? * Russians have massive amount of brain drain. Most of tech employees have left, leaving only people extracting oil, people who turn it into fertilizer and gasoline and supporting roles. * They can't build military tech because of sanctions. Starting to use 1950s and 1960s tanks. * They've privatized and violated tons of foreign companies (for example Renault gave away 68% of car manufacturer Avtovaz to the state). Nobody in their right mind will bring money there in the future. * They can't import smartphones, tech or luxury cars (things that keep russian upper middle class happy). > Cutting Russia off from SWIFT has only strengthened their ties to India and China There has been both strengthening and weakening. Russia depends on China, not the other way around. > and now we're dealing with soaring food and energy prices at home It hurts both ways. This is normal. Appeasement would be a better choice?
  • kgeist 4y ago
    >Most of tech employees have left That's not quite true, as an engineer in Russia, I'm not witnessing massive exodus (yet?)
    • cpursley 4y ago
      Anecdotal, but I know several Russian programmers who've taken jobs in Russia (formally working for western companies) because now with the RUB so strong, they actually make more money working for local companies.
  • 88840-8855 4y ago
    It hurts the Russian, but the Russian lived in the Soviet Union and survived the Crazy 90s. They can suffer way more than Westerns spoiled by prosperity. And the best thing - rich Russian escaping Russia end up being sanctioned, hence, many stay. Let's see who can suffer more: Westerns + accepting a global food crisis with millions of dead people in the Third world (thanks to the sanctions, NOT the war per se) or the Russians who lived like shit before and know that this is yet another round of sufferings.
• mensetmanusman 4y ago
  check volume
• matthewdgreen 4y ago
  >Russia is still invading Ukraine, and now we're dealing with soaring food and energy prices at home. For several years we bet the global economy on the idea that we could safely coexist with an aggressive dictator. That bet did not pan out. I agree with you that the least painful time to remove our dependence on Russian fuel was several years ago, but we failed to take the ample warnings and here we are in a crisis. At least we're finally dealing with it.
  • dariusj18 4y ago
    No, we bet that creating closer ties economically would disincentivize aggressive behavior. It is still to be seen if that pans out, this is the greatest test of the liberal world order, but the repercussions are not seen overnight.
• beefield 4y ago
  > At some point you have to consider whether this level of diplomatic incompetence is intentional. Please, enlighten us, what should be done?
• juve1996 4y ago
  Russia will not come out of this any better. China and India are gleefully picking the bones, and it's hard to blame them. The fudged numbers of the Ruble are irrelevant.
  • cpursley 4y ago
    The EU and other buyers of Russian commodities seem to be paying those fudged numbers as we speak.
    • juve1996 4y ago
      Of course - through necessity. But this will force them to move away and look for other options. You can go ahead and congratulate them on their short term "victories", but long term, I don't see how this benefits them.
      • cpursley 4y ago
        Russia can find new customers before EU can find new suppliers (at least regarding natural gas), which is precisely why we're seeing increases in energy costs.
        • juve1996 4y ago
          It takes infrastructure to move natural gas. They can find customers - but can they get that NG there? Not right now they can't. And there are material shortages everywhere - it will take a long time and it will be more costly in the long run than their European markets. Tensions are already rising between the Saudi's and Russians, who are frustrated with Russia's drop in output since the war started. This will only exacerbate the west moving away from fossil fuels - essentially weakening oil power world wide. On top of that, all the money they're making from oil has been pretty much paying off accumulated foreign debts. People are concerned about the export - but it doesn't matter if you export a lot if you can't import what you need for an extended war effort or for your citizens. I think Russia has already lost this war from a geopolitical perspective. Even if they take the Ukraine, their position is worse than it was from before.
• hdjjhhvvhga 4y ago
  The problem is, if you decide to give up and sacrifice Ukrainians on the altar, there is no guarantee Russia will stop at Ukrainian borders. And several Russian politicians, including Putin himself, suggested otherwise, arguing it's just taking back what's theirs. This basically means invading several other European countries - obviously not now, but at some point in the future. So yes, you could turn a blind eye on Russian soldiers murdering people, stealing, raping, and so on, but it would be naive to think it will eliminate the problem: it will make it worse in the long term.