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The European response to the war is populist and, as you say, self-destructive. But economies and people can only suffer to a limited extent. EU will return t

The European response to the war is populist and, as you say, self-destructive. But economies and people can only suffer to a limited extent. EU will return to Realpolitik soon. Let's face it, the whole bashing of Russia as a "regional power" was idiotic and wrong on the same level as starting the Ukraine war and believing they would win it within a week. Edit: stop downvoting. How silly are you?

deleted 4y ago
[deleted]
jltsiren 4y ago
The EU will not return to anything, because it can't do anything on its own. There are East/North European member states that are genuinely concerned that Russia could attack them next. They advocate for stronger sanctions. And while it's not said aloud, they believe the sanctions should be in place until there is (at least) a regime change in Russia. For them, the real issue is not the war in Ukraine but Putin. And if the economy crashes as a result of the sanctions, it's a small price to pay for safety. That's Realpolitik for them. Then there are West/South European member states that are safe from Russia and mostly just see the economic consequences of the sanctions. They are economically stronger and have more political influence. But if they try to force the issue and lift the sanctions too soon, it could well be the end of the EU.
- 88840-8855 4y ago
  I am sorry, but thinking that Russia will invade the Nordics is dumb. Ukraine made sense, but the Nordics.. that is ridiculous. People will not carry this ideological politics as soon as they will feel the pressure over a longer period. Sanctions will go, mark my words.
  - matthewdgreen 4y ago
    Russia has invaded and taken territory from Georgia and Ukraine, both former Soviet republics. They have not (yet) invaded the former Soviet republics of Lithuania, Latvia or Estonia. These countries are all EU and NATO member states now.
  - jltsiren 4y ago
    The real issue is that the invasion of Ukraine doesn't make sense either. Russia expected a quick victorious "special operation", where the troops go in and the Ukrainian regime collapses with minimal fighting. Those expectations had no basis in reality, and Russia ended up in a major war it didn't want and was not prepared for. If the current Russian regime can start a war based on gross misjudgment, they can do it again. That's a real threat, even if Russian military is not as strong as we used to believe.
    - 88840-8855 4y ago
      This is simply wrong as you dont take history and dont take future into account. History: brzezinski sums it up well. Russia has some weird imperialist interest in Ukraine. They have ZERO historical interests in the Nordics. Future: Finishing this war will take how long? Active conflict 1 year give or take + licking wounds 3 year + restoring economy and finding your way in the new world order 5 years + getting ready for your theoretical war against the Nordics 10 years (this is the time Russia took to get ready for this one). In total: 19 years. How old is Putin again?
      - jltsiren 4y ago
        Specifically from a Finnish perspective: Russia has a weird imperialist interest in Finland. Our history can largely be summarized as "trying to cope with living next to Russia, with varying degrees of success". From the dawn of history, until Napoleonic wars, there was an invasion from the east every generation or two. The invasions only stopped after Sweden lost Finland to Russia. After Finland gained independence, it took only 22 years before there was another invasion. The Cold War and the decades after the collapse of the USSR were the exception. We had a lifetime of peace and prosperity by leaning to the West while maintaining good relations with Russia. But that is over for now, as Putin no longer cares about having good relations with anyone. Russia is big, it's next to us, and it has become unpredictable again. Dealing with that takes priority.
        tut-urut-utut 4y ago
        So you, as a Finnish, are fine with Sweden controlling, occupying and plundering Finland for centuries, but complain about Russia doing the same, only for a shorter time. What's the difference?

deleted 4y ago

[deleted]

jltsiren 4y ago

The EU will not return to anything, because it can't do anything on its own. There are East/North European member states that are genuinely concerned that Russia could attack them next. They advocate for stronger sanctions. And while it's not said aloud, they believe the sanctions should be in place until there is (at least) a regime change in Russia. For them, the real issue is not the war in Ukraine but Putin. And if the economy crashes as a result of the sanctions, it's a small price to pay for safety. That's Realpolitik for them. Then there are West/South European member states that are safe from Russia and mostly just see the economic consequences of the sanctions. They are economically stronger and have more political influence. But if they try to force the issue and lift the sanctions too soon, it could well be the end of the EU.

88840-8855 4y ago
I am sorry, but thinking that Russia will invade the Nordics is dumb. Ukraine made sense, but the Nordics.. that is ridiculous. People will not carry this ideological politics as soon as they will feel the pressure over a longer period. Sanctions will go, mark my words.
- matthewdgreen 4y ago
  Russia has invaded and taken territory from Georgia and Ukraine, both former Soviet republics. They have not (yet) invaded the former Soviet republics of Lithuania, Latvia or Estonia. These countries are all EU and NATO member states now.
- jltsiren 4y ago
  The real issue is that the invasion of Ukraine doesn't make sense either. Russia expected a quick victorious "special operation", where the troops go in and the Ukrainian regime collapses with minimal fighting. Those expectations had no basis in reality, and Russia ended up in a major war it didn't want and was not prepared for. If the current Russian regime can start a war based on gross misjudgment, they can do it again. That's a real threat, even if Russian military is not as strong as we used to believe.
  - 88840-8855 4y ago
    This is simply wrong as you dont take history and dont take future into account. History: brzezinski sums it up well. Russia has some weird imperialist interest in Ukraine. They have ZERO historical interests in the Nordics. Future: Finishing this war will take how long? Active conflict 1 year give or take + licking wounds 3 year + restoring economy and finding your way in the new world order 5 years + getting ready for your theoretical war against the Nordics 10 years (this is the time Russia took to get ready for this one). In total: 19 years. How old is Putin again?
    - jltsiren 4y ago
      Specifically from a Finnish perspective: Russia has a weird imperialist interest in Finland. Our history can largely be summarized as "trying to cope with living next to Russia, with varying degrees of success". From the dawn of history, until Napoleonic wars, there was an invasion from the east every generation or two. The invasions only stopped after Sweden lost Finland to Russia. After Finland gained independence, it took only 22 years before there was another invasion. The Cold War and the decades after the collapse of the USSR were the exception. We had a lifetime of peace and prosperity by leaning to the West while maintaining good relations with Russia. But that is over for now, as Putin no longer cares about having good relations with anyone. Russia is big, it's next to us, and it has become unpredictable again. Dealing with that takes priority.
      - tut-urut-utut 4y ago
        So you, as a Finnish, are fine with Sweden controlling, occupying and plundering Finland for centuries, but complain about Russia doing the same, only for a shorter time. What's the difference?