4 ms·

Ask HN: Gut feeling on North American economy for next 2 years?

5 points by boringg 4y ago

What is everyone else thinking out there? I know where I stand but am curious for other peoples intuition. Interested in global perspectives as well.

ksaj 4y ago
I'm saving money to make lots of stock purchases once it looks like we've reached the bottom. I believe there is a long way to go yet, because we're only starting to feel the effects of the things we were told to expect (supply chain shortage domino effects, war in Ukraine - especially in terms of food and fuel trade, potential for US to begin descent into dictatorship in a couple of years from now, etc.)
- drakonka 4y ago
  How will you know what the bottom will look like?
jelliclesfarm 4y ago
It won’t recover for at least a decade. My opinion/current stance: bearish. Maybe some futures. Example: short semiconductor. Buying neon futures. Also: we might see the end of ‘work’ as we know it in America.
- johng 4y ago
  What are neon futures?
  - jelliclesfarm 4y ago
    https://www.digitaljournal.com/pr/neon-gas-market-is-set-to-fly-high-in-years-to-come https://www.digitaljournal.com/pr/neon-gas-market-is-set-to-... [..] The Latest Released Neon Gas market study has evaluated the future growth potential of Neon Gas market and provides information and useful stats on market structure and size. The report is intended to provide market intelligence and strategic insights to help decision makers take sound investment decisions and identify potential gaps and growth opportunities. Additionally, the report also identifies and analyses changing dynamics, emerging trends along with essential drivers, challenges, opportunities and restraints in Neon Gas market. The study includes market share analysis and profiles of players such as Airgas, Inc. (United States), Air Liquide S.A. (France), Linde AG (Germany), The Messer Group GmbH (Germany), Praxair Technology, Inc. (United Kingdom), Cryoin Engineering Ltd. (Ukraine), Proton Gases (India) Private Limited (India), Sigma-Aldrich Co. LLC (United States), Air Products (United States), Chemicals, Inc. (United States). [..]
    - boringg 4y ago
      How would neon futures be in a strong position in a recession though? Doesn't sound like a defensive industry + if equities are already coming off how do you time the right price to get in?
- randomopining 4y ago
  Why so pessimistic? Why is work over?
  - jelliclesfarm 4y ago
    Automation will take over in multiple sectors. In varying degrees. Is it better to have everyone working little or just a few working a lot? Something will change. We have to keep everyone employed. We are educating everyone now. But how?
    - kimchidude 4y ago
      Could UBI play a possible role?
      - thorin 4y ago
        The UK is now advertising a massive employment rate / very low employment. However obvs that disregards retired, minors, people in full time education, people with medical issues. According to google over 5 million receive Universal Credit, which is kind of a form of UBI to top up wages. This allows big corp to underpay and have it topped up by the Government=>YOU.
      - jelliclesfarm 4y ago
        I don’t think UBI in the form of currency would be useful. I do want to guess that in a time frame 5-10 years, it would make more sense for govt to institute a system where everyone gets free electricity/water/energy and food stamps etc. maslow’s pyramid would be widely popular again. I think the following should be implemented(rather than a prediction) from a Californian pov: 1. Cap population and allow migration to maintain population limit(exodus/immigration/emigration/death rate/birth rate etc). Create a point based immigration system like every other sensible country in the world. 2. Abolish all taxes expect a single flat consumption tax. 3. Automate most of public sector and take governance/voting to the block chain. Every issue goes to a vote. 4. Create a two tiered weighted voting system. One for all residents(issues related to daily living in CA like roads/transport/schools etc..people focused decisions) and another for citizenry(security/energy/environment/capital/infrastructure/elected official..state related decisions) 5. Provide everyone free utilities/food stamps/govt housing/ medical/ education(university as well as vocational). 6. Be food secure, sustainable, energy independent. 7. Remove all campaign funding and keep govt small. Elected officials are public servants. They must serve.
nowherebeen 4y ago
I am predicting stagflation like Japan for the next few years.
MaxHoppersGhost 4y ago
There is a lot of uncertainty right now with the war, inflation, China’s recent lockdowns, and high energy prices. I think once these items stop being more uncertain we’ll be back on track and growing. Some people think there will be a big recession but I haven’t heard a good argument other than finger pointing at current events.
- boringg 4y ago
  I think the good argument is that with the very high level of leverage in the market and people spending their money on the assumption of high equity/bitcoin/real estate values - as the fed shuts down access to cheap money and increases interest rates across the economy - those over levered people tip into getting margins-called, repo'ed, write offs to credit card companies and people losing their homes. I hope that isn't the case but that's the argument. The alliterative is inflation getting into double digits and then the fed having to do even more dramatic things such as increasing the federal funds rate to 20% (highest on record). There are some specific things right now but it feels like they aren't large enough to cause the systemic problems just temporary fires.
- usrn 4y ago
  No. Even with the high immigration rate our population is shrinking. We're about to enter a disintigrative phase. Things are going to get worse and they'll stay that way for quite a while.
- boringg 4y ago
  I would add that I haven't seen a strong bull case emerge on how we navigate the increased fed rate. My suspicion is most institutional investors and the fed is probably pretty happy with some of the hot air going out of the market as long as they can tame inflation. I think there is real fear at the fed that inflation is moving much faster than they thought and they haven't contained it yet. If it goes up higher than they expect after the big rate jump the market is going to step down again on an asset price basis - and we will move faster into a recession.

5 points by boringg 4y ago

What is everyone else thinking out there? I know where I stand but am curious for other peoples intuition. Interested in global perspectives as well.

ksaj 4y ago

I'm saving money to make lots of stock purchases once it looks like we've reached the bottom. I believe there is a long way to go yet, because we're only starting to feel the effects of the things we were told to expect (supply chain shortage domino effects, war in Ukraine - especially in terms of food and fuel trade, potential for US to begin descent into dictatorship in a couple of years from now, etc.)

drakonka 4y ago
How will you know what the bottom will look like?

jelliclesfarm 4y ago

It won’t recover for at least a decade. My opinion/current stance: bearish. Maybe some futures. Example: short semiconductor. Buying neon futures. Also: we might see the end of ‘work’ as we know it in America.

johng 4y ago
What are neon futures?
- jelliclesfarm 4y ago
  https://www.digitaljournal.com/pr/neon-gas-market-is-set-to-fly-high-in-years-to-come https://www.digitaljournal.com/pr/neon-gas-market-is-set-to-... [..] The Latest Released Neon Gas market study has evaluated the future growth potential of Neon Gas market and provides information and useful stats on market structure and size. The report is intended to provide market intelligence and strategic insights to help decision makers take sound investment decisions and identify potential gaps and growth opportunities. Additionally, the report also identifies and analyses changing dynamics, emerging trends along with essential drivers, challenges, opportunities and restraints in Neon Gas market. The study includes market share analysis and profiles of players such as Airgas, Inc. (United States), Air Liquide S.A. (France), Linde AG (Germany), The Messer Group GmbH (Germany), Praxair Technology, Inc. (United Kingdom), Cryoin Engineering Ltd. (Ukraine), Proton Gases (India) Private Limited (India), Sigma-Aldrich Co. LLC (United States), Air Products (United States), Chemicals, Inc. (United States). [..]
  - boringg 4y ago
    How would neon futures be in a strong position in a recession though? Doesn't sound like a defensive industry + if equities are already coming off how do you time the right price to get in?
randomopining 4y ago
Why so pessimistic? Why is work over?
- jelliclesfarm 4y ago
  Automation will take over in multiple sectors. In varying degrees. Is it better to have everyone working little or just a few working a lot? Something will change. We have to keep everyone employed. We are educating everyone now. But how?
  - kimchidude 4y ago
    Could UBI play a possible role?
    - thorin 4y ago
      The UK is now advertising a massive employment rate / very low employment. However obvs that disregards retired, minors, people in full time education, people with medical issues. According to google over 5 million receive Universal Credit, which is kind of a form of UBI to top up wages. This allows big corp to underpay and have it topped up by the Government=>YOU.
    - jelliclesfarm 4y ago
      I don’t think UBI in the form of currency would be useful. I do want to guess that in a time frame 5-10 years, it would make more sense for govt to institute a system where everyone gets free electricity/water/energy and food stamps etc. maslow’s pyramid would be widely popular again. I think the following should be implemented(rather than a prediction) from a Californian pov: 1. Cap population and allow migration to maintain population limit(exodus/immigration/emigration/death rate/birth rate etc). Create a point based immigration system like every other sensible country in the world. 2. Abolish all taxes expect a single flat consumption tax. 3. Automate most of public sector and take governance/voting to the block chain. Every issue goes to a vote. 4. Create a two tiered weighted voting system. One for all residents(issues related to daily living in CA like roads/transport/schools etc..people focused decisions) and another for citizenry(security/energy/environment/capital/infrastructure/elected official..state related decisions) 5. Provide everyone free utilities/food stamps/govt housing/ medical/ education(university as well as vocational). 6. Be food secure, sustainable, energy independent. 7. Remove all campaign funding and keep govt small. Elected officials are public servants. They must serve.

nowherebeen 4y ago

I am predicting stagflation like Japan for the next few years.

MaxHoppersGhost 4y ago

There is a lot of uncertainty right now with the war, inflation, China’s recent lockdowns, and high energy prices. I think once these items stop being more uncertain we’ll be back on track and growing. Some people think there will be a big recession but I haven’t heard a good argument other than finger pointing at current events.

boringg 4y ago
I think the good argument is that with the very high level of leverage in the market and people spending their money on the assumption of high equity/bitcoin/real estate values - as the fed shuts down access to cheap money and increases interest rates across the economy - those over levered people tip into getting margins-called, repo'ed, write offs to credit card companies and people losing their homes. I hope that isn't the case but that's the argument. The alliterative is inflation getting into double digits and then the fed having to do even more dramatic things such as increasing the federal funds rate to 20% (highest on record). There are some specific things right now but it feels like they aren't large enough to cause the systemic problems just temporary fires.
usrn 4y ago
No. Even with the high immigration rate our population is shrinking. We're about to enter a disintigrative phase. Things are going to get worse and they'll stay that way for quite a while.
boringg 4y ago
I would add that I haven't seen a strong bull case emerge on how we navigate the increased fed rate. My suspicion is most institutional investors and the fed is probably pretty happy with some of the hot air going out of the market as long as they can tame inflation. I think there is real fear at the fed that inflation is moving much faster than they thought and they haven't contained it yet. If it goes up higher than they expect after the big rate jump the market is going to step down again on an asset price basis - and we will move faster into a recession.