6 ms·

Crypto is dead.

m00x 4y ago
Bold claims like this is what make people look like idiots when things turn around. With experience though, you can tell that people who make bold claims like this were always idiots gambling away their credibility, hoping the 50/50 lands in their favour.
- wonnage 4y ago
  There’s no turnaround coming
  - TameAntelope 4y ago
    An equally as irrational position as, "Crypto is the best thing ever!"
    - dkural 4y ago
      Was there an Enron turn-around? Crypto does some mildly useful things, which could justify perhaps 1% of the resources going into it.
      - thebean11 4y ago
        That's about as useful as pointing to some equally unrelated thing that did turn around. The truth is nobody here knows either way, and if you did you'd be in the process of becoming very wealthy on that knowledge. Let me make a wild guess that you will not actually be putting your money where your mouth is on this?
      - TameAntelope 4y ago
        Since we're just randomly linking unrelated things, FedEx turned their business around after their CEO saved it from bankruptcy at the blackjack table[0]. [0] https://www.businessinsider.com/fedex-saved-from-bankruptcy-with-blackjack-winnings-2014-7 https://www.businessinsider.com/fedex-saved-from-bankruptcy-...
    - spookthesunset 4y ago
      I mean the end state of crypto isn’t a very positive one. Either it will crash catastrophically or it will slowly fizzle out until the majority of people just forget about it. Either way, at some point virtually nobody will be using it.
      - uncomputation 4y ago
        Speculative assets rarely crash, despite people wanting the drama of it all. If ETH went to $100, enough people would buy it in the hopes it would skyrocket again and make them fabulously wealthy, pushing the price up, but lower than last time, until it cycled back and so on until it fizzles out.
      - danuker 4y ago
        As long as fiat currency keeps getting pumped out, people will want something else, more scarce, to hold their wealth in. That could be bonds, gold, stocks, real estate, or why not crypto? Crypto is easy to transfer.
        thinkharderdev 4y ago
        Because it doesn't seem like Crypto is a good inflation hedge. If you're worried about inflation from unwise increases in the fiat money supply, then it seems like you want something with intrinsic value (real estate, other tangible assets, inflation protected bonds, etc), but crypto is the opposite of that. It's too volatile to be an actual currency so what is it exactly other than a purely speculative asset?
        danuker 4y ago
        Nothing has intrinsic value. All value comes from subjective interpretation of what is valuable. Assets with a cash flow have something you can calculate by discounting future income. But at what rate? The market rate? Some people have a higher time preference compared to the market rate, while others have a lower one. In any case, that preference is not negative as in the EU. Nobody wants to receive money later instead of now. "Other tangible assets" are also a risky bet. Oil hit a negative price in 2020. If supply adjusts to demand, prices should go down as technology makes it cheaper and cheaper to produce things. Even food is subjective. You can eat for optimal health, but few people are doing that, and instead eat much too much meat. Meat requires much more land per gram of protein. What happens if people stop SUBJECTIVELY choosing branded sugar water? Coca Cola goes down, which is what "value" investor Warren Buffett owns as 6.71% of Berkshire. https://whalewisdom.com/filer/berkshire-hathaway-inc#tabholdings_tab_link https://whalewisdom.com/filer/berkshire-hathaway-inc#tabhold...
  - kleer001 4y ago
    Eh? Look again in 2 years at the next bitcoin reward halving.
- ssharp 4y ago
  I'm struggling to find a good analogy to these crypto boom/bust cycles, where the market continues to survive/thrive after the busts. The closest I can come up with is real estate, but there is a core underlying value in real estate in that people need space to live/work/shop/whatever -- so when speculative bubbles burst, there is pretty significant underlying demand. I have a hard time drawing that parallel the crypto. Certainly there are valuable use-cases but the main use-case still seems to be as a speculative investment.
  - JumpCrisscross 4y ago
    > struggling to find a good analogy to these crypto boom/bust cycles Casinos. Seriously [1]. [1] https://pubs.aeaweb.org/doi/pdfplus/10.1257/jep.13.3.173 https://pubs.aeaweb.org/doi/pdfplus/10.1257/jep.13.3.173
  - shrimpx 4y ago
    It’s like betting and gambling. The losers keep coming back thinking they can time it correctly this time around. The game is basically putting money in to get it higher, and timing the top. Crypto being largely meaningless in terms of value is a perfect medium for the game.
  - djbusby 4y ago
    A fool is born every minute. there is an endless supply of those who need to learn the hard way. Keeps the Boom/Bust cycle going.
  - mjr00 4y ago
    Not an asset class, but I'd draw parallels to Texas Hold 'Em. In 2003, Chris Moneymaker wins $2.5 million at the WSOP as an amateur who qualified through the internet; within a year, everyone is talking about hold 'em, their bankroll strategy, having poker nights with their buddies, how they're playing 12 tables at once online, etc. Culminates in massive mainstream acceptance, ads for Pokerstars running on major networks, and a major plot arc in a James Bond movie. But it turns out that nearly everyone is a loser in online poker; after all, at a 6 person table, only 1 person wins (well, 2nd place usually gets their entry fee back, but still). Very few people become Chris Moneymakers; most just lose a bit of cash, some their life savings. Look at where hold 'em is now. It still exists, of course, but you don't see poker tournaments broadcast live on ESPN anymore. It's not even a very popular livestreaming category. It definitely went through a boom, then huge bust, and then a slide into... not really irrelevancy, just kind of a continued existence. IMO, crypto is headed for the same fate. It will still be fun for a subset of people to gamble on altcoins, to pump and dump and run schemes of dubious legality. And just like I wouldn't count out a poker resurgence sometime in the next decade, I wouldn't count out another crypto spike in the future. People never stop loving easy money.
- aquadoggy 4y ago
  In case you didn't get the reference, the Coinbase commercial entirely consists of comments saying "Crypto is dead" with various timestamps going back ten years, and then ... "Long live crypto". https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fCEvIiY0mR4 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fCEvIiY0mR4
- unicornmama 4y ago
- pphysch 4y ago
  Still hodling beanie babies?
mushbino 4y ago
...long live crypto.
- Carioca 4y ago
  There are still tulips around
  - achenet 4y ago
    yeah, but tulips can at least sit there and look pretty.

Crypto is dead.

m00x 4y ago

Bold claims like this is what make people look like idiots when things turn around. With experience though, you can tell that people who make bold claims like this were always idiots gambling away their credibility, hoping the 50/50 lands in their favour.

wonnage 4y ago
There’s no turnaround coming
- TameAntelope 4y ago
  An equally as irrational position as, "Crypto is the best thing ever!"
  - dkural 4y ago
    Was there an Enron turn-around? Crypto does some mildly useful things, which could justify perhaps 1% of the resources going into it.
    - thebean11 4y ago
      That's about as useful as pointing to some equally unrelated thing that did turn around. The truth is nobody here knows either way, and if you did you'd be in the process of becoming very wealthy on that knowledge. Let me make a wild guess that you will not actually be putting your money where your mouth is on this?
    - TameAntelope 4y ago
      Since we're just randomly linking unrelated things, FedEx turned their business around after their CEO saved it from bankruptcy at the blackjack table[0]. [0] https://www.businessinsider.com/fedex-saved-from-bankruptcy-with-blackjack-winnings-2014-7 https://www.businessinsider.com/fedex-saved-from-bankruptcy-...
  - spookthesunset 4y ago
    I mean the end state of crypto isn’t a very positive one. Either it will crash catastrophically or it will slowly fizzle out until the majority of people just forget about it. Either way, at some point virtually nobody will be using it.
    - uncomputation 4y ago
      Speculative assets rarely crash, despite people wanting the drama of it all. If ETH went to $100, enough people would buy it in the hopes it would skyrocket again and make them fabulously wealthy, pushing the price up, but lower than last time, until it cycled back and so on until it fizzles out.
    - danuker 4y ago
      As long as fiat currency keeps getting pumped out, people will want something else, more scarce, to hold their wealth in. That could be bonds, gold, stocks, real estate, or why not crypto? Crypto is easy to transfer.
      - thinkharderdev 4y ago
        Because it doesn't seem like Crypto is a good inflation hedge. If you're worried about inflation from unwise increases in the fiat money supply, then it seems like you want something with intrinsic value (real estate, other tangible assets, inflation protected bonds, etc), but crypto is the opposite of that. It's too volatile to be an actual currency so what is it exactly other than a purely speculative asset?
        danuker 4y ago
        Nothing has intrinsic value. All value comes from subjective interpretation of what is valuable. Assets with a cash flow have something you can calculate by discounting future income. But at what rate? The market rate? Some people have a higher time preference compared to the market rate, while others have a lower one. In any case, that preference is not negative as in the EU. Nobody wants to receive money later instead of now. "Other tangible assets" are also a risky bet. Oil hit a negative price in 2020. If supply adjusts to demand, prices should go down as technology makes it cheaper and cheaper to produce things. Even food is subjective. You can eat for optimal health, but few people are doing that, and instead eat much too much meat. Meat requires much more land per gram of protein. What happens if people stop SUBJECTIVELY choosing branded sugar water? Coca Cola goes down, which is what "value" investor Warren Buffett owns as 6.71% of Berkshire. https://whalewisdom.com/filer/berkshire-hathaway-inc#tabholdings_tab_link https://whalewisdom.com/filer/berkshire-hathaway-inc#tabhold...
- kleer001 4y ago
  Eh? Look again in 2 years at the next bitcoin reward halving.
ssharp 4y ago
I'm struggling to find a good analogy to these crypto boom/bust cycles, where the market continues to survive/thrive after the busts. The closest I can come up with is real estate, but there is a core underlying value in real estate in that people need space to live/work/shop/whatever -- so when speculative bubbles burst, there is pretty significant underlying demand. I have a hard time drawing that parallel the crypto. Certainly there are valuable use-cases but the main use-case still seems to be as a speculative investment.
- JumpCrisscross 4y ago
  > struggling to find a good analogy to these crypto boom/bust cycles Casinos. Seriously [1]. [1] https://pubs.aeaweb.org/doi/pdfplus/10.1257/jep.13.3.173 https://pubs.aeaweb.org/doi/pdfplus/10.1257/jep.13.3.173
- shrimpx 4y ago
  It’s like betting and gambling. The losers keep coming back thinking they can time it correctly this time around. The game is basically putting money in to get it higher, and timing the top. Crypto being largely meaningless in terms of value is a perfect medium for the game.
- djbusby 4y ago
  A fool is born every minute. there is an endless supply of those who need to learn the hard way. Keeps the Boom/Bust cycle going.
- mjr00 4y ago
  Not an asset class, but I'd draw parallels to Texas Hold 'Em. In 2003, Chris Moneymaker wins $2.5 million at the WSOP as an amateur who qualified through the internet; within a year, everyone is talking about hold 'em, their bankroll strategy, having poker nights with their buddies, how they're playing 12 tables at once online, etc. Culminates in massive mainstream acceptance, ads for Pokerstars running on major networks, and a major plot arc in a James Bond movie. But it turns out that nearly everyone is a loser in online poker; after all, at a 6 person table, only 1 person wins (well, 2nd place usually gets their entry fee back, but still). Very few people become Chris Moneymakers; most just lose a bit of cash, some their life savings. Look at where hold 'em is now. It still exists, of course, but you don't see poker tournaments broadcast live on ESPN anymore. It's not even a very popular livestreaming category. It definitely went through a boom, then huge bust, and then a slide into... not really irrelevancy, just kind of a continued existence. IMO, crypto is headed for the same fate. It will still be fun for a subset of people to gamble on altcoins, to pump and dump and run schemes of dubious legality. And just like I wouldn't count out a poker resurgence sometime in the next decade, I wouldn't count out another crypto spike in the future. People never stop loving easy money.
aquadoggy 4y ago
In case you didn't get the reference, the Coinbase commercial entirely consists of comments saying "Crypto is dead" with various timestamps going back ten years, and then ... "Long live crypto". https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fCEvIiY0mR4 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fCEvIiY0mR4
unicornmama 4y ago
pphysch 4y ago
Still hodling beanie babies?

mushbino 4y ago

...long live crypto.

Carioca 4y ago
There are still tulips around
- achenet 4y ago
  yeah, but tulips can at least sit there and look pretty.