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Lottery tickets wouldn't increase your luck surface area, they just would move it (and probably make it a bit smaller). EG: I spent $X on lottery tickets and m

Lottery tickets wouldn't increase your luck surface area, they just would move it (and probably make it a bit smaller). EG: I spent $X on lottery tickets and missed out on having $X more in an investment that did well or having the free cash to sign up for Y class where more "luck" happens. I think honestly the biggest component to "luck" in the real sense is getting yourself out there in the world so that you can force multiply with other people. Nothing happens in a vacuum, and so the more people you have around you that share your same goals and values means you have a better chance of making something happen.

HWR_14 4y ago
> I spent $X on lottery tickets and missed out on having $X more in an investment that did well or having the free cash to sign up for Y class where more "luck" happens. Except the lottery is so cheap that there isn't really a competition for the couple of bucks it costs. Like, you take that $2 and put it into the market. Maybe it turns into $10, and you buy yourself lunch.
vineyardmike 4y ago
Yea except the market can never return the results of a lotto ticket. If I buy $2 worth of equity there is no world that turns into $100M but that’s possible with powerball tickets.
- skmurphy 4y ago
  If you follow that logic every day and end up buying 1,000 tickets you are out $2,000 and you don't win powerball. Market results routinely outperform lottery tickets.
  - vineyardmike 4y ago
    Not what I’m saying and I’m not saying you should buy lottery tickets as an investment. The best-case scenario on $2 in lotto tickets is 100M. (Or whatever the jackpot is). Announced a few days after purchase. The worst case is 0. Announced a few days after purchase. Best case scenario for equity is… 2x? 5x? 20 years later? Worst case is 0, not time bound. The potential return per dollar for a $2 spent is better in lottery. The actual return when accounting for likelihood is different. $2 in the market will never make you a millionaire. But there is a non-zero chance in the lottery. It’s a very low chance the ticket isn’t worth $0 but it’s a chance that’s greater than 0.
    - skmurphy 4y ago
      I am at a loss as to what you are recommending as a course of action.
      - vineyardmike 4y ago
        Nothing. Maybe buy a lotto ticket every few months if you have a couple spare dollars floating around? I’m simply trying to say that that the upside of lotto tickets are way higher than many other activities. It’s almost certainly a bad “investment” strategy. But if you only have $2 then you’re not going to improve your life in the stock market under any conditions but with “luck” a lotto ticket can improve your life.
      - jrm4 4y ago
        Even better, put a small amount in your best guess at long-shot crypto, especially now. A small amount.

HWR_14 4y ago

> I spent $X on lottery tickets and missed out on having $X more in an investment that did well or having the free cash to sign up for Y class where more "luck" happens. Except the lottery is so cheap that there isn't really a competition for the couple of bucks it costs. Like, you take that $2 and put it into the market. Maybe it turns into $10, and you buy yourself lunch.

vineyardmike 4y ago

Yea except the market can never return the results of a lotto ticket. If I buy $2 worth of equity there is no world that turns into $100M but that’s possible with powerball tickets.

skmurphy 4y ago
If you follow that logic every day and end up buying 1,000 tickets you are out $2,000 and you don't win powerball. Market results routinely outperform lottery tickets.
- vineyardmike 4y ago
  Not what I’m saying and I’m not saying you should buy lottery tickets as an investment. The best-case scenario on $2 in lotto tickets is 100M. (Or whatever the jackpot is). Announced a few days after purchase. The worst case is 0. Announced a few days after purchase. Best case scenario for equity is… 2x? 5x? 20 years later? Worst case is 0, not time bound. The potential return per dollar for a $2 spent is better in lottery. The actual return when accounting for likelihood is different. $2 in the market will never make you a millionaire. But there is a non-zero chance in the lottery. It’s a very low chance the ticket isn’t worth $0 but it’s a chance that’s greater than 0.
  - skmurphy 4y ago
    I am at a loss as to what you are recommending as a course of action.
    - vineyardmike 4y ago
      Nothing. Maybe buy a lotto ticket every few months if you have a couple spare dollars floating around? I’m simply trying to say that that the upside of lotto tickets are way higher than many other activities. It’s almost certainly a bad “investment” strategy. But if you only have $2 then you’re not going to improve your life in the stock market under any conditions but with “luck” a lotto ticket can improve your life.
    - jrm4 4y ago
      Even better, put a small amount in your best guess at long-shot crypto, especially now. A small amount.