18 ms·

Kind of like how child mortality in car crashes has decreased below gunshot deaths. And all other pediatric causes of death are now dwarfed by those two.

arminiusreturns 4y ago
Source? I don't think that is an accurate summary, but curious what data you based it on. edit: Ty! edit2: ouch at that firearm suicide number jump
- anoonmoose 4y ago
  This article links to the study that made the claim, and many articles like this were circulating recently https://www.webmd.com/children/news/20220422/guns-now-leading-cause-of-death-for-us-children https://www.webmd.com/children/news/20220422/guns-now-leadin...
- CharlesW 4y ago
  This is in the United States: https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMc2201761 https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMc2201761
- natch 4y ago
halefx 4y ago
That study compared car crashes during Covid lockdown (when people drove far, far less) to gunshot deaths for 1-19 year olds. The overwhelming majority of gun violence is the US is gang activity which is populated heavily by 18 & 19 year old adults. If you consider them "children" for one study, yep, you'll get misleading results.
- anoonmoose 4y ago
  That study, which was linked to by me and another person, includes this chart, which shows that falling youth motor vehicle deaths and rising youth gunshot deaths are both long term trends https://www.nejm.org/na101/home/literatum/publisher/mms/journals/content/nejm/2022/nejm_2022.386.issue-20/nejmc2201761/20220518/images/img_xlarge/nejmc2201761_f1.jpeg https://www.nejm.org/na101/home/literatum/publisher/mms/jour...
  - throwaway894345 4y ago
    Both of those trends show decreasing deaths until about 2013, after which point they began rising again. Notably, the gunshot death curve resembles the overall US homicide death curve, and we have a pretty good idea what was driving that trend.
    - anoonmoose 4y ago
      I'm reading this pretty differently from you, I think. In my view, it looks like until 2013, car deaths were dropping dramatically, and have mostly been bouncing around a steady state since. Whereas deaths were dropping slightly until 2013, and have increased significantly in the years since that. The 2020 car deaths value is close to the 2013-2020 average, but the 2020 (and 2019, and 2018, and 2017) gun deaths are higher than the 2013-2020 average.
      - throwaway894345 4y ago
        Yeah, my claim was simplistic, but the overall idea holds: in both cases there was a marked downward trend until an inflection point in 2013. For gun deaths, that inflection point was a reversal of the downward trend, and for traffic deaths it was an increase followed by a decrease, followed by an increase, but on average since 2013 it's probably pretty level. In whichever case, my point was that it doesn't make sense to characterize traffic deaths as a "long term downward trend" nor to characterize gun deaths as "a long term upward trend".
- Retric 4y ago
  Traffic fatalities where up in 2020 (38,824) and 2021 (42,915) vs 2019(36,355) and 2018(36,835). Fatalities per 100 million VMT jumped more dramatically to 1.34 in 2020 vs 1.1 in 2019. I don’t know why. It might just be random variance, but it’s possible fewer drivers on the roads meant higher speeds or something. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Motor_vehicle_fatality_rate_in_U.S._by_year https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Motor_vehicle_fatality_rate_in...
throwaway894345 4y ago
I don't think child mortality in car crashes has decreased below gunshot deaths. There was a recent economist headline which suggested that gunshot deaths surpassed car accident deaths for young people, but they defined "young people" as 1-24 year olds so as to exclude infant mortality deaths on the low end of the age range and include gun deaths on the high end of the age range. The latter is the most important because those gun deaths were dominated by the 18-24 age range (and within that cohort, black males were driving the gun deaths). Further, it's not so much that car accident deaths decreased below gun deaths as much as gun deaths have increased--specifically, the gun death curve for "young people" mirrors the overall US homicide curve strongly suggesting that the increasing gun deaths among young people are also caused by the same thing as overall homicides: changes in policing over the last decade.
- jrochkind1 4y ago
  > the same thing as overall homicides: changes in policing over the last decade. Not obvious to me that's the cause, or even the nature of the changes you are suggesting a) happened and b) are the cause. Citation?
  - throwaway894345 4y ago
    Here's some copypasta from a recent comment I'd made on another forum, but there are half a dozen other studies that I could cite if I had the time: > For nearly a year, Richard Rosenfeld’s research on crime trends has been used to debunk the existence of a “Ferguson effect”, a suggested link between protests over police killings of black Americans and an increase in crime and murder. ... “The only explanation that gets the timing right is a version of the Ferguson effect,” Rosenfeld said. Now, he said, that’s his “leading hypothesis”. https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2016/may/13/ferguson-effect-real-researcher-richard-rosenfield-second-thoughts https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2016/may/13/ferguson-eff... > From 2014 to 2019, Campbell tracked more than 1,600 BLM protests across the country, largely in bigger cities, with nearly 350,000 protesters. ... Campbell’s research also indicates that these protests correlate with a 10 percent increase in murders in the areas that saw BLM protests. That means from 2014 to 2019, there were somewhere between 1,000 and 6,000 more homicides than would have been expected if places with protests were on the same trend as places that did not have protests. https://www.vox.com/22360290/black-lives-matter-protest-crime-ferguson-effects-murder https://www.vox.com/22360290/black-lives-matter-protest-crim... Famed Harvard economist Roland Fryer looked at cities that had a major BLM shooting and found a sharp increase in homicides and other felonies (900 additional homicides and 34k additional felonies over the course of a few months) compared with the same cities prior to their BLM shootings and compared with other cities which didn't have a BLM shooting. "The leading hypothesis for why these investigations increase homicides and total crime is an abrupt change in the quantity of policing activity. In Chicago, the number of police-civilian interactions decreased by almost 90% in the month after the [police shooting] investigation was announced. In Riverside CA, interactions decreased 54%. In St. Louis, self-initiated police activities declined by 46%." https://www.nber.org/system/files/working\_papers/w27324/w27324.pdf https://www.nber.org/system/files/working\_papers/w27324/w27...

arminiusreturns 4y ago

Source? I don't think that is an accurate summary, but curious what data you based it on. edit: Ty! edit2: ouch at that firearm suicide number jump

anoonmoose 4y ago
This article links to the study that made the claim, and many articles like this were circulating recently https://www.webmd.com/children/news/20220422/guns-now-leading-cause-of-death-for-us-children https://www.webmd.com/children/news/20220422/guns-now-leadin...
CharlesW 4y ago
This is in the United States: https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMc2201761 https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMc2201761
natch 4y ago

halefx 4y ago

That study compared car crashes during Covid lockdown (when people drove far, far less) to gunshot deaths for 1-19 year olds. The overwhelming majority of gun violence is the US is gang activity which is populated heavily by 18 & 19 year old adults. If you consider them "children" for one study, yep, you'll get misleading results.

anoonmoose 4y ago
That study, which was linked to by me and another person, includes this chart, which shows that falling youth motor vehicle deaths and rising youth gunshot deaths are both long term trends https://www.nejm.org/na101/home/literatum/publisher/mms/journals/content/nejm/2022/nejm_2022.386.issue-20/nejmc2201761/20220518/images/img_xlarge/nejmc2201761_f1.jpeg https://www.nejm.org/na101/home/literatum/publisher/mms/jour...
- throwaway894345 4y ago
  Both of those trends show decreasing deaths until about 2013, after which point they began rising again. Notably, the gunshot death curve resembles the overall US homicide death curve, and we have a pretty good idea what was driving that trend.
  - anoonmoose 4y ago
    I'm reading this pretty differently from you, I think. In my view, it looks like until 2013, car deaths were dropping dramatically, and have mostly been bouncing around a steady state since. Whereas deaths were dropping slightly until 2013, and have increased significantly in the years since that. The 2020 car deaths value is close to the 2013-2020 average, but the 2020 (and 2019, and 2018, and 2017) gun deaths are higher than the 2013-2020 average.
    - throwaway894345 4y ago
      Yeah, my claim was simplistic, but the overall idea holds: in both cases there was a marked downward trend until an inflection point in 2013. For gun deaths, that inflection point was a reversal of the downward trend, and for traffic deaths it was an increase followed by a decrease, followed by an increase, but on average since 2013 it's probably pretty level. In whichever case, my point was that it doesn't make sense to characterize traffic deaths as a "long term downward trend" nor to characterize gun deaths as "a long term upward trend".
Retric 4y ago
Traffic fatalities where up in 2020 (38,824) and 2021 (42,915) vs 2019(36,355) and 2018(36,835). Fatalities per 100 million VMT jumped more dramatically to 1.34 in 2020 vs 1.1 in 2019. I don’t know why. It might just be random variance, but it’s possible fewer drivers on the roads meant higher speeds or something. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Motor_vehicle_fatality_rate_in_U.S._by_year https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Motor_vehicle_fatality_rate_in...

throwaway894345 4y ago

I don't think child mortality in car crashes has decreased below gunshot deaths. There was a recent economist headline which suggested that gunshot deaths surpassed car accident deaths for young people, but they defined "young people" as 1-24 year olds so as to exclude infant mortality deaths on the low end of the age range and include gun deaths on the high end of the age range. The latter is the most important because those gun deaths were dominated by the 18-24 age range (and within that cohort, black males were driving the gun deaths). Further, it's not so much that car accident deaths decreased below gun deaths as much as gun deaths have increased--specifically, the gun death curve for "young people" mirrors the overall US homicide curve strongly suggesting that the increasing gun deaths among young people are also caused by the same thing as overall homicides: changes in policing over the last decade.

jrochkind1 4y ago
> the same thing as overall homicides: changes in policing over the last decade. Not obvious to me that's the cause, or even the nature of the changes you are suggesting a) happened and b) are the cause. Citation?
- throwaway894345 4y ago
  Here's some copypasta from a recent comment I'd made on another forum, but there are half a dozen other studies that I could cite if I had the time: > For nearly a year, Richard Rosenfeld’s research on crime trends has been used to debunk the existence of a “Ferguson effect”, a suggested link between protests over police killings of black Americans and an increase in crime and murder. ... “The only explanation that gets the timing right is a version of the Ferguson effect,” Rosenfeld said. Now, he said, that’s his “leading hypothesis”. https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2016/may/13/ferguson-effect-real-researcher-richard-rosenfield-second-thoughts https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2016/may/13/ferguson-eff... > From 2014 to 2019, Campbell tracked more than 1,600 BLM protests across the country, largely in bigger cities, with nearly 350,000 protesters. ... Campbell’s research also indicates that these protests correlate with a 10 percent increase in murders in the areas that saw BLM protests. That means from 2014 to 2019, there were somewhere between 1,000 and 6,000 more homicides than would have been expected if places with protests were on the same trend as places that did not have protests. https://www.vox.com/22360290/black-lives-matter-protest-crime-ferguson-effects-murder https://www.vox.com/22360290/black-lives-matter-protest-crim... Famed Harvard economist Roland Fryer looked at cities that had a major BLM shooting and found a sharp increase in homicides and other felonies (900 additional homicides and 34k additional felonies over the course of a few months) compared with the same cities prior to their BLM shootings and compared with other cities which didn't have a BLM shooting. "The leading hypothesis for why these investigations increase homicides and total crime is an abrupt change in the quantity of policing activity. In Chicago, the number of police-civilian interactions decreased by almost 90% in the month after the [police shooting] investigation was announced. In Riverside CA, interactions decreased 54%. In St. Louis, self-initiated police activities declined by 46%." https://www.nber.org/system/files/working\_papers/w27324/w27324.pdf https://www.nber.org/system/files/working\_papers/w27324/w27...