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This article isn’t wrong, but it lacks a sense of cost effectiveness or trade-offs. Lottery tickets also increase your “surface area“ but they are transparently

by orzig 4y ago

This article isn’t wrong, but it lacks a sense of cost effectiveness or trade-offs. Lottery tickets also increase your “surface area“ but they are transparently more expensive than they’re worth. Reasonable people can debate whether “build a reputation” or the other vague things this article advocates have positive or negative expected value, but this doesn’t really add to the conversation.

ren_engineer 4y ago
every point in this article is just a fancy way of saying you should network and build connections. "Building a reputation" is just a bigger form of networking
e-clinton 4y ago
I agree, I like the general premise of the article but it feels like it should a hell of a lot longer and more nuanced. Perhaps assigning a value to actions that increase the “surface area” and making it more of a “pick your own path” formula
jonnycomputer 4y ago
I'm not sure lottery tickets increase your luck surface area. Its exchanging a sure loss in exchange for the remote possibility of a big win. The expected gain is negative. You pay 5 dollars for a lottery ticket (or whatever they cost these days), and that 5 dollars out of your pocket is an opportunity cost. Or let's put it this way: Imagine that you drive your car for work, and the cost of being unable to repair your car is your job, maybe your house. Now, the chance on any given day that your car breaks down might be, say, 0.1%. Let's say a car repair costs $2000, and let's say you earn $100 in excess of expenses each day, and you have a choice of spending that $100 on 20 lottery tickets, or saving it for the day when your car breaks down. Without going through the tedious exercise of doing the math, it should be plain from common sense that buying lottery tickets--while it increases your luck surface area for winning the lottery--it also increases the probability that you will lose your job and your house...
- jonnycomputer 4y ago
  I think what I really was trying to say is that you can increase your luck surface in one area at the expense of decreasing your luck surface in another, e.g. by not being "lucky" enough to have sufficient funds to recover from a jam like a car break down. Like, just saving money for a rainy day fits the bill for increasing your luck surface.
- Cerium 4y ago
  Lotto tickets increase your luck surface area at an (obviously) unattractive expense. For some people doing some of these activities may also increase their surface area at an unattractive expense.
Raidion 4y ago
Lottery tickets wouldn't increase your luck surface area, they just would move it (and probably make it a bit smaller). EG: I spent $X on lottery tickets and missed out on having $X more in an investment that did well or having the free cash to sign up for Y class where more "luck" happens. I think honestly the biggest component to "luck" in the real sense is getting yourself out there in the world so that you can force multiply with other people. Nothing happens in a vacuum, and so the more people you have around you that share your same goals and values means you have a better chance of making something happen.
- HWR_14 4y ago
  > I spent $X on lottery tickets and missed out on having $X more in an investment that did well or having the free cash to sign up for Y class where more "luck" happens. Except the lottery is so cheap that there isn't really a competition for the couple of bucks it costs. Like, you take that $2 and put it into the market. Maybe it turns into $10, and you buy yourself lunch.
- vineyardmike 4y ago
  Yea except the market can never return the results of a lotto ticket. If I buy $2 worth of equity there is no world that turns into $100M but that’s possible with powerball tickets.
  - skmurphy 4y ago
    If you follow that logic every day and end up buying 1,000 tickets you are out $2,000 and you don't win powerball. Market results routinely outperform lottery tickets.
    - vineyardmike 4y ago
      Not what I’m saying and I’m not saying you should buy lottery tickets as an investment. The best-case scenario on $2 in lotto tickets is 100M. (Or whatever the jackpot is). Announced a few days after purchase. The worst case is 0. Announced a few days after purchase. Best case scenario for equity is… 2x? 5x? 20 years later? Worst case is 0, not time bound. The potential return per dollar for a $2 spent is better in lottery. The actual return when accounting for likelihood is different. $2 in the market will never make you a millionaire. But there is a non-zero chance in the lottery. It’s a very low chance the ticket isn’t worth $0 but it’s a chance that’s greater than 0.

by orzig 4y ago

ren_engineer 4y ago

every point in this article is just a fancy way of saying you should network and build connections. "Building a reputation" is just a bigger form of networking

e-clinton 4y ago

I agree, I like the general premise of the article but it feels like it should a hell of a lot longer and more nuanced. Perhaps assigning a value to actions that increase the “surface area” and making it more of a “pick your own path” formula

jonnycomputer 4y ago

I'm not sure lottery tickets increase your luck surface area. Its exchanging a sure loss in exchange for the remote possibility of a big win. The expected gain is negative. You pay 5 dollars for a lottery ticket (or whatever they cost these days), and that 5 dollars out of your pocket is an opportunity cost. Or let's put it this way: Imagine that you drive your car for work, and the cost of being unable to repair your car is your job, maybe your house. Now, the chance on any given day that your car breaks down might be, say, 0.1%. Let's say a car repair costs $2000, and let's say you earn $100 in excess of expenses each day, and you have a choice of spending that $100 on 20 lottery tickets, or saving it for the day when your car breaks down. Without going through the tedious exercise of doing the math, it should be plain from common sense that buying lottery tickets--while it increases your luck surface area for winning the lottery--it also increases the probability that you will lose your job and your house...

jonnycomputer 4y ago
I think what I really was trying to say is that you can increase your luck surface in one area at the expense of decreasing your luck surface in another, e.g. by not being "lucky" enough to have sufficient funds to recover from a jam like a car break down. Like, just saving money for a rainy day fits the bill for increasing your luck surface.
Cerium 4y ago
Lotto tickets increase your luck surface area at an (obviously) unattractive expense. For some people doing some of these activities may also increase their surface area at an unattractive expense.

Raidion 4y ago

Lottery tickets wouldn't increase your luck surface area, they just would move it (and probably make it a bit smaller). EG: I spent $X on lottery tickets and missed out on having $X more in an investment that did well or having the free cash to sign up for Y class where more "luck" happens. I think honestly the biggest component to "luck" in the real sense is getting yourself out there in the world so that you can force multiply with other people. Nothing happens in a vacuum, and so the more people you have around you that share your same goals and values means you have a better chance of making something happen.

HWR_14 4y ago
> I spent $X on lottery tickets and missed out on having $X more in an investment that did well or having the free cash to sign up for Y class where more "luck" happens. Except the lottery is so cheap that there isn't really a competition for the couple of bucks it costs. Like, you take that $2 and put it into the market. Maybe it turns into $10, and you buy yourself lunch.
vineyardmike 4y ago
Yea except the market can never return the results of a lotto ticket. If I buy $2 worth of equity there is no world that turns into $100M but that’s possible with powerball tickets.
- skmurphy 4y ago
  If you follow that logic every day and end up buying 1,000 tickets you are out $2,000 and you don't win powerball. Market results routinely outperform lottery tickets.
  - vineyardmike 4y ago
    Not what I’m saying and I’m not saying you should buy lottery tickets as an investment. The best-case scenario on $2 in lotto tickets is 100M. (Or whatever the jackpot is). Announced a few days after purchase. The worst case is 0. Announced a few days after purchase. Best case scenario for equity is… 2x? 5x? 20 years later? Worst case is 0, not time bound. The potential return per dollar for a $2 spent is better in lottery. The actual return when accounting for likelihood is different. $2 in the market will never make you a millionaire. But there is a non-zero chance in the lottery. It’s a very low chance the ticket isn’t worth $0 but it’s a chance that’s greater than 0.