28 ms·
It may be that pilot murder-suicides are a terrible problem, but the data in this article does not back this up. The graph of the data they show is an almost te
by vessenes 4y ago
It may be that pilot murder-suicides are a terrible problem, but the data in this article does not back this up. The graph of the data they show is an almost textbook-grade ‘evil’ graph.
What the graph shows is that
* all cause flying mortality is way, way down over the last 30 years
* in raw deaths 2011-2020 was way up over prior decade but only slightly up over the one prior to that
* there has been one crash this year that might have been an m-s crash.
The graph doesn’t use the same time scales for the different bar charts, and doesn’t show any useful data like
* percentages against all air travelers or flights (way, way up since the 90s and down during covid)
* unit number of crashes
* that the stats might be ‘0’ this year after all depending on outcome of investigation of a single flight
Given all this and the raw numbers of people (single digit hundreds per decade), it’s also possible that rather than this being an epidemic, there were like 4 crashes in the 1990s, 0 in the 2000s, 3 in the 2010s, and possibly 1 so far in the early 2020s.
Again, terrible, but if this is the situation, then appropriate response might not be mass publicity, especially because stories like this can be memetically viral and help cause the behavior they describe.
- deleted 4y ago[deleted]
- Retric 4y agoIt’s not about the raw numbers but that “fatalities caused by murder-suicides are becoming an increasingly large share of the total.” The assumption is this a very low probability event that’s neither increasing or decreasing, but if you improve everything else then then people are just going to hear about murder cases like this.
- supertrope 4y agoKind of like how child mortality in car crashes has decreased below gunshot deaths. And all other pediatric causes of death are now dwarfed by those two.
- arminiusreturns 4y agoSource? I don't think that is an accurate summary, but curious what data you based it on. edit: Ty! edit2: ouch at that firearm suicide number jump
- anoonmoose 4y agoThis article links to the study that made the claim, and many articles like this were circulating recently https://www.webmd.com/children/news/20220422/guns-now-leading-cause-of-death-for-us-children https://www.webmd.com/children/news/20220422/guns-now-leadin...
- CharlesW 4y agoThis is in the United States: https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMc2201761 https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMc2201761
- natch 4y ago
- halefx 4y agoThat study compared car crashes during Covid lockdown (when people drove far, far less) to gunshot deaths for 1-19 year olds. The overwhelming majority of gun violence is the US is gang activity which is populated heavily by 18 & 19 year old adults. If you consider them "children" for one study, yep, you'll get misleading results.
- anoonmoose 4y agoThat study, which was linked to by me and another person, includes this chart, which shows that falling youth motor vehicle deaths and rising youth gunshot deaths are both long term trends https://www.nejm.org/na101/home/literatum/publisher/mms/journals/content/nejm/2022/nejm_2022.386.issue-20/nejmc2201761/20220518/images/img_xlarge/nejmc2201761_f1.jpeg https://www.nejm.org/na101/home/literatum/publisher/mms/jour...