5 ms·

Pretty soon you're going to be able to replace "Man" with "Everyone who bought crypto."

toolz 4y ago
You're aware that cryptos market cap is up 900 billion in the past 5 years, right? That means people in crypto are up 900 billion in 5 years overall.
- SketchySeaBeast 4y ago
  At one point the beanie baby market was up billions as well. I'm not saying there won't be winners, but there is going to be an absolute mountain of losers.
  - toolz 4y ago
    Well ignoring the fact that beanie babies still sell for thousands of dollars today, they also never became a countries legally enforce currency (el salvador) or were utilized by the EIB (europes federal reserve equivalent) to issue bonds. I think you'll struggle to find many comparisons to short-lived hypes with cryptocurrency as a category.
    - SketchySeaBeast 4y ago
      True, but something being new doesn't make it more worthy. The subprime lending catastrophe was due to a novel, very popular, idea and people got rich off that as well at first.
      - toolz 4y ago
        Being worthy doesn't really have anything to do with whether something survives the test of time. That's a different, subjective, argument.
        SketchySeaBeast 4y ago
        You're right. Worthy was a bad choice. I simply meant that doesn't mean it would turn out to be useful or stand the test of time as being a good investment just like how for the vast vast majority of people beanie babies weren't and still aren't either.
    - shkkmo 4y ago
      > the fact that beanie babies still sell for thousands of dollars today A few do, most are completely worthless. That really doesn't make cryptocurrencies look any better.
      - toolz 4y ago
        > That really doesn't make cryptocurrencies look any better. or any worse.
  - dvngnt_ 4y ago
    a good opportunity for you to short the market then
    - SketchySeaBeast 4y ago
      You're either for crypto or against it, but either way if you're trying to make money it's due to a greater fool.
      - deleted 4y ago
        [deleted]
      - koonsolo 4y ago
        Not convinced about that. I'm sure the ones who gained the most are the ones who just HODLed.
        SketchySeaBeast 4y ago
        The people who are still holding, or the people who sold at its height, to people who were hoping for more? If the former then they haven't gained anything yet, if the latter, that's the greater fools.
        koonsolo 4y ago
        So you claim this was the top? I claim there will be an even higher top. Let's see who's right. > If the former then they haven't gained anything yet Any asset has risk, including fiat. So no, they did gain already. Or do you expect them to cash out to Bolivar?
        SketchySeaBeast 4y ago
        The top so far. I have no idea about the future. Regardless, when do people sell? When it's at the top? When is that? If it's going up shouldn't you continue to hold? And should you sell when it drops? You haven't. So what's your line in the sand? Should new people be buying in? When should they stop? And then who are you going to sell your coin to? The greater fool. Comparing bitcoins volatility to fiat is ridiculous but regardless, you haven't made any actual guaranteed monetary gains until you sell.
- mjburgess 4y ago
  Yes, it's a big bubble that's going to implode quite hard. There's an implicit phase change in this system: solid to gas. It'll sublime like dry ice in a moment, when bitcoin block is priced at its transaction processing fees. When this all disappears, nothing of value will remain. > By 1635, a sale of 40 bulbs for 100,000 florins (also known as Dutch guilders) was recorded. By way of comparison... , a skilled laborer might earn 150–350 florins a year. What do 40 bitcoins go for now? About 1 mil USD. What's that compared to an average salary? Only 20x. Much less than the 300x of some tulips
  - toolz 4y ago
    The existence of past bubbles is in no way an indicator that something rising quickly with a lot of volatility is a bubble. We're talking about an asset that has national buy-in. When's the last time a national currency went to zero? When's the last time the european bank utilized a financial tool that went to zero?
    - shkkmo 4y ago
      > When's the last time a national currency went to zero? That's an odd argument for a crypto-bro. A bunch of national currencies have failed due to poor financial policies.
      - toolz 4y ago
        > crypto-bro let's all do our best not to turn hacker news into yet another platform for ad-hominem flamewars
        shkkmo 4y ago
        I wasn't aware that "crypto-bro" was considered an attack of any sort. If you took it as insulting I'll avoid its use in the future (Edit: and I apologize for the inadvertent insult). Edit: I though "crypto-bro" is just a short hand for "ardent cryptocurrency supporter". Does it have some other negative meaning/connotation that I am not aware of?
- ReptileMan 4y ago
  That requires 900 billion worth of suckers to buy so they can be able to spend it. Seems we are running out of suckers.
- rnernento 4y ago
  And what value has been created?
nicbou 4y ago
Extend that to everyone whose bank or pension fund invested in crypto.

You're aware that cryptos market cap is up 900 billion in the past 5 years, right? That means people in crypto are up 900 billion in 5 years overall.

SketchySeaBeast 4y ago
At one point the beanie baby market was up billions as well. I'm not saying there won't be winners, but there is going to be an absolute mountain of losers.
- toolz 4y ago
  Well ignoring the fact that beanie babies still sell for thousands of dollars today, they also never became a countries legally enforce currency (el salvador) or were utilized by the EIB (europes federal reserve equivalent) to issue bonds. I think you'll struggle to find many comparisons to short-lived hypes with cryptocurrency as a category.
  - SketchySeaBeast 4y ago
    True, but something being new doesn't make it more worthy. The subprime lending catastrophe was due to a novel, very popular, idea and people got rich off that as well at first.
    - toolz 4y ago
      Being worthy doesn't really have anything to do with whether something survives the test of time. That's a different, subjective, argument.
      - SketchySeaBeast 4y ago
        You're right. Worthy was a bad choice. I simply meant that doesn't mean it would turn out to be useful or stand the test of time as being a good investment just like how for the vast vast majority of people beanie babies weren't and still aren't either.
  - shkkmo 4y ago
    > the fact that beanie babies still sell for thousands of dollars today A few do, most are completely worthless. That really doesn't make cryptocurrencies look any better.
    - toolz 4y ago
      > That really doesn't make cryptocurrencies look any better. or any worse.
- dvngnt_ 4y ago
  a good opportunity for you to short the market then
  - SketchySeaBeast 4y ago
    You're either for crypto or against it, but either way if you're trying to make money it's due to a greater fool.
    - deleted 4y ago
      [deleted]
    - koonsolo 4y ago
      Not convinced about that. I'm sure the ones who gained the most are the ones who just HODLed.
      - SketchySeaBeast 4y ago
        The people who are still holding, or the people who sold at its height, to people who were hoping for more? If the former then they haven't gained anything yet, if the latter, that's the greater fools.
        koonsolo 4y ago
        So you claim this was the top? I claim there will be an even higher top. Let's see who's right. > If the former then they haven't gained anything yet Any asset has risk, including fiat. So no, they did gain already. Or do you expect them to cash out to Bolivar?
        SketchySeaBeast 4y ago
        The top so far. I have no idea about the future. Regardless, when do people sell? When it's at the top? When is that? If it's going up shouldn't you continue to hold? And should you sell when it drops? You haven't. So what's your line in the sand? Should new people be buying in? When should they stop? And then who are you going to sell your coin to? The greater fool. Comparing bitcoins volatility to fiat is ridiculous but regardless, you haven't made any actual guaranteed monetary gains until you sell.
mjburgess 4y ago
Yes, it's a big bubble that's going to implode quite hard. There's an implicit phase change in this system: solid to gas. It'll sublime like dry ice in a moment, when bitcoin block is priced at its transaction processing fees. When this all disappears, nothing of value will remain. > By 1635, a sale of 40 bulbs for 100,000 florins (also known as Dutch guilders) was recorded. By way of comparison... , a skilled laborer might earn 150–350 florins a year. What do 40 bitcoins go for now? About 1 mil USD. What's that compared to an average salary? Only 20x. Much less than the 300x of some tulips
- toolz 4y ago
  The existence of past bubbles is in no way an indicator that something rising quickly with a lot of volatility is a bubble. We're talking about an asset that has national buy-in. When's the last time a national currency went to zero? When's the last time the european bank utilized a financial tool that went to zero?
  - shkkmo 4y ago
    > When's the last time a national currency went to zero? That's an odd argument for a crypto-bro. A bunch of national currencies have failed due to poor financial policies.
    - toolz 4y ago
      > crypto-bro let's all do our best not to turn hacker news into yet another platform for ad-hominem flamewars
      - shkkmo 4y ago
        I wasn't aware that "crypto-bro" was considered an attack of any sort. If you took it as insulting I'll avoid its use in the future (Edit: and I apologize for the inadvertent insult). Edit: I though "crypto-bro" is just a short hand for "ardent cryptocurrency supporter". Does it have some other negative meaning/connotation that I am not aware of?
ReptileMan 4y ago
That requires 900 billion worth of suckers to buy so they can be able to spend it. Seems we are running out of suckers.
rnernento 4y ago
And what value has been created?

nicbou 4y ago

Extend that to everyone whose bank or pension fund invested in crypto.