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I don't believe Scotland will (or should) become independent for exactly the same reasons Northern Ireland should be reunified with Ireland: land borders. Scot
by jmyeet 4y ago
I don't believe Scotland will (or should) become independent for exactly the same reasons Northern Ireland should be reunified with Ireland: land borders.
Scotland shares a land border with England. If Scotland were part of the EU it would have to have a harder border with England. It may exclude itself from the Schengen zone but there's still the EU customs union.
Northern Ireland was the real sticking point in Brexit because of this land border with Ireland. So we ended up with the only compromise possible: Northern Ireland is effectively in the EU customs union, which is somewhat unpopular (it's complicated).
But here's the advantage Northern Ireland has: part of the Good Friday Agreement gives Northern Ireland the ability to withdraw from the Uk and reunify with Ireland [1]. This is something the UK would probably drag their heels on but a lot (myself included) think that Brexit made this inevitable. Demographics also favour this. Broadly speaking, the Republicans are Catholic and generally for reunification. Unionists are Protestants and generally favour remaining part of the UK. Population growth is higher among Republicans.
Scotland has no such mechanism. It was offered an independence referendum in 2014 and voted no. It's not likely it'll be offered another unless Scottish MPs become the balance of power in Westminster for a future government. Given the success the Conservatives had in the last election, that won't happen anytime soon.
One can argue Scotland got jebaited since 2 years later the UK voted for Brexit. Scotland overwhelmingly voted Remain. But Brexit complicates "Scexit" because England (and Wales) is no longer part of the EU customs union.
Remember that just as the UK can and did leave the EU, they can also join again. In 20 years this may be the desired option. I doubt the UK will get the concessions the EU once gave them however so maybe it'll never happen.
[1]: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_Ireland#Good_Friday_Agreement https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_Ireland#Good_Friday_Agr...
- gizajob 4y agoBut Hadrian's wall is already there. We'd just need to fix a few of the holes and throw up some checkpoints and the border would be sorted!
- Wildgoose 4y agoHadrian's Wall is entirely in England. The Anglo-Scottish border more closely follows the River Tweed until it reaches Berwick, (part of England).