3 ms·

> large cuts to public sector spending that would almost certainly be required Why do you think that? We already raise more in taxes than we spend, and right

> large cuts to public sector spending that would almost certainly be required Why do you think that? We already raise more in taxes than we spend, and right now Scotland is heavily subsidising England.

Emma_Goldman 4y ago
Scotland's implied deficit in 2020-21 was £36.3bn, or 22.4% of GDP. [1] When the SNP set up the Sustainable Growth Commission before the last independence vote it advised that public sector cuts would be necessary to reduce the country's deficit to sustainable levels. [2] You can't just make things up because you wish it was so. It is not sensible. [1] https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2021/aug/18/scotland-soaring-deficit-is-no-barrier-to-independence-says-minister https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2021/aug/18/scotland-soa... [2] https://ifs.org.uk/publications/13072 https://ifs.org.uk/publications/13072
- randomsearch 4y ago
  > Scotland's implied deficit in 2020-21 was £36.3bn, or 22.4% of GDP. [1] How has the price of oil changed since then? Cherry picking much?
  - Emma_Goldman 4y ago
    Scotland's deficit is persistent. Between 2014-15 and 2019-20 it averaged 9.2%, compared to 3.2% for the UK as a whole. [1] Infamously, the SNP's envisioned post-independence budget was based on their forecast for annual oil and gas revenues: £10bn. In reality they have averaged an order of magnitude less: £1bn. Oil and gas are volatile commodities so there will be year-to-year fluctuations but the secular trend is clearly downwards. The best wells have run dry, and the UK is committed to net zero by 2050 and Scotland to net zero by 2045. [1] https://www.economicsobservatory.com/what-might-the-public-finances-of-an-independent-scotland-look-like https://www.economicsobservatory.com/what-might-the-public-f...
    - mvc 4y ago
      > the secular trend is clearly downwards Some might see this as an argument for ditching the folks who've overseen this downward trend.
      - Emma_Goldman 4y ago
        Reserves have fallen severalfold since the basin was opened in the 1970s. Oil and gas cannot be produced on the same scale for the same returns as in the past. Most of the best wells have dried up. The UK and Scottish governments are both committed to net zero, which means the managed decline of the North sea oil and gas industry. Sturgeon has publicly taken a harder position on this than Johnson since COP26. If Scotland became independent nothing would change. Unless you think the SNP will confect new reserves out of nothing and abandon their climate pledges?
        mvc 4y ago
        Sorry. I misread the "downward trend" part as pertaining to the economics of the country as a whole, not the oil and gas sector as you clearly stated.
        Gordonjcp 4y ago
        > Oil and gas cannot be produced on the same scale for the same returns as in the past. Oil and gas is dead. We're producing far more electricity from renewables that we use, and England is buying it because they are struggling for power. Do you really think a sane English government is going to let the lights go out because they can't make a deal with an independent Scotland?
    - Gordonjcp 4y ago
      > Scotland's deficit is persistent. Scotland doesn't have a deficit, because Scotland cannot borrow. What there is, is a proportion of the UK as a whole's deficit, which is carved up and apportioned to us, but the Scottish government has no say in what that is or how much.
      - 4y ago
iso1631 4y ago
Citation? I'm going to assume that you are referring to pre-covid. https://www.gov.scot/publications/government-expenditure-revenue-scotland-gers-2019-20/ https://www.gov.scot/publications/government-expenditure-rev... £13-15b deficit per year https://fullfact.org/economy/tax-and-spending-scotland/ https://fullfact.org/economy/tax-and-spending-scotland/ Just one year that revenue (including north sea oil) was higher than spending as a proportion of the UK. Maybe this year too with oil at a high price.
HyprMusic 4y ago
Can you provide any sources for that claim? Full fact does a breakdown that concludes this is not true - https://fullfact.org/economy/scotland-finances-whisky-tax/ https://fullfact.org/economy/scotland-finances-whisky-tax/ It doesn't mention if it includes Northern Sea oil as part of that, but the Governments research goes into more detail and does include oil: https://researchbriefings.files.parliament.uk/documents/SN06625/SN06625.pdf https://researchbriefings.files.parliament.uk/documents/SN06... Of course numbers can be manipulated either way but it doesn't appear to be as clear cut as "Scotland is heavily subsidising England".

Emma_Goldman 4y ago

Scotland's implied deficit in 2020-21 was £36.3bn, or 22.4% of GDP. [1] When the SNP set up the Sustainable Growth Commission before the last independence vote it advised that public sector cuts would be necessary to reduce the country's deficit to sustainable levels. [2] You can't just make things up because you wish it was so. It is not sensible. [1] https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2021/aug/18/scotland-soaring-deficit-is-no-barrier-to-independence-says-minister https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2021/aug/18/scotland-soa... [2] https://ifs.org.uk/publications/13072 https://ifs.org.uk/publications/13072

randomsearch 4y ago
> Scotland's implied deficit in 2020-21 was £36.3bn, or 22.4% of GDP. [1] How has the price of oil changed since then? Cherry picking much?
- Emma_Goldman 4y ago
  Scotland's deficit is persistent. Between 2014-15 and 2019-20 it averaged 9.2%, compared to 3.2% for the UK as a whole. [1] Infamously, the SNP's envisioned post-independence budget was based on their forecast for annual oil and gas revenues: £10bn. In reality they have averaged an order of magnitude less: £1bn. Oil and gas are volatile commodities so there will be year-to-year fluctuations but the secular trend is clearly downwards. The best wells have run dry, and the UK is committed to net zero by 2050 and Scotland to net zero by 2045. [1] https://www.economicsobservatory.com/what-might-the-public-finances-of-an-independent-scotland-look-like https://www.economicsobservatory.com/what-might-the-public-f...
  - mvc 4y ago
    > the secular trend is clearly downwards Some might see this as an argument for ditching the folks who've overseen this downward trend.
    - Emma_Goldman 4y ago
      Reserves have fallen severalfold since the basin was opened in the 1970s. Oil and gas cannot be produced on the same scale for the same returns as in the past. Most of the best wells have dried up. The UK and Scottish governments are both committed to net zero, which means the managed decline of the North sea oil and gas industry. Sturgeon has publicly taken a harder position on this than Johnson since COP26. If Scotland became independent nothing would change. Unless you think the SNP will confect new reserves out of nothing and abandon their climate pledges?
      - mvc 4y ago
        Sorry. I misread the "downward trend" part as pertaining to the economics of the country as a whole, not the oil and gas sector as you clearly stated.
      - Gordonjcp 4y ago
        > Oil and gas cannot be produced on the same scale for the same returns as in the past. Oil and gas is dead. We're producing far more electricity from renewables that we use, and England is buying it because they are struggling for power. Do you really think a sane English government is going to let the lights go out because they can't make a deal with an independent Scotland?
  - Gordonjcp 4y ago
    > Scotland's deficit is persistent. Scotland doesn't have a deficit, because Scotland cannot borrow. What there is, is a proportion of the UK as a whole's deficit, which is carved up and apportioned to us, but the Scottish government has no say in what that is or how much.
    - 4y ago

iso1631 4y ago

Citation? I'm going to assume that you are referring to pre-covid. https://www.gov.scot/publications/government-expenditure-revenue-scotland-gers-2019-20/ https://www.gov.scot/publications/government-expenditure-rev... £13-15b deficit per year https://fullfact.org/economy/tax-and-spending-scotland/ https://fullfact.org/economy/tax-and-spending-scotland/ Just one year that revenue (including north sea oil) was higher than spending as a proportion of the UK. Maybe this year too with oil at a high price.

HyprMusic 4y ago

Can you provide any sources for that claim? Full fact does a breakdown that concludes this is not true - https://fullfact.org/economy/scotland-finances-whisky-tax/ https://fullfact.org/economy/scotland-finances-whisky-tax/ It doesn't mention if it includes Northern Sea oil as part of that, but the Governments research goes into more detail and does include oil: https://researchbriefings.files.parliament.uk/documents/SN06625/SN06625.pdf https://researchbriefings.files.parliament.uk/documents/SN06... Of course numbers can be manipulated either way but it doesn't appear to be as clear cut as "Scotland is heavily subsidising England".