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Obviously the status quo within the UK has changed a lot since the 2014 Scottish independence vote - the key aspect being Brexit. This change was sort of crucia

Obviously the status quo within the UK has changed a lot since the 2014 Scottish independence vote - the key aspect being Brexit. This change was sort of crucial to many of the key talking points in the vote: EU CAP subsidies for farmers, sole EU membership (now from a different prior state), border controls, etc. The prior vote was relatively close (55/45) so it's reasonable to expect that 200k people might've flipped to the 'Yes' camp.

brigandish 4y ago
I honestly don't remember much of the debate being on the EU, though that could be my memory or just my experience of it. It's clearly important, I simply don't agree that it obviates the pledge. UKIP were around, and as I pointed out in another comment (and confirmed by a sibling's helpfully finding the polling info) there were (are) plenty of independence supporters who also wanted out of the EU. If we take the low percentage from those polls of 25% then that eats that 45% by around 500k. I'm not saying that's how it would be this time but it doesn't make for a strong case.