3 ms·
This isn't an argument. You can't point to existing production in light of existing demand and say "this is insurmountable". You might as well be crying "we can
by XorNot 4y ago
This isn't an argument. You can't point to existing production in light of existing demand and say "this is insurmountable". You might as well be crying "we can't switch to electric cars! Where would we get all the electric cars from? Did you know that the current production of electric cars won't meet the demand if everyone switches?"
The question is whether the materials are fundamentally unavailable in the accessible environment.
Cobalt is only 140,000 metric tonnes per year, compared to an estimated 7.1 million tons currently known in reserves (and is a recyclable material).[1]
China alone has 44 million tons of known neodymium. Global production was only 280,000 tons in 2021 but was an increase over 2018 which was 190,000.[2]
Copper has known global reserves of 870 million tons, with 28 million tons a year of demand [3].
Lithium is the only resource where there's potentially an issue - known reserves are about 14 million tons, and production in 2018 was 85,000 tons so we have about 165 years worth at present rates but obviously that would increase. [4]
But all these materials are recyclable - aggressively so. Once they enter the industrial chain they leave it very slowly.
But what's strangest is the context: in a world where computers were expensive, then got so cheap we have them everywhere due to production efficiencies, suddenly on this issue capitalism cannot possibly work. There will only be more expensive goods forever, competition doesn't happen, a "gold rush" to find large reserves of demanded materials could not possibly result in a production boom.
[1] https://www.nsenergybusiness.com/features/largest-cobalt-reserves-country/ https://www.nsenergybusiness.com/features/largest-cobalt-res...
[2] https://investingnews.com/daily/resource-investing/critical-metals-investing/rare-earth-investing/rare-earth-metal-production/ https://investingnews.com/daily/resource-investing/critical-...
[3] https://copperalliance.org/sustainable-copper/about-copper/cu-demand-long-term-availability/ https://copperalliance.org/sustainable-copper/about-copper/c...
[4] https://www.volkswagenag.com/en/news/stories/2020/03/lithium-mining-what-you-should-know-about-the-contentious-issue.html https://www.volkswagenag.com/en/news/stories/2020/03/lithium...