Some people are always pessimistic and some people are always doomy. Let's look at some of the factors causing inflation: * Office workers move from cities to

Some people are always pessimistic and some people are always doomy. Let's look at some of the factors causing inflation: * Office workers move from cities to poor / rural areas - suddenly they need to drive more, serving their needs is less efficient, they need more cars, goods. You can see this by looking at the distribution of inflation across the US - it is highest in the office worker migration destinations. Maybe the cities will get cheaper as they empty out, maybe now everyone who bought a much bigger house and needs furniture has it. The increased demand due to less efficient living will be sticky. * There are supply shocks - sanctions on russian oil, grain, disruptions to Ukrainian exports, china shutdown. These are probably temporary in the medium term. * The demands side is still suppressed - Chinese economy is stalled for multiple reasons, Asia generally is not fully out of COVID, US consumer confidence is falling. If / when China suddenly decides to stimulate with big infrastructure projects we will see more demand pressure. * OPEC previously supressed oil prices to fight american shale and arguably russian oil. These high prices will lead to a resurgence in these competitors. At some point they will turn the taps back on to maintain their monopoly. Writing this incomplete list above, the case I hope to make is that things can get better or worse than here driven by events, but high inflation is probably with us for a while.