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> But nearly 100% of added power usage is supplied by non-renewable resources. I would have agreed with that last year, or at least a decade ago. The role of f

> But nearly 100% of added power usage is supplied by non-renewable resources. I would have agreed with that last year, or at least a decade ago. The role of fossil fuels in power generation has been diminishing, and now everything is weird with the lack of imports from Russia and with the new nuclear plant getting operational. Nobody really knows what will happen in the winter. My impression is that added power is usually supplied by hydro and/or imports. Fossil fuels are almost exclusively used in cogeneration plants, which scale more by the demand for heat than by the demand for power. There are some plants burning coal and gas that are used in cold winter days, but they are normally not competitive enough to run. When it's a rainy year in Norway, their exports are constrained by transmission capacity. It would not be possible to use the hydro exported to Finland anywhere else. In a dry year, any power used in Finland could plausibly increase the demand for fossil fuels elsewhere.

robocat 4y ago
> My impression is that added power is usually supplied by hydro Most hydro is already consumed. Where do you think this extra power comes from? > When it's a rainy year in Norway, their exports are constrained by transmission capacity Yeah, at times there may be water spilled/wasted instead of used for generation, just like excess wind can make electricity prices zero/negative in Germany or Texas. But I am guessing it is a small percentage of generation time (single digit I would guess) so it doesn’t affect my argument.
- jltsiren 4y ago
  Norwegian hydro follows an annual cycle. They get a certain volume of rain and meltwater each year, and they have to use it before the next cycle, or it goes to waste. The terrain is not suitable for the kind of massive reservoirs you may see in the US or Russia. There is often something like 5-10 TWh/year excess power they have a hard time selling. The big issue is that electric markets are not particularly flexible. It's no longer the 20th century, when people regularly burned fuels in easily adjustable plants in order to generate power. There is nuclear, which provides inflexible base capacity. There is cogeneration, where the demand for heat is seasonal and a corresponding amount of power is generated regardless of whether someone is willing to buy it. And then there are solar and wind, which fluctuate wildly and unpredictably and produce an ever increasing share of total power. Hydro is primarily used for filling the gaps. And if it was a rainy year and/or a mild winter, the demand for hydro, in places where it can be exported to, may not be high enough.

robocat 4y ago

> My impression is that added power is usually supplied by hydro Most hydro is already consumed. Where do you think this extra power comes from? > When it's a rainy year in Norway, their exports are constrained by transmission capacity Yeah, at times there may be water spilled/wasted instead of used for generation, just like excess wind can make electricity prices zero/negative in Germany or Texas. But I am guessing it is a small percentage of generation time (single digit I would guess) so it doesn’t affect my argument.

jltsiren 4y ago
Norwegian hydro follows an annual cycle. They get a certain volume of rain and meltwater each year, and they have to use it before the next cycle, or it goes to waste. The terrain is not suitable for the kind of massive reservoirs you may see in the US or Russia. There is often something like 5-10 TWh/year excess power they have a hard time selling. The big issue is that electric markets are not particularly flexible. It's no longer the 20th century, when people regularly burned fuels in easily adjustable plants in order to generate power. There is nuclear, which provides inflexible base capacity. There is cogeneration, where the demand for heat is seasonal and a corresponding amount of power is generated regardless of whether someone is willing to buy it. And then there are solar and wind, which fluctuate wildly and unpredictably and produce an ever increasing share of total power. Hydro is primarily used for filling the gaps. And if it was a rainy year and/or a mild winter, the demand for hydro, in places where it can be exported to, may not be high enough.