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> > > them getting the vaccine doesn't protect others > > Of course it does. > What statistics are you basing this on? I'm not basing it on statistics, I'm b

• roenxi 4y ago
  > I'm not basing it on statistics, I'm basing it on basic knowledge of the mechanics of infectious diseases. The more people in a population have immunity to a disease, the slower it will spread. Your understanding must be faulty, because that isn't how it has played out in practice. I've got an 8 million person state's worth of cases for evidence here. Very well vaccinated, fast and pervasive spread. Based on the official case numbers I can estimate about half the state has had COVID. Possibly more. Follow the science, not your uninformed opinions, and all that jazz. > The people you talk to may think this is true, but there is no way anyone can possibly know this. It doesn't matter what they think, it is impossible for it to be the vaccinated. There aren't enough of them and they've been locked out of a lot of places where superspreader events are happening We had one case in the newspaper of a vaccinated individual who managed to infect ~20 people at a party for example. Or maybe it was 100, I forget. that was early in the 2021-2022 outbreak when a superspreading event was still rare enough to make the news. > Again, there is no way you can possibly know this. Without vaccines, the situation may have been much worse. There most certainly is, the failure was so complete it can be observed from the high level statistics. It can't, the number of cases is basically worse case - we're talking 2.5 million cases with a state population of 8 million. Those are official cases, the actual number of cases is higher. And the case count continues to slow burn/rise. Now, noting that the vaccine claims a >70% reduction in cases on the Pfizer wiki page ... that suggests everyone in the state has been exposed to COVID. At face value there is literally no impact on slowing the spread from the mass vaccination program. The picture here is painted and dried. Vaccines provide good personal protection but have had no impact on the spread of COVID cases. Unvaccinated individuals only posed a threat to themselves. Well meaning people - much like you - were saying things that have turned out not to be true.
  • lisper 4y ago
    > I've got an 8 million person state's worth of cases for evidence here. But the only way you can draw any conclusions is with a control experiment, another country where the vaccination rates were lower but which otherwise imposed the same restrictions, and lifted them under the same initial infection conditions. > it is impossible for it to be the vaccinated I presume you meant "unvaccinated" here. Look, no one disputes that vaccinated people can get infected and so can spread the disease. That does not change the fact that vaccinated people are infected less frequently and recover more quickly than non-vaccinated people, and so they don't spread the disease as efficiently as unvaccinated people. > the number of cases is basically worse case - we're talking 2.5 million cases with a state population of 8 million That's about 6.5 million cases shy of the worst case. > Vaccines provide good personal protection but have had no impact on the spread of COVID cases. Just because everyone who wasn't vaccinated eventually got or will get infected does not mean that the vaccinations had no impact. The rate of spread matters a lot. 2.5 million cases over two years is a lot different than 2.5 million case over two weeks.
    • roenxi 4y ago
      > That does not change the fact that vaccinated people are infected less frequently and recover more quickly than non-vaccinated people, and so they don't spread the disease as efficiently as unvaccinated people. Disease spread is an exponential process. That will delay the date that everyone has gotten COVID by for a week or two. Who cares? > That's about 6.5 million cases shy of the worst case. 2.4 recorded cases is evidence that literally everyone was exposed to COVID. Worst case for what I could have predicted in advance (8 million residents, 70% reduction from vaccine-induced symptomlessness so people don't get teted, predicts around ~2.4 million cases expected if everyone is exposed to COVID. Which is about what happened. High vaccination rates did nothing to delay the spread. The idea that it could has been debunked. It didn't. > The rate of spread matters a lot. That is a different argument, but the evidence I've seen is that that isn't true either - and I already have reason to believe you aren't cross-checking your assumptions against ground truths. The high vaccination rates basically meant that speed of spread was a non-issue. The targeted attacks against unvaccinated people were unwarranted and have look even worse than expected in hindisight. I too was expecting the vaccine to do something about the spread. It just turns out it doesn't.