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Because the Fed is planning on raising rates and initiating QT for multiple months ahead, and they expect these actions to tighten monetary conditions and lower
by PKop 4y ago
Because the Fed is planning on raising rates and initiating QT for multiple months ahead, and they expect these actions to tighten monetary conditions and lower asset prices. If Fed actually does do this for a sustained period of time, everything but the dollar will be crushed, even US treasuries. It would be the polar opposite of printer go brrr.... maybe, vacuum go vrooom, sucking up all the liquidity and decreasing the money supply. If QE/rock bottom rates = everything bubble, the opposite would mean.... pop.
At some point if/when this course of action becomes untenable due to recession/unemployment/too high interest rates given amount of debt in economy, and Fed reverses course (which they did much earlier last tightening cycle in 2018 when markets tanked), those two assets should rise again. Gold particularly falls when real interest rates rise. But, it is likely they are more serious about taking assets down and essentially inducing a recession given the persistent high inflation. The result of fighting that to any real degree means everything keeps going down...which is literally their goal (the reverse wealth affect to slow inflation).
- legutierr 4y ago> At some point if/when this course of action becomes untenable due to recession/unemployment/too high interest rates given amount of debt in economy, and Fed reverses course (which they did much earlier last tightening cycle in 2018 when markets tanked), those two assets should rise again. Right now unemployment is under 4%. The Fed has a lot of leeway to raise rates before what they are doing affects employment, and I'm not sure at all that they will allow unemployment to get too high, if they can help it.