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> I'd doubt BTC will go to zero I think there's some serious liquidity issues coming up ahead. You need a buyer at the other end to sell, and I think there's a

> I'd doubt BTC will go to zero I think there's some serious liquidity issues coming up ahead. You need a buyer at the other end to sell, and I think there's an unknown point where there are effectively no buyers. Right now there are still plenty of crypto-bugs out there that will provide some liquidity because they think things will eventually turn around, but even these people only have so much cash. There's a moment where all of these unsophisticated investors (people that bought crypto based on the ads you're describing) will panic and want to cash out (or need to for personal financial reasons). We may already be seeing the crypto equivalent of a bank run. So much of crypto's "value" is based on the assumption of the future success. A big enough of a collapse in the belief in this future and it will be "trading" back at the levels when BTC was just a hobby project for techies (because that's what it will become again).

spookthesunset 4y ago
The problem is, when does bitcoin actually crash? I agree it is a scam and should crash in a sane rational world. But I’ve heard these exact arguments like 5 years ago. It’s the scam that just keeps going! Eventually it has to end, right? What is the thing that makes it end? Or will it just fizzle out with no real implosion? Maybe after 10 years to most people it would be just a distant memory?
- time_to_smile 4y ago
  > What is the thing that makes it end? This is much easier to answer, at least in general, than many of the other "bubble" questions out there. The growth simply requires a larger and larger pool of new investors. It first started with tech enthusiasts who were really interested in the principles of cryptocurrency and people who also knew how they worked. The was a time when everyone in crypto had read the original Bitcoin whitepaper. Then it spreads to less savvy technical investors, people working at tech companies but not really able to understand it. This was the first bubble a few years back. The crypto boom could have ended here, relatively harmlessly. But then a ton of money started flowing into the market and into individuals pockets as well. Suddenly the pool of potential "investors" opened up and crypto also appeared to be much more liquid than before with the rapid rise of crypto exchanges. This is when you start seeing TV ads for crypto and hear of people on reddit, with no technical knowledge or skills, pouring all their surplus income into crypto. It ends when there aren't enough new "investors" to keep the illusion up, and it crashes as people start to need to liquidate that investment. During the artificial pandemic boom there was money flowing everywhere, people could throw tons of money into crypto and still eat and pay their mortgage. Very soon people are going to need to get that money out, or desperately want to, and then liquidity will be a problem because there aren't any people left to feed into the scheme. The faster the price drops coupled with people needing that money, the more likely a panic is to happen which will cause a sudden crash.
  - spookthesunset 4y ago
    I’ve heard this exact argument 5 or 10 years ago. Yet here we are. Like I said, I totally think cryptocoins are all scams. I’m just amazed that the bottom hasn’t fallen out yet.
    - vineyardmike 4y ago
      You said it for years… but for years there hasn’t been a trigger. There’s a trigger now. The FED keeps raising rates. There’s a looming recession (or perceived to be. Same thing.). Markets, incl crypto are dropping hard. Several crypto projects are suspending withdrawals, locking peoples money away. “Stable” coins are getting dépêgged, which is destabilizing DeFi. We’re starting to see dominos start to fall. Your broken clock may finally be right.
    - time_to_smile 4y ago
      > I’ve heard this exact argument 5 or 10 years ago. Yet here we are. We've had an unprecedented boom period and non-stop money flooding the market for the last 5-10 years so there's no way possible the argument could have come to it's logical fulfillment in that period of time. As long as money is flowing insanely anything is possible, there is no reality. Look at how many startups there are with non-sensical products, insane hiring practices and out of control leadership. When the money just pours in the top of the funnel all kinds of wacky stuff happens. We're starting to reality come back, and I think it may bite us this time.
- vkou 4y ago
  > The problem is, when does bitcoin actually crash? It's impossible to predict. > What is the thing that makes it end? Regulation, sentiment, Tether falling apart, a serious recession... Anything, and nothing could be the last straw. Precisely speaking, it'll end when people, on the net, will stop see buying it as a way to make money. When that will happen is anyone's guess.
- alasdair_ 4y ago
  Bitcoin crashes right after Tether does (which I expect to happen this year at 80% likelihood).

spookthesunset 4y ago

The problem is, when does bitcoin actually crash? I agree it is a scam and should crash in a sane rational world. But I’ve heard these exact arguments like 5 years ago. It’s the scam that just keeps going! Eventually it has to end, right? What is the thing that makes it end? Or will it just fizzle out with no real implosion? Maybe after 10 years to most people it would be just a distant memory?

time_to_smile 4y ago
> What is the thing that makes it end? This is much easier to answer, at least in general, than many of the other "bubble" questions out there. The growth simply requires a larger and larger pool of new investors. It first started with tech enthusiasts who were really interested in the principles of cryptocurrency and people who also knew how they worked. The was a time when everyone in crypto had read the original Bitcoin whitepaper. Then it spreads to less savvy technical investors, people working at tech companies but not really able to understand it. This was the first bubble a few years back. The crypto boom could have ended here, relatively harmlessly. But then a ton of money started flowing into the market and into individuals pockets as well. Suddenly the pool of potential "investors" opened up and crypto also appeared to be much more liquid than before with the rapid rise of crypto exchanges. This is when you start seeing TV ads for crypto and hear of people on reddit, with no technical knowledge or skills, pouring all their surplus income into crypto. It ends when there aren't enough new "investors" to keep the illusion up, and it crashes as people start to need to liquidate that investment. During the artificial pandemic boom there was money flowing everywhere, people could throw tons of money into crypto and still eat and pay their mortgage. Very soon people are going to need to get that money out, or desperately want to, and then liquidity will be a problem because there aren't any people left to feed into the scheme. The faster the price drops coupled with people needing that money, the more likely a panic is to happen which will cause a sudden crash.
- spookthesunset 4y ago
  I’ve heard this exact argument 5 or 10 years ago. Yet here we are. Like I said, I totally think cryptocoins are all scams. I’m just amazed that the bottom hasn’t fallen out yet.
  - vineyardmike 4y ago
    You said it for years… but for years there hasn’t been a trigger. There’s a trigger now. The FED keeps raising rates. There’s a looming recession (or perceived to be. Same thing.). Markets, incl crypto are dropping hard. Several crypto projects are suspending withdrawals, locking peoples money away. “Stable” coins are getting dépêgged, which is destabilizing DeFi. We’re starting to see dominos start to fall. Your broken clock may finally be right.
  - time_to_smile 4y ago
    > I’ve heard this exact argument 5 or 10 years ago. Yet here we are. We've had an unprecedented boom period and non-stop money flooding the market for the last 5-10 years so there's no way possible the argument could have come to it's logical fulfillment in that period of time. As long as money is flowing insanely anything is possible, there is no reality. Look at how many startups there are with non-sensical products, insane hiring practices and out of control leadership. When the money just pours in the top of the funnel all kinds of wacky stuff happens. We're starting to reality come back, and I think it may bite us this time.
vkou 4y ago
> The problem is, when does bitcoin actually crash? It's impossible to predict. > What is the thing that makes it end? Regulation, sentiment, Tether falling apart, a serious recession... Anything, and nothing could be the last straw. Precisely speaking, it'll end when people, on the net, will stop see buying it as a way to make money. When that will happen is anyone's guess.
alasdair_ 4y ago
Bitcoin crashes right after Tether does (which I expect to happen this year at 80% likelihood).