3 ms·
Yes, we got the joke. But suppose in 50 years we come up with a cool technology that is so good it drives cell phone penetration down to 1% (ie young people gr
by aneesh 18y ago
Yes, we got the joke. But suppose in 50 years we come up with a cool technology that is so good it drives cell phone penetration down to 1% (ie young people growing up then never buy cell phones). Then cell phones can make a comeback and double to 2%. And double again to 4%, etc.
- qqq 18y agoIf my_var=current_penetration(Time.now) is at 55%, you'll never double my_var. You'll only be able to double something else. You're trying to use the term "current penetration" at two different times to get different results to change what was supposed to double.
- etal 18y agoBut then, as far as business is concerned, hasn't it already been shown that the cool new technology was a replacement for cell phones? Assuming CoolTech isn't subsequently found to cause the sudden onset of rickets in its users (or whatever), the market for [stuff that stuff that satisfies the need for cell phones] is still saturated. The market won't start roaring again the way it was; cell phones can only cannibalize CoolTech's portion of the market. The latent Apple analogy is making me uncomfortable now, so I'll stop here.