4 ms·
It depends on the unit that is doubling. From how I read the claim, Peter Norvig is using penetration percentage as such unit. Once you reach 50%, doubling mean
by rocha 18y ago
It depends on the unit that is doubling. From how I read the claim, Peter Norvig is using penetration percentage as such unit. Once you reach 50%, doubling means 100%, which is very unlikely since it is almost certain that somewhere in the world there is someone that does not use certain technology (meaning writing, clothing, radio, cellphones or whatever...). In short: the claim is just a clever joke :)
- aneesh 18y agoYes, we got the joke. But suppose in 50 years we come up with a cool technology that is so good it drives cell phone penetration down to 1% (ie young people growing up then never buy cell phones). Then cell phones can make a comeback and double to 2%. And double again to 4%, etc.
- qqq 18y agoIf my_var=current_penetration(Time.now) is at 55%, you'll never double my_var. You'll only be able to double something else. You're trying to use the term "current penetration" at two different times to get different results to change what was supposed to double.
- etal 18y agoBut then, as far as business is concerned, hasn't it already been shown that the cool new technology was a replacement for cell phones? Assuming CoolTech isn't subsequently found to cause the sudden onset of rickets in its users (or whatever), the market for [stuff that stuff that satisfies the need for cell phones] is still saturated. The market won't start roaring again the way it was; cell phones can only cannibalize CoolTech's portion of the market. The latent Apple analogy is making me uncomfortable now, so I'll stop here.