3 ms·

So much hedge against market instability.

rglover 4y ago
Technology cannot and never will correct for human behavior. This is 100% "Mr. Market" behavior just applied to a new technology.
- stillbourne 4y ago
  To me it seems to be amplified here. Additionally, I've been noticing that market fluctuations in cryptocoins seem to actually be a leading indicator of market instability.
  - sgt101 4y ago
    The riskier the investment the more attractive it is to risk takers, who take more risk (by using leverage) and then are more pressured when it fails. There is going to be a big wave of margin calls over the next 24hrs...
  - rglover 4y ago
    > To me it seems to be amplified here. Because it's a smaller scale market compared to traditional markets and it involves technology that takes time to understand which most people won't do. > fluctuations in cryptocoins seem to actually be a leading indicator of market instability. Not terribly surprising when the majority are gambling with it as opposed to looking at it (Bitcoin) for what it is: an escape hatch from tyrannical money. If gamblers need to cover losses in traditional markets, they're more likely to pull that money from the thing they understand the least (because they value it less). Factor in that a lot of people are buying foolishly on leverage they can't cover and kaboom.
elif 4y ago
Was BTC ever 'more stable' on a monthly basis compared to other financial instruments? Do people usually hedge against "market instability" in 6 month increments? This seems like a spurious argument. If you have hedged against USD inflation or stock bubbles or whatever for 5 years in BTC, you are currently up 808%.
- stillbourne 4y ago
  The original case for Bitcoin was made after the 2008 market crash to allow for a tool that could act as a hedge against the market instabilities that led up to the crash. So yeah, it is a spurious argument. It's a spurious argument that was made for bitcoin.
  - elif 4y ago
    That is a confused, post-facto revisionist account of history. The Satoshi whitepaper says the motivations are for "a system for electronic transactions without relying upon trust" and mention nothing about macro-economic forces. For the first few years of Bitcoin, us users had no expectations about the price movement of the coin, let alone value stability. If we had any such delusions at the time, no one would have bought pizza for 10K bitcoins. I wouldn't have bought a Bitcoin t-shirt for 6 Bitcoin. https://bitcoin.org/bitcoin.pdf https://bitcoin.org/bitcoin.pdf

Technology cannot and never will correct for human behavior. This is 100% "Mr. Market" behavior just applied to a new technology.

stillbourne 4y ago
To me it seems to be amplified here. Additionally, I've been noticing that market fluctuations in cryptocoins seem to actually be a leading indicator of market instability.
- sgt101 4y ago
  The riskier the investment the more attractive it is to risk takers, who take more risk (by using leverage) and then are more pressured when it fails. There is going to be a big wave of margin calls over the next 24hrs...
- rglover 4y ago
  > To me it seems to be amplified here. Because it's a smaller scale market compared to traditional markets and it involves technology that takes time to understand which most people won't do. > fluctuations in cryptocoins seem to actually be a leading indicator of market instability. Not terribly surprising when the majority are gambling with it as opposed to looking at it (Bitcoin) for what it is: an escape hatch from tyrannical money. If gamblers need to cover losses in traditional markets, they're more likely to pull that money from the thing they understand the least (because they value it less). Factor in that a lot of people are buying foolishly on leverage they can't cover and kaboom.

elif 4y ago

Was BTC ever 'more stable' on a monthly basis compared to other financial instruments? Do people usually hedge against "market instability" in 6 month increments? This seems like a spurious argument. If you have hedged against USD inflation or stock bubbles or whatever for 5 years in BTC, you are currently up 808%.

stillbourne 4y ago
The original case for Bitcoin was made after the 2008 market crash to allow for a tool that could act as a hedge against the market instabilities that led up to the crash. So yeah, it is a spurious argument. It's a spurious argument that was made for bitcoin.
- elif 4y ago
  That is a confused, post-facto revisionist account of history. The Satoshi whitepaper says the motivations are for "a system for electronic transactions without relying upon trust" and mention nothing about macro-economic forces. For the first few years of Bitcoin, us users had no expectations about the price movement of the coin, let alone value stability. If we had any such delusions at the time, no one would have bought pizza for 10K bitcoins. I wouldn't have bought a Bitcoin t-shirt for 6 Bitcoin. https://bitcoin.org/bitcoin.pdf https://bitcoin.org/bitcoin.pdf