4 ms·

So is this the bubble people talked about when crypto was starting to become mainstream?

rufusroflpunch 4y ago
Yup it’s popping. But it’s not just crypto. The whole economy is popping. Crypto is first because it’s the most leveraged and least regulated. But it’s not going to end there, not by a long shot.
- camelCaseCamel 4y ago
- tru3_power 4y ago
  What’s next?
  - qzw 4y ago
    Subprime auto loans, most likely.
    - diogenescynic 4y ago
      Mortgage backed securities couldn't be sold for any price on Friday: https://www.cherrycreekmortgage.com/lous-credit-news https://www.cherrycreekmortgage.com/lous-credit-news
      - rufusroflpunch 4y ago
        To me, this was very alarming. Shades of 2019 repo crash.
      - adrr 4y ago
        There is a very low amount of subprime mortgage loans. Risk isn't the same as it was during the last recession. Delinquency rate is also trending down. https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DRSFRMACBS https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DRSFRMACBS
  - stripline 4y ago
    Commercial real estate. A lot of contracts will be up for renewal / renegotiation in the next 6-18 months. Many companies will take the opportunity to downsize their physical footprints due to WFH.
- tootie 4y ago
  The whole economy is not popping. Only assets. Equity and crypto were both inflated and experiencing corrections. We're still hovering around 50/50 on likelihood of a real recession. Labor market is still incredibly tight. We could lose a million jobs in the US tomorrow and it would just alleviate upward pressure on wages. Equity will start to recover once inflation is tamped. Crypto, nobody knows. Could recover completely, could go to zero.
  - rufusroflpunch 4y ago
    I think you're wrong. Fed seems determined to crush price inflation, but the inflation is largely driven by supply side issues, which they hold no control over. That means the only way to tamp inflation is by crushing demand into the ground, AKA causing a recession. Soft landing talk was always talk, I think a recession is in the cards and they know it.
  - danaris 4y ago
    Ah, yes, "alleviate upward pressure on wages." What a nice way to say "give employers an excuse to continue refusing raises to employees so they can pocket higher profits at the expense of the entire working class."
    - tootie 4y ago
      I'm describing reality, not philosophizing on ideal outcomes.
      - danaris 4y ago
        The way we describe reality is indicative of, and somewhat shapes, our perception of it. Describing the likelihood that a long-overdue increase in real wages would be cut short by a recession as "alleviating upward pressure on wages"—with "alleviate" being a word with very strong connotations of referring to removing something negative—has a pretty clear implication of wanting that to happen.
        4y ago
TrackerFF 4y ago
People have been warned about high inflation before the war in Ukraine. Then the war broke out, and lots of things got more expensive (fuel, energy), and other commodities are yet to shoot up. Interest rates are going up to fight inflation. So people are facing higher prices from all fronts. What are the first things to get sold off to afford all the various "real life" necessities? high-risk investments. Or any kind of investment, as most people simply do not have any investments.

Yup it’s popping. But it’s not just crypto. The whole economy is popping. Crypto is first because it’s the most leveraged and least regulated. But it’s not going to end there, not by a long shot.

camelCaseCamel 4y ago
tru3_power 4y ago
What’s next?
- qzw 4y ago
  Subprime auto loans, most likely.
  - diogenescynic 4y ago
    Mortgage backed securities couldn't be sold for any price on Friday: https://www.cherrycreekmortgage.com/lous-credit-news https://www.cherrycreekmortgage.com/lous-credit-news
    - rufusroflpunch 4y ago
      To me, this was very alarming. Shades of 2019 repo crash.
    - adrr 4y ago
      There is a very low amount of subprime mortgage loans. Risk isn't the same as it was during the last recession. Delinquency rate is also trending down. https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DRSFRMACBS https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DRSFRMACBS
- stripline 4y ago
  Commercial real estate. A lot of contracts will be up for renewal / renegotiation in the next 6-18 months. Many companies will take the opportunity to downsize their physical footprints due to WFH.
tootie 4y ago
The whole economy is not popping. Only assets. Equity and crypto were both inflated and experiencing corrections. We're still hovering around 50/50 on likelihood of a real recession. Labor market is still incredibly tight. We could lose a million jobs in the US tomorrow and it would just alleviate upward pressure on wages. Equity will start to recover once inflation is tamped. Crypto, nobody knows. Could recover completely, could go to zero.
- rufusroflpunch 4y ago
  I think you're wrong. Fed seems determined to crush price inflation, but the inflation is largely driven by supply side issues, which they hold no control over. That means the only way to tamp inflation is by crushing demand into the ground, AKA causing a recession. Soft landing talk was always talk, I think a recession is in the cards and they know it.
- danaris 4y ago
  Ah, yes, "alleviate upward pressure on wages." What a nice way to say "give employers an excuse to continue refusing raises to employees so they can pocket higher profits at the expense of the entire working class."
  - tootie 4y ago
    I'm describing reality, not philosophizing on ideal outcomes.
    - danaris 4y ago
      The way we describe reality is indicative of, and somewhat shapes, our perception of it. Describing the likelihood that a long-overdue increase in real wages would be cut short by a recession as "alleviating upward pressure on wages"—with "alleviate" being a word with very strong connotations of referring to removing something negative—has a pretty clear implication of wanting that to happen.
      - 4y ago

TrackerFF 4y ago

People have been warned about high inflation before the war in Ukraine. Then the war broke out, and lots of things got more expensive (fuel, energy), and other commodities are yet to shoot up. Interest rates are going up to fight inflation. So people are facing higher prices from all fronts. What are the first things to get sold off to afford all the various "real life" necessities? high-risk investments. Or any kind of investment, as most people simply do not have any investments.