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The sticky thing is the wage market with boomers retiring, reduced immigration, COVID and long COVID removing workers from the job market, and the pandemic in g
by lamontcg 4y ago
The sticky thing is the wage market with boomers retiring, reduced immigration, COVID and long COVID removing workers from the job market, and the pandemic in general pissing people off so they start to demand more at their work, rising unionization, etc.
High energy costs are also not here to stay. There's very clearly the post-pandemic supply shock which has spilled over into high energy costs due to a bullwhip effect. And there's the war in Ukraine, which will not last forever. There's also a buildup in inventories now (the bullwhip is coming back around) and there's no huge demand for container ships from China right now. High energy costs didn't stick in 2007, they didn't stick in 2014 and they won't stick this time. Commodities/Energy inflation is cyclical.
- amaranth 4y agoThe argument for high oil and gas costs sticking around this time is that the producers have realized they'll be effectively wiped out in 20-30 years, assuming we get anywhere close to meeting climate goals. There will always be a need for oil and gas but if it's not being used for most heating, transportation, or electricity generation that demand will be a pittance of what they get today. This realization has led them to essentially halt new production and lean hard in to scarcity to get all they can out of a dying market, even if doing so makes that market die faster.
- lamontcg 4y agoThat is what some people thought the last two times oil prices spiked.