Funnily almost exactly a year ago I was feeling uneasy about the whole frothy job market and was looking around for signals to locate the moment in a business c

Funnily almost exactly a year ago I was feeling uneasy about the whole frothy job market and was looking around for signals to locate the moment in a business cycle. Back then [1], Fed was signalling that they'd begin rate hikes by 2023. Hindsight; fed acted couple of quarters too late IMO. They completely evaded or invented new ways ("transitory") to describe scorching inflation as early as one year ago that was experienced by people on ground. And when the data came in around Nov 2021 they began to be getting their acts together but by then it was way too late. Though I agree with you; it's not straightforward. No one expected Putin to invade Ukraine, so there's that. But the signs of fed rate hike was clear IMO. If one wanted to be prepared and forego some of the profit they had about an year to prepare. [1] https://www.aljazeera.com/economy/2021/6/16/federal-reserve-raises-inflation-expectations-mulls-2023-liftoff https://www.aljazeera.com/economy/2021/6/16/federal-reserve-...