This book[0] documents a researcher doing exactly that, and it confirms your opinion. It's what fueled Superforcasting, and most of what legitimizes prediction

This book[0] documents a researcher doing exactly that, and it confirms your opinion. It's what fueled Superforcasting, and most of what legitimizes prediction markets [0] https://www.goodreads.com/book/show/89158.Expert_Political_Judgment https://www.goodreads.com/book/show/89158.Expert_Political_J...