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"We're not in a recession, we're in the early stages of a depression. A depression is a self-feeding liquidity crisis - it's a cash-flow squeeze that occurs whe
by lol1lol 4y ago
"We're not in a recession, we're in the early stages of a depression. A depression is a self-feeding liquidity crisis - it's a cash-flow squeeze that occurs when the economy turns down, inventories are being sold, borrowings increased, and liquidity reduced."
- Raymond T. Dalio, New York Times, Jun 27, 1982
"For decades the numbers have told us that each time the capacity utilization figure moves over 85 percent, the inflation rate rises, and also that each inflation cycle tends to peak at a higher level than the preceding one. During this inflation cycle, we expect capacity utilization to cross the 85 percent line by early 1985, when the CPI should be running at an annual rate of 7.8 percent and well on its way to a cyclical peak of about 11.5 percent sometime in 1986."
- Raymond T. Dalio, New York Times, Jun 17, 1984
Industrial production from Jun 1982 through Jun 1984:
http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/graph/?g=rU2 http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/graph/?g=rU2
Inflation from Jun 1984 through Jun 1986:
http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/graph/?g=rU3 http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/graph/?g=rU3
- nojito 4y agoSince then he has returned 2x the S&P.
- WestCoastJustin 4y agoIf you google "ray dalio 1980" you'll see he's talked about that being his biggest mistake and massive learning opportunity [1, 2, 3]. He even dedicated a chapter to it in his book (chapter 3) [4]. It's sort of hard to fault someone for being wrong 40 years ago and think they have nothing new to contribute. Suspect we'd all be completely screwed if we were wrong, never learned from it, and just continued on. No idea if he's right or wrong but guess time will tell. What you're implying here though, that because someone was wrong at a point in time, learned from it, evolved and changed their way of thinking, then think that all their future stuff is tainted somehow, seems pretty strange. [1] https://www.cnbc.com/2019/12/04/billionaire-ray-dalio-was-once-broke-and-borrowed-money-from-his-dad-to-pay-family-bills.html https://www.cnbc.com/2019/12/04/billionaire-ray-dalio-was-on... [2] https://www.businessinsider.com/bridgewater-ray-dalio-lesson-from-going-broke-2017-4 https://www.businessinsider.com/bridgewater-ray-dalio-lesson... [3] https://www.forbes.com/sites/stephaniedenning/2018/01/23/is-success-found-in-failure-lessons-from-ray-dalio/?sh=38a8bbac19b9 https://www.forbes.com/sites/stephaniedenning/2018/01/23/is-... [4] https://www.amazon.com/Principles-Life-Work-Ray-Dalio/dp/1501124021/ https://www.amazon.com/Principles-Life-Work-Ray-Dalio/dp/150...
- civilized 4y agoI'm not impressed with his story about what he learned from it. He basically says he learned that sometimes he can be wrong. No indication of whether he's learned when he's more likely to be wrong or right. If you must simp for billionaires, Jim Simons, Bill Gates, and the Collison brothers are somewhat more interesting people IMO.
- WestCoastJustin 4y agoMore of a Musk fan myself. Since you mentioned him, Jim Simons has a really good interview too and it was pretty cool to hear his story [1]. Worth a watch if you haven't seen it and are into RenTec. [1] https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QNznD9hMEh0 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QNznD9hMEh0
- caminante 4y agoWhat argument are you making? > Two (or more) of his predictions proved wrong. Therefore, he lacks credibility? Hedge fund managers make wrong predictions all the time. Did you find a systemic flaw in his approach?