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Toyota is in the car business. Toyota is "all in" on making and selling cars. Toyota sells more cars than anyone: https://global.toyota/en/company/profile/prod

Toyota is in the car business. Toyota is "all in" on making and selling cars. Toyota sells more cars than anyone: https://global.toyota/en/company/profile/production-sales-figures/202112.html https://global.toyota/en/company/profile/production-sales-fi... https://www.motor1.com/news/563816/toyota-beats-vag-2021-sales/ https://www.motor1.com/news/563816/toyota-beats-vag-2021-sal...

charles_kaw 4y ago
Yes, but incoming regulation is going to make selling gasoline cars increasingly difficult. That includes Europe, especially. If Toyota is in the business of selling cars, they're going to have problems when large swaths of the population are incentivized to buy electric cars, and Toyota has a limited selection. So, these pension funds are probably right to be worried that Toyota has dropped the ball on this.
- clouddrover 4y ago
  But Toyota hasn't dropped the ball as the sales figures demonstrate. Toyota probably has timed it right: https://www.theverge.com/2021/12/14/22833997/toyota-ev-investment-lexus-concept-vehicles https://www.theverge.com/2021/12/14/22833997/toyota-ev-inves...
  - charles_kaw 4y ago
    Toyota's battery manufacturing capabilities are extremely behind the curve. There will likely be a few years where they are unable to make nearly enough to meet demand. That is why a lot of investors are unhappy.
- toast0 4y ago
  If the only reason selling gasoline cars is difficult is regulations, it makes sense to sell as many as you can before the regulations make it hard. And to try to make sure you didn't make too many that you can't legally sell in the intended market. Economically, it probably makes sense to try to push back on the regulations too. Seperate from that, you do want to be prepared to switch to what you can legally sell. But there's no reason to ramp up producing a less desirable good before the mandate comes into force. (Of course, you could argue about EVs being more or less desirable... but that's a different argument than saying you should switch before the mandate; I personally think the addressable market is clearly smaller with EVs vs gas powered too; also, I think hydrogen cars are clearly worse than natural gas cars, and natural gas cars didn't survive in the US market, so I don't think hydrogen cars are a good investment, but that's not really the claim either)
paranoidrobot 4y ago
Toyota is heavily pushing their hydrogen tech. They've got great hybrid-gasoline vehicles, but are insisting that the future is Hydrogen fuel-cell for normal passenger vehicles. The only ones that benefit from that are Toyota and the fossil-fuel industry who would love for Hydrogen to be the next fuel, because then they can keep their LNG operations going for longer.
- clouddrover 4y ago
  > but are insisting that the future is Hydrogen fuel-cell for normal passenger vehicles. False: https://www.caranddriver.com/news/g38515115/toyota-lexus-future-evs/ https://www.caranddriver.com/news/g38515115/toyota-lexus-fut... https://www.theverge.com/2021/12/14/22833997/toyota-ev-investment-lexus-concept-vehicles https://www.theverge.com/2021/12/14/22833997/toyota-ev-inves... It's not either BEV or FCEV exclusively. It's both.
  - paranoidrobot 4y ago
    Concept vehicles are really nothing more than a marketing effort. They don't represent an actual plan to produce any of these vehicles. Toyota has a single production BEV, which is due to be released "Real Soon Now" in the US, and next year in Australia. But they're only going to make about 7,000 of them[1] this year. They are still heavily pushing their fuel-cell vehicles, along with FUD about how BEVs will cause the electric grid to melt down if everyone owns a BEV and all plug it in at once. For example, this Toyota-sponsored video series from Diana Cowern (Physics Girl) is full of FUD and half-truths about BEVs, while neatly side-stepping the reality that all the cheap sources of Hydrogen are from LNG. [2] [1] https://www.autonews.com/cars-concepts/its-best-consider-2023-toyota-bz4x-ev-numbers https://www.autonews.com/cars-concepts/its-best-consider-202... [2] There's a whole bunch of videos in the series and it's too long for me to go through and pick out individual quotes, but these two videos are IIRC the main ones: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dWAO3vUn7nw https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dWAO3vUn7nw https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hghIckc7nrY https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hghIckc7nrY
    - 4y ago

charles_kaw 4y ago

Yes, but incoming regulation is going to make selling gasoline cars increasingly difficult. That includes Europe, especially. If Toyota is in the business of selling cars, they're going to have problems when large swaths of the population are incentivized to buy electric cars, and Toyota has a limited selection. So, these pension funds are probably right to be worried that Toyota has dropped the ball on this.

clouddrover 4y ago
But Toyota hasn't dropped the ball as the sales figures demonstrate. Toyota probably has timed it right: https://www.theverge.com/2021/12/14/22833997/toyota-ev-investment-lexus-concept-vehicles https://www.theverge.com/2021/12/14/22833997/toyota-ev-inves...
- charles_kaw 4y ago
  Toyota's battery manufacturing capabilities are extremely behind the curve. There will likely be a few years where they are unable to make nearly enough to meet demand. That is why a lot of investors are unhappy.
toast0 4y ago
If the only reason selling gasoline cars is difficult is regulations, it makes sense to sell as many as you can before the regulations make it hard. And to try to make sure you didn't make too many that you can't legally sell in the intended market. Economically, it probably makes sense to try to push back on the regulations too. Seperate from that, you do want to be prepared to switch to what you can legally sell. But there's no reason to ramp up producing a less desirable good before the mandate comes into force. (Of course, you could argue about EVs being more or less desirable... but that's a different argument than saying you should switch before the mandate; I personally think the addressable market is clearly smaller with EVs vs gas powered too; also, I think hydrogen cars are clearly worse than natural gas cars, and natural gas cars didn't survive in the US market, so I don't think hydrogen cars are a good investment, but that's not really the claim either)

paranoidrobot 4y ago

Toyota is heavily pushing their hydrogen tech. They've got great hybrid-gasoline vehicles, but are insisting that the future is Hydrogen fuel-cell for normal passenger vehicles. The only ones that benefit from that are Toyota and the fossil-fuel industry who would love for Hydrogen to be the next fuel, because then they can keep their LNG operations going for longer.

clouddrover 4y ago
> but are insisting that the future is Hydrogen fuel-cell for normal passenger vehicles. False: https://www.caranddriver.com/news/g38515115/toyota-lexus-future-evs/ https://www.caranddriver.com/news/g38515115/toyota-lexus-fut... https://www.theverge.com/2021/12/14/22833997/toyota-ev-investment-lexus-concept-vehicles https://www.theverge.com/2021/12/14/22833997/toyota-ev-inves... It's not either BEV or FCEV exclusively. It's both.
- paranoidrobot 4y ago
  Concept vehicles are really nothing more than a marketing effort. They don't represent an actual plan to produce any of these vehicles. Toyota has a single production BEV, which is due to be released "Real Soon Now" in the US, and next year in Australia. But they're only going to make about 7,000 of them[1] this year. They are still heavily pushing their fuel-cell vehicles, along with FUD about how BEVs will cause the electric grid to melt down if everyone owns a BEV and all plug it in at once. For example, this Toyota-sponsored video series from Diana Cowern (Physics Girl) is full of FUD and half-truths about BEVs, while neatly side-stepping the reality that all the cheap sources of Hydrogen are from LNG. [2] [1] https://www.autonews.com/cars-concepts/its-best-consider-2023-toyota-bz4x-ev-numbers https://www.autonews.com/cars-concepts/its-best-consider-202... [2] There's a whole bunch of videos in the series and it's too long for me to go through and pick out individual quotes, but these two videos are IIRC the main ones: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dWAO3vUn7nw https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dWAO3vUn7nw https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hghIckc7nrY https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hghIckc7nrY
  - 4y ago