> Is there a way to arrive at a proto-consensus fast — without leaving out the real contingent that everything we know is wrong? possibly some form of predicti

> Is there a way to arrive at a proto-consensus fast — without leaving out the real contingent that everything we know is wrong? possibly some form of prediction market? explicitly reward (give more power to) individuals who are repeatedly correct about the future, and over time such people gain more influence and the overall predictions become more reliable. there have been small-scale prediction markets throughout covid (“what will be the daily case count on 1 August 2022 as reported by CDC?”). that naive approach has some obvious conflict of interest/opportunity for exploitation. but it sounds worthwhile for someone to explore how quickly the various prediction markets have converged throughout their relatively short history, to see if there’s anything there.