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I can't predict the future. But I think the residential housing market is due to correct. The Federal reserve is indicating that they will continue with 0.50b
by lamontcg 4y ago
I can't predict the future.
But I think the residential housing market is due to correct.
The Federal reserve is indicating that they will continue with 0.50bp tightening at every meeting through the end of the year, and then on until inflation is under control. They're mentioning Volker and talking tough on inflation.
This is very different from the 0.25bp tightening and very measured "not too hot, not too cold" messaging from the Fed under Greenspan in 2003-2006 tightening cycle -- which still popped the housing bubble and led to the 2008 collapse.
They're going to crash the economy to get wages back under control. That means inverting the yield curve. That means CMBS probably pops and another financial crisis. The stock market is already having a massive anxiety attack about it. I can't see how residential real estate doesn't adjust.
And if the recent speculation that the only rescue for downtown commercial real estate in a remote-work world is condoizing into residential that means a flood of supply on the market.
Given rising rates it is definitely time to buckle up though.
The problem may be that at the best points to buy you may not be able to get a loan because you've lost your job.