That’s fine but not relevant to my point. Those things also all existed last time nominal rates were at this level. My point is real rates are dramatically lowe

That’s fine but not relevant to my point. Those things also all existed last time nominal rates were at this level. My point is real rates are dramatically lower now than last time. This is going to keep demand high, maybe not from the same individual buyer as before but there’s a good reason we see institutional gobbling up all this real estate. The market doesn’t differentiate between institutional and retail buyers when a house goes up for sale. However all those property taxes and HOA fees are tax deductible for institutional buyers. I don’t think that’s good of course - and I’m not advocating people run out and buy a house either - I’m just saying, there’s a ton of factors that make “housing market collapse imminent” more of a pipe dream than a sure thing. How much did housing go down in SF during COVID? Charts say zero, and that’s during the biggest exodus of people actually living there in recent memory.