4 ms·

Timing any market is a fool's errand. One thing you can always do, though, is ignore the opinions of an interested party. Realtors are the prime example. They

Timing any market is a fool's errand. One thing you can always do, though, is ignore the opinions of an interested party. Realtors are the prime example. They will always tell you that "houses always go up, and this period we're living through -- that'll be just transitory. So buy now." Ignore them. Another thing you can always do is ignore anything you read in the press. Those reporters just have space to fill, and they know nothing. If they do know anything, it's six months out of date. If you're sure we're in a secular downturn for housing, like after the 2007 crash, then waiting a bit will be appropriate. Otherwise, just do what makes sense for own situation, and don't worry what "they" say.

cudgy 4y ago
> Timing any market is a fool's errand. So just buy everything all the time and it will all work out? Smart money loves people with this philosophy; it gives them a nice supply of suckers to sell their obviously inflated assets. There is no need to time a market perfectly; one can gradually rotate out of overpriced assets and into underpriced assets using basic common sense measures. This is called investing as opposed to blind confidence or speculative hope of everything “just working out”. The ironic thing is that people with this philosophy of always buy and never sell or shift asset classes are inherently timing the market on when they will sell their risky stock assets … when they need to retire or when they need the money in x years.
- Cupertino95014 4y ago
  > So just buy everything all the time and it will all work out? No, that's your interpretation. I should clarify what I meant there: it's about calling the bottom or calling the top, on a short-term basis. No one can do that. > one can gradually rotate out of overpriced assets and into underpriced assets that's different from timing the market. If you think you can do it, then publish your portfolio's performance over a long period of time (10 years or more).
rootsudo 4y ago
This. I've been reading 2005-2008 papers, again - as I was doing these back in school for current issues. It's exciting how some things never change. More fear and gloom nowadays though. But it's quite the ride, the worst would be a documentary like this - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OcrKdWcxS8c https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OcrKdWcxS8c but this is a complete 180 from todays situation. We just don't have construction - and well, Lehigh Acres, FLorida has always been known to be a consilidated house of cards. But much of FLorida has been too, that's how Miami got founded, a bit and even Orlando which is a "bunch" of swamp land. So it's interesting, how lately I've been traveling and land/house are valued so differently in the west coast, e.g. California and entire pacific coast. Florida is pray to the alure of vacation homes of NorthEasters, while North Westers go to Arizona or New Mexico, another exciting migration pattern. Cash out, buy new place, live a life of excess and then, die?

cudgy 4y ago

> Timing any market is a fool's errand. So just buy everything all the time and it will all work out? Smart money loves people with this philosophy; it gives them a nice supply of suckers to sell their obviously inflated assets. There is no need to time a market perfectly; one can gradually rotate out of overpriced assets and into underpriced assets using basic common sense measures. This is called investing as opposed to blind confidence or speculative hope of everything “just working out”. The ironic thing is that people with this philosophy of always buy and never sell or shift asset classes are inherently timing the market on when they will sell their risky stock assets … when they need to retire or when they need the money in x years.

Cupertino95014 4y ago
> So just buy everything all the time and it will all work out? No, that's your interpretation. I should clarify what I meant there: it's about calling the bottom or calling the top, on a short-term basis. No one can do that. > one can gradually rotate out of overpriced assets and into underpriced assets that's different from timing the market. If you think you can do it, then publish your portfolio's performance over a long period of time (10 years or more).

rootsudo 4y ago

This. I've been reading 2005-2008 papers, again - as I was doing these back in school for current issues. It's exciting how some things never change. More fear and gloom nowadays though. But it's quite the ride, the worst would be a documentary like this - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OcrKdWcxS8c https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OcrKdWcxS8c but this is a complete 180 from todays situation. We just don't have construction - and well, Lehigh Acres, FLorida has always been known to be a consilidated house of cards. But much of FLorida has been too, that's how Miami got founded, a bit and even Orlando which is a "bunch" of swamp land. So it's interesting, how lately I've been traveling and land/house are valued so differently in the west coast, e.g. California and entire pacific coast. Florida is pray to the alure of vacation homes of NorthEasters, while North Westers go to Arizona or New Mexico, another exciting migration pattern. Cash out, buy new place, live a life of excess and then, die?