3 ms·
Somebody is always trying to call the top of the bubble, but nobody really knows. People told me I was being stupid for buying last year after the initial COVID
by jurassic 4y ago
Somebody is always trying to call the top of the bubble, but nobody really knows. People told me I was being stupid for buying last year after the initial COVID price surge, and still my home's nominal value is up something like ~10% since then even as interest rates have risen. Math tells you that interest rates and prices should be inversely correlated, but accounting for the changing value of the currency units themself and changing supply/demand situation is something the simple understanding can't explain. With supply still very constrained in many markets and inflation seemingly here to stay, I have a hard time seeing a large correction any time soon.
Your personal financial situation matters a great deal in the decision. I took the plunge last year because I had about ~$300k sitting in cash for a downpayment and inflation news was making me nervous. You probably don't want to be holding onto a lot of cash in this environment as dollars lose value and nominal prices continue to rise. Taking out a big debt at a moderate fixed interest rate seems like a great idea in a high-inflation environment, assuming the payments are comfortable for you to make and you don't mind staying in the home for the long term. If inflation exceeds your interest rate, the house is getting cheaper for you to own (in real terms) over time.
If I hadn't bought a home I would've been strongly tempted to throw the money back into the market. But knowing I wanted to buy a home on a relatively short timescale this would've been a very poor decision, especially looking at how the market has performed since that time.