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This estimate has British economic woes mostly down to Brexit, compared to a model built from the observed performance of other advanced economies: https://www

This estimate has British economic woes mostly down to Brexit, compared to a model built from the observed performance of other advanced economies: https://www.cer.eu/publications/archive/policy-brief/2022/cost-brexit-so-far https://www.cer.eu/publications/archive/policy-brief/2022/co...

krona 4y ago
Not a single error bar or measure of statistical confidence. In other words, unfalsifiable econometric woo-woo.
- stevesimmons 4y ago
  So what is your estimate?
  - toxicFork 4y ago
    Pandemic
- Imnimo 4y ago
  What is on pages 8-10?
mypastself 4y ago
I encourage others here to read the study and analyze its methodology before outright accepting the conclusions of a self-described “think-tank devoted to making the EU work better, and strengthening its role in the world“. One of the several issues is with how the “dopplegängers” are selected. A basket of (weighted) countries is selected with economic structures and pre-Brexit performance similar to the UK. I haven’t analyzed the linked Python code and datasets, but the text gives scant information on what exactly makes a specific country similar or dissimilar to the UK. The rare exception is when it compares UK’s GDP growth with Australia’s and New Zealand’s instead of Italy’s, when it says it ignored the latter because of its “rapidly ageing” population. In the “Services trade” rubric, UK actually outperforms the dopplegänger, until the author removes the country with the largest weight, at which point the UK’s advantage disappears. This could be interpreted as some questionable data massaging. None of which is to say that I necessarily think Brexit was, or will be, an economic success for the UK. This is not something that can be easily determined at this point, especially with Covid. But these studies should be taken with a grain of salt.

krona 4y ago

Not a single error bar or measure of statistical confidence. In other words, unfalsifiable econometric woo-woo.

stevesimmons 4y ago
So what is your estimate?
- toxicFork 4y ago
  Pandemic
Imnimo 4y ago
What is on pages 8-10?

mypastself 4y ago

I encourage others here to read the study and analyze its methodology before outright accepting the conclusions of a self-described “think-tank devoted to making the EU work better, and strengthening its role in the world“. One of the several issues is with how the “dopplegängers” are selected. A basket of (weighted) countries is selected with economic structures and pre-Brexit performance similar to the UK. I haven’t analyzed the linked Python code and datasets, but the text gives scant information on what exactly makes a specific country similar or dissimilar to the UK. The rare exception is when it compares UK’s GDP growth with Australia’s and New Zealand’s instead of Italy’s, when it says it ignored the latter because of its “rapidly ageing” population. In the “Services trade” rubric, UK actually outperforms the dopplegänger, until the author removes the country with the largest weight, at which point the UK’s advantage disappears. This could be interpreted as some questionable data massaging. None of which is to say that I necessarily think Brexit was, or will be, an economic success for the UK. This is not something that can be easily determined at this point, especially with Covid. But these studies should be taken with a grain of salt.