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The neighboring EU is not doing any better and maybe heading to the crumble of Eurozone - though not immediately. Italy is now living basically on the debt fun

The neighboring EU is not doing any better and maybe heading to the crumble of Eurozone - though not immediately. Italy is now living basically on the debt funded by Northern European countries and soon this might come to the end with the widening spreads and markets not believing Italy’s ability to serve its debt. Either the money printer must brrrr, with massive inflation, or Italy, maybe Greece and Spain to default their bonds. https://www.reuters.com/business/finance/some-european-states-rising-debt-costs-rekindle-2011-crisis-memories-2022-05-10/ https://www.reuters.com/business/finance/some-european-state...

jacobolus 4y ago
This estimate has British economic woes mostly down to Brexit, compared to a model built from the observed performance of other advanced economies: https://www.cer.eu/publications/archive/policy-brief/2022/cost-brexit-so-far https://www.cer.eu/publications/archive/policy-brief/2022/co...
- krona 4y ago
  Not a single error bar or measure of statistical confidence. In other words, unfalsifiable econometric woo-woo.
  - stevesimmons 4y ago
    So what is your estimate?
    - toxicFork 4y ago
      Pandemic
  - Imnimo 4y ago
    What is on pages 8-10?
- mypastself 4y ago
  I encourage others here to read the study and analyze its methodology before outright accepting the conclusions of a self-described “think-tank devoted to making the EU work better, and strengthening its role in the world“. One of the several issues is with how the “dopplegängers” are selected. A basket of (weighted) countries is selected with economic structures and pre-Brexit performance similar to the UK. I haven’t analyzed the linked Python code and datasets, but the text gives scant information on what exactly makes a specific country similar or dissimilar to the UK. The rare exception is when it compares UK’s GDP growth with Australia’s and New Zealand’s instead of Italy’s, when it says it ignored the latter because of its “rapidly ageing” population. In the “Services trade” rubric, UK actually outperforms the dopplegänger, until the author removes the country with the largest weight, at which point the UK’s advantage disappears. This could be interpreted as some questionable data massaging. None of which is to say that I necessarily think Brexit was, or will be, an economic success for the UK. This is not something that can be easily determined at this point, especially with Covid. But these studies should be taken with a grain of salt.
TheOtherHobbes 4y ago
Maybe you didn't read all the way to the end. "For all that, debt sustainability is not an imminent risk." The UK is in far worse shape because Brexit has nuked a huge hole in the economy. 4% is about £80bn a year. But the real problems are systemic and political. The UK has been taken over by a far right cabal of criminals and opportunists who think nothing of wasting tens of billions of government - in addition to Brexit - while demonising asylum seekers and those on low earnings as a distraction. Britain has the potential to be a powerhouse, but its political class is one of the least competent and credible in all of the G20.
- ilrwbwrkhv 4y ago
  Agreed. Having spent substantial amounts of time in the UK, it is clear that there is a new group who are there to just enrich themselves.
  - kapuasuite 4y ago
    > a new group who are there to just enrich themselves. The UK’s been ruled by a relatively small hereditary aristocracy for, what, 1,000 years? A self-interested political class is hardly a new phenomenon there.
    - lisper 4y ago
      The UK has a hereditary aristocracy, but it has been several centuries since it actually ruled the country.
      - elbigbad 4y ago
        And there is a big difference between a hereditary aristocracy and a government of people who are just interested in enriching themselves.
      - ivarv 4y ago
        The 'Queen's consent' is more of a political lever than is typically acknowledged. See https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2021/feb/08/queen-power-british-law-queens-consent https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2021/feb/08/queen-...
Zigurd 4y ago
In British English Brexit was an "own goal." In American English Brexit was a "self own."

jacobolus 4y ago

This estimate has British economic woes mostly down to Brexit, compared to a model built from the observed performance of other advanced economies: https://www.cer.eu/publications/archive/policy-brief/2022/cost-brexit-so-far https://www.cer.eu/publications/archive/policy-brief/2022/co...

krona 4y ago
Not a single error bar or measure of statistical confidence. In other words, unfalsifiable econometric woo-woo.
- stevesimmons 4y ago
  So what is your estimate?
  - toxicFork 4y ago
    Pandemic
- Imnimo 4y ago
  What is on pages 8-10?
mypastself 4y ago
I encourage others here to read the study and analyze its methodology before outright accepting the conclusions of a self-described “think-tank devoted to making the EU work better, and strengthening its role in the world“. One of the several issues is with how the “dopplegängers” are selected. A basket of (weighted) countries is selected with economic structures and pre-Brexit performance similar to the UK. I haven’t analyzed the linked Python code and datasets, but the text gives scant information on what exactly makes a specific country similar or dissimilar to the UK. The rare exception is when it compares UK’s GDP growth with Australia’s and New Zealand’s instead of Italy’s, when it says it ignored the latter because of its “rapidly ageing” population. In the “Services trade” rubric, UK actually outperforms the dopplegänger, until the author removes the country with the largest weight, at which point the UK’s advantage disappears. This could be interpreted as some questionable data massaging. None of which is to say that I necessarily think Brexit was, or will be, an economic success for the UK. This is not something that can be easily determined at this point, especially with Covid. But these studies should be taken with a grain of salt.

TheOtherHobbes 4y ago

Maybe you didn't read all the way to the end. "For all that, debt sustainability is not an imminent risk." The UK is in far worse shape because Brexit has nuked a huge hole in the economy. 4% is about £80bn a year. But the real problems are systemic and political. The UK has been taken over by a far right cabal of criminals and opportunists who think nothing of wasting tens of billions of government - in addition to Brexit - while demonising asylum seekers and those on low earnings as a distraction. Britain has the potential to be a powerhouse, but its political class is one of the least competent and credible in all of the G20.

ilrwbwrkhv 4y ago
Agreed. Having spent substantial amounts of time in the UK, it is clear that there is a new group who are there to just enrich themselves.
- kapuasuite 4y ago
  > a new group who are there to just enrich themselves. The UK’s been ruled by a relatively small hereditary aristocracy for, what, 1,000 years? A self-interested political class is hardly a new phenomenon there.
  - lisper 4y ago
    The UK has a hereditary aristocracy, but it has been several centuries since it actually ruled the country.
    - elbigbad 4y ago
      And there is a big difference between a hereditary aristocracy and a government of people who are just interested in enriching themselves.
    - ivarv 4y ago
      The 'Queen's consent' is more of a political lever than is typically acknowledged. See https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2021/feb/08/queen-power-british-law-queens-consent https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2021/feb/08/queen-...

Zigurd 4y ago

In British English Brexit was an "own goal." In American English Brexit was a "self own."