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Those real world autopilot averages happen exclusively in the most trivial driving situations. Fair weather and almost exclusively on limited access roads. No r

by usrusr 4y ago

Those real world autopilot averages happen exclusively in the most trivial driving situations. Fair weather and almost exclusively on limited access roads. No real world average driver dataset exists that is similarly restricted to the subset of least error-prone driving situations.

Retric 4y ago
Fair weather limited access highways is one of many datasets available. However, Autopilot operates in wet and rainy conditions so that’s hardly an accurate assessment. Weather bad enough to prevent autopilot is a contributing factor ~5% of accidents. “On average, there are over 5,891,000 vehicle crashes each year. Approximately 21% of these crashes - nearly 1,235,000 - are weather-related” “ 70% on wet pavement and 46% during rainfall. A much smaller percentage of weather-related crashes occur during winter conditions: 18% during snow or sleet, 13% occur on icy pavement and 16% of weather-related crashes take place on snowy or slushy pavement. Only 3% happen in the presence of fog.” https://ops.fhwa.dot.gov/weather/q1_roadimpact.htm https://ops.fhwa.dot.gov/weather/q1_roadimpact.htm
moduspol 4y ago
But it is also not the case that people are crashing and dying left and right from the FSD beta, or as a result of using Autopilot in less than ideal conditions. This despite OTA updates increasing functionality and millions more cars being sold. Even if what you're saying is true: it is empirically true that in practice, humans take over when necessary. The statistics aren't there. The risks people have been shouting about for years just haven't materialized. If regulatory agencies are looking to reduce crashes, injuries, or deaths, there must be dozens of more effective places to focus attention on than Autopilot. But it's 2022, and yet again, it's on the front page of Hacker News, and the top comment is (you guessed it): the naming of the features is the problem. It's Groundhog Day all over again. Geesh.

by usrusr 4y ago

Retric 4y ago

Fair weather limited access highways is one of many datasets available. However, Autopilot operates in wet and rainy conditions so that’s hardly an accurate assessment. Weather bad enough to prevent autopilot is a contributing factor ~5% of accidents. “On average, there are over 5,891,000 vehicle crashes each year. Approximately 21% of these crashes - nearly 1,235,000 - are weather-related” “ 70% on wet pavement and 46% during rainfall. A much smaller percentage of weather-related crashes occur during winter conditions: 18% during snow or sleet, 13% occur on icy pavement and 16% of weather-related crashes take place on snowy or slushy pavement. Only 3% happen in the presence of fog.” https://ops.fhwa.dot.gov/weather/q1_roadimpact.htm https://ops.fhwa.dot.gov/weather/q1_roadimpact.htm

moduspol 4y ago

But it is also not the case that people are crashing and dying left and right from the FSD beta, or as a result of using Autopilot in less than ideal conditions. This despite OTA updates increasing functionality and millions more cars being sold. Even if what you're saying is true: it is empirically true that in practice, humans take over when necessary. The statistics aren't there. The risks people have been shouting about for years just haven't materialized. If regulatory agencies are looking to reduce crashes, injuries, or deaths, there must be dozens of more effective places to focus attention on than Autopilot. But it's 2022, and yet again, it's on the front page of Hacker News, and the top comment is (you guessed it): the naming of the features is the problem. It's Groundhog Day all over again. Geesh.