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I bought FSD version of Model 3 in the spring of 2020 I don't understand how people keep falling for this. Sure, it seemed realistic enough at first but how ma
by causality0 4y ago
I bought FSD version of Model 3 in the spring of 2020
I don't understand how people keep falling for this. Sure, it seemed realistic enough at first but how many cracks in the facade are too many to ignore? In 2015 Musk said two years. In 2016 he said two years. In 2017 he said two years. Tesla did a 180 on the fundamental requirements of FSD and decided it doesn't need lidar just because they had a falling-out with their lidar supplier. That level of ego-driven horseshit is dangerous.
- bagels 4y agoIt's still not actually available to people who paid for it, and it doesn't actually work* (at least not to a degree where it can be trusted not to crash in to street signs or parked cars). I have no idea why anyone pays a $10k premium for vaporware.
- netsharc 4y agoGotta love the apologists as well, because hey, if I admit I was conned out of money for some buggy-ass deadly software, then who's the idiot, and I know I'm not an idiot, so this software works, yeah it has a few kinks, but it's great, and soon it'll be chaffeuring me all over the place! Soon! He tweeted!
- pengaru 4y agoI suspect the venn diagram of people paying $10k for Tesla vaporware and people who've realized >$10k in gains trading TSLA stock is pretty close to a circle.
- bagels 4y agoI think that is actually a decent point. Definitely know people that bought Teslas with their Tesla stock gains.
- cecilpl2 4y agoI've made enough off TSLA to afford a Tesla, but I'm actually now considering the Ioniq 5 over the Model Y. Specs are very similar and it's like 2/3 the price. I've been a believer in Tesla for a decade now but it is starting to seem like the competition is catching up.
- alistairSH 4y ago$10k is insane. That’s 1/4 the price of my nicely loaded Honda Ridgeline (or pretty much any well-loaded mainstream sedan or crossover). Yah, I don’t have an AI trying to drive (and crash into fire engines) for me, but I have basic lane-keeping, auto braking, and assisted cruise. I still have to drive the car. The horror.
- mceachen 4y agoFSD is now a $12k premium. https://www.tesla.com/model3/design#overview https://www.tesla.com/model3/design#overview
- rootusrootus 4y agoA non-transferrable $10K premium, at that. Unless something has changed. I've always wondered what is going to happen when the early adopters start to move on to their next car without ever having received any value for the FSD license.
- clintonb 4y agoFSD was $7k in spring 2020, but your point remains.
- brandonagr2 4y agoI paid for it and have been using FSD beta for over 6 months, the most recent 10.12 is a big improvement on smoothness and further improves my confidence in the system
- leobg 4y agoThey had a falling out with MobileEye, who provided the AP 1.0 hardware. It never used LIDAR. Tesla doesn’t use LIDAR because you need to solve vision anyway. And once you solve that, LIDAR makes no more sense. (You need to solve vision anyway, because for that object, of which LIDAR tells you is exactly 12.327 ft away, you still need to figure out whether it is a trashcan or a child. And if it is a child, whether it is about to jump on the road or walking away from the road. LIDAR does not tell you these things. It can only tell you how far they are away. It is not some magical sensor which Tesla is just too cheap to employ.)
- a9h74j 4y agoIDK. Avoiding crashing into anything 12.327 ft way might be considered a feature.
- xaduha 4y ago> you still need to figure out whether it is a trashcan or a child Why? First of all don't drive into anything that moves, period. Secondly, if you can avoid bumping into anything at all, do that.
- cycomanic 4y agoI'm not sure you know what lidar is. It gives you 3D images while telling you exactly how far away things are. In fact you can much more easily determine what an object is from Lidar data. That is not to say Lidar doesn't have its issues (and there are quite a few), we likely will need a combination of sensors including cameras, lidar and radar.
- lstodd 4y agoIDK what Tesla uses, but what difference there is between LIDAR and a SAR, some zeroes on the wavelength?
- upbeat_general 4y agoThe wavelength difference has big implications in terms of the detail that can be resolved due to the surface interactions. Tesla doesn’t use their radar anymore in any case. Only monocular cameras.
- starik36 4y agoI don't know. The latest version is insanely impressive. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fwduh2kRj3M https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fwduh2kRj3M I am cautiously optimistic about future of FSD in general now.
- systemvoltage 4y agoWow, I haven't kept up with FSD but I am impressed.
- yashap 4y agoInteresting combo of very impressive, and also clearly not ready for general availability. It’s doing something noticeably wrong every few minutes. It’s so hard to guess how close this really is, but I’d guess … a few years or so? I’d imagine all those edge cases where it’s stopping too early, stopping too late, getting stuck making certain decisions, etc. will take quite awhile to iron out.
- starik36 4y agoYes, you are right. Not quite ready for GA just yet, at least not for the insanity of San Francisco driving. I would settle for having to intervene every now and then though. I have a base Tesla Model 3 and just the free "self-steer" mode is very helpful. I definitely miss it when driving one of my kids' cars.
- TheAlchemist 4y agoInsanity ? Driving anywhere in the US is an order of magnitude easier than in Europe so if it struggles there, i would like to see how it drives in Paris or Rome
- fastball 4y agoAs someone who has driven over lots of Europe and the US, this is absolutely not true in my experience.
- 4y ago
- zozbot234 4y ago> In 2015 Musk said two years. In 2016 he said two years. In 2017 he said two years. Look, the message is clear enough already: FSD is two years away, and always will be! You've got to admire that kind of consistency.
- joakleaf 4y agoUnfortunately, it is not even consistent: • In January 2021 he said end of 2021 [2]. • In May 2022 he said May 2023 [1]. So he moved from around 2 years to 1 year. Looking at the rate of progress from Tesla FSD videos on YouTube, I wouldn't bet on 2023. Whenever people talk about Tesla FSD, I always like to point to Cruise who just got a permit to carry paying riders in California [3]. Honestly, their software looks significantly smarter than Tesla's -- Highly recommend their 'Cruise Under the Hood 2021' video for anyone interested in self-driving![4] [1] https://electrek.co/2022/05/22/elon-musk-tesla-self-driving-cars-without-human-driver-next-year/ https://electrek.co/2022/05/22/elon-musk-tesla-self-driving-... [2] https://www.cnet.com/roadshow/news/elon-musk-full-self-driving-tesla-earnings-call/ https://www.cnet.com/roadshow/news/elon-musk-full-self-drivi... [3] https://www.reuters.com/business/autos-transportation/self-driving-cars-gms-cruise-could-soon-carry-paying-riders-san-francisco-2022-06-02/ https://www.reuters.com/business/autos-transportation/self-d... [4] https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uJWN0K26NxQ https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uJWN0K26NxQ
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- tonguez 4y ago
- wpietri 4y ago> I don't understand how people keep falling for this. Every successful fraud has people it's tuned for. For example, consider how terribly written most spam is. That selects for people who are not fussy about writing. Conversely, a lot of the people doing high-end financial fraud is done by people who are very polished, very good at presenting the impression of success. Or some years back I knew of a US gang running the Pigeon Drop [1] on young East Asian women in a way that was tuned to take advantage of how they are often raised. Telsa's only has ~3% of the US car market, so they're definitely in the "fool some of the people all of the time" bucket. Musk's fan base seems to be early adopters and starry-eyed techno-utopians [2]. He's not selling transportation. He's selling a dream. They don't care that experts can spot him as a liar [3] because listening to experts would, like, totally harsh their mellow. Although it's much closer to legal fraud, I don't think that's otherwise hugely different than how many cars are marketed. E.g., all of the people who are buying associations of wealth when they sign up for a BMW they can't afford. Or the ocean of people buying rugged, cowboy-associated vehicles that never use them for anything more challenging than suburban cul de sacs. [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pigeon_drop https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pigeon_drop [2] https://www.theverge.com/2018/6/26/17505744/elon-musk-fans-tesla-spacex-fandom https://www.theverge.com/2018/6/26/17505744/elon-musk-fans-t... [3] e.g.: https://twitter.com/kaifulee/status/1126238951960993792 https://twitter.com/kaifulee/status/1126238951960993792
- plorg 4y agoThere's got to be a sizeable number of people who have paid for this feature and never received it before selling the car. And of course Tesla is willing to re-sell the feature to the next driver. Are they willing to pay back customers for a function they haven't shipped?
- mikevm 4y agoApparently Tesla are probably going back to adding a radar: https://www.notateslaapp.com/news/787/tesla-registers-new-high-res-radar-could-tesla-be-changing-its-position-on-radar-and-lidar https://www.notateslaapp.com/news/787/tesla-registers-new-hi...