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a correction would imply that housing prices are inflated by artificial factors, rather than actual demand. it seems like that's mostly not true, and house pri

a correction would imply that housing prices are inflated by artificial factors, rather than actual demand. it seems like that's mostly not true, and house prices are high because the demand is simply outpacing supply. i don't see any reason to expect that the status quo can't continue and simply get worse. inequality between the homeowner class and the renter class will continue to grow. the wealthy will get to participate in the ownership market, and it'll be irrelevant for everybody else. as long as homes are treated as an investment commodity and investors can expect significant returns without having to rely on rental income, the rent market and the ownership market can be detatched from each other.

300bps 4y ago
Demand is high because there is so much money in the economy and interest rates are so low. When these reverse, demand will reverse with it. Stimulus payments, $9 trillion fed balance sheet, historically low interest rates. All in the process of stopping / reversing. https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/bst_recenttrends.htm https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/bst_recenttren...
- notatoad 4y ago
  In America, yes. But housing prices are following the same trend in most of the world, and not everywhere has quite the same economics.
UncleEntity 4y ago
> a correction would imply that housing prices are inflated by artificial factors, rather than actual demand. One of those Silicon Valley house buying companies, forgot which one, took a $500 billion haircut a few months ago for their algorithm driving up prices above actual demand. Haven’t heard anything since but I can guarantee they didn’t dump those houses at market prices, they said they were going to bundle them up and sell in bulk but don’t know how that’s working out for them.
- 5822130027 4y ago
- notatoad 4y ago
  Zillow. And yes, that happened. But also it ended, and if that was a significant factor I would have expected to see an impact in housing prices when they exited the market. Instead it made absolutely no difference.
  - foogazi 4y ago
    Zillow being a public company, we know they exited the market - but do we know what other players saw the same thing and also stopped buying ?
harambae 4y ago
>house prices are high because the demand is simply outpacing supply Any more than in the past? https://www.statista.com/statistics/183648/average-size-of-households-in-the-us/ https://www.statista.com/statistics/183648/average-size-of-h... Average people per residence has gone down over the last decade from 2.58 to 2.51 - so I'm not sure where you draw this conclusion. That graph is primarily why I believe there's speculation mania and other things going on.

300bps 4y ago

Demand is high because there is so much money in the economy and interest rates are so low. When these reverse, demand will reverse with it. Stimulus payments, $9 trillion fed balance sheet, historically low interest rates. All in the process of stopping / reversing. https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/bst_recenttrends.htm https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/bst_recenttren...

notatoad 4y ago
In America, yes. But housing prices are following the same trend in most of the world, and not everywhere has quite the same economics.

UncleEntity 4y ago

> a correction would imply that housing prices are inflated by artificial factors, rather than actual demand. One of those Silicon Valley house buying companies, forgot which one, took a $500 billion haircut a few months ago for their algorithm driving up prices above actual demand. Haven’t heard anything since but I can guarantee they didn’t dump those houses at market prices, they said they were going to bundle them up and sell in bulk but don’t know how that’s working out for them.

5822130027 4y ago
notatoad 4y ago
Zillow. And yes, that happened. But also it ended, and if that was a significant factor I would have expected to see an impact in housing prices when they exited the market. Instead it made absolutely no difference.
- foogazi 4y ago
  Zillow being a public company, we know they exited the market - but do we know what other players saw the same thing and also stopped buying ?

harambae 4y ago

>house prices are high because the demand is simply outpacing supply Any more than in the past? https://www.statista.com/statistics/183648/average-size-of-households-in-the-us/ https://www.statista.com/statistics/183648/average-size-of-h... Average people per residence has gone down over the last decade from 2.58 to 2.51 - so I'm not sure where you draw this conclusion. That graph is primarily why I believe there's speculation mania and other things going on.